Wallet analysis

2026-06-21T03:05:29+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
FE 0xfe98…3745 other 10 markets active 1h ago coverage 2d
RISKYcopy with care ⚠ High turnover⚠ Small sample
✗ too few resolved markets (<12) to judge✗ only 2d of captured history — unreliable✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died! high turnover
Total PnL −$482 (-11%) realized −$482 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +2% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -15% what you keep after slip
Net edge-15%after slip
Net WR50%break-even
Win rate70%7W / 3L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$440per market
Trades / day9.2pace
Fees−$10est.
Kalshi-fit40%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 2d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

Categories

share · PnL
other 45% +$408
sports 33% −$1,167
crypto 22% +$205
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
insufficient sample — too few resolved markets to judge
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +50%
net ROI/market (all)-7.6%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 10 +2.1% -7.6% 70% 50% -20.9%
≤30d 10 +2.1% -7.6% 70% 50% -20.9%
≤90d 10 +2.1% -7.6% 70% 50% -20.9%
all 10 +2.1% -7.6% 70% 50% -20.9%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover9.2 tr/day
realistic slip~9%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -7.6% 50% -20.9%
10% -16.5% 30% -28.5%
15% -24.5% 20% -35.4%
20% -31.9% 10% -41.8%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 46% · top 2 77% thin sample
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -13% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
29% wins margin < slip thin sample
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +2% · $-wt -13% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early —% → late —% no data
Add-ons / DCA
1.6 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$95 vs −$407 · ×0.23 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.55 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $300 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

2d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized−$482
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)70%
Wins / losses7 / 3
Est. fees paid−$10
Open positions0
Markets (closed)10 / 10
History coverage2d
Avg bet$440
Trades / day9.2
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit40%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 10 Trades
no open positions (2 resolved losses — in realized PnL)
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Ecuador vs. Curaçao end in a draw? Jun 21 $238 +$17 +7%
Will Ecuador win on 2026-06-20? Jun 21 $531 −$35 -6%
Will Germany vs. Côte d'Ivoire end in a draw? Jun 20 $1,184 −$1,175 -99%
Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-20? Jun 20 $981 +$205 +21%
Will Paraguay win on 2026-06-19? Jun 20 $613 +$307 +50%
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-19? Jun 20 $272 +$3 +1%
Will Morocco win on 2026-06-19? Jun 20 $291 +$79 +27%
Will United States win on 2026-06-19? Jun 19 $272 +$43 +16%
Will Mexico win on 2026-06-18? Jun 19 $10 +$11 +105%
Will Mexico vs. Korea Republic end in a draw? Jun 19 $10 −$10 -98%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Ecuador vs. Curaçao end in a draw? BUY Yes 93¢ $238 1h
Will Ecuador win on 2026-06-20? SELL Yes 56¢ $238 1h
Will Ecuador win on 2026-06-20? BUY Yes 59¢ $257 1h
Will Ecuador win on 2026-06-20? SELL Yes 58¢ $257 1h
Will Ecuador win on 2026-06-20? BUY Yes 60¢ $273 1h
Will Ecuador win on 2026-06-20? SELL Yes 83¢ $1 5h
Will Ecuador win on 2026-06-20? BUY Yes 84¢ $1 5h
Will Germany vs. Côte d'Ivoire end in a draw? BUY Yes 73¢ $1,184 5h
Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-20? BUY Yes 90¢ $437 9h
Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-20? BUY Yes 77¢ $544 9h
Will Paraguay win on 2026-06-19? BUY Yes 66¢ $613 22h
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-19? BUY Yes 95¢ $261 26h
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-19? BUY No 13¢ $10 26h
Will Morocco win on 2026-06-19? BUY Yes 79¢ $272 27h
Will Morocco win on 2026-06-19? BUY Yes 79¢ $9 29h
Will Morocco win on 2026-06-19? BUY Yes 59¢ $10 29h
Will United States win on 2026-06-19? BUY Yes 86¢ $272 31h
Will Mexico vs. Korea Republic end in a draw? BUY Yes 36¢ $10 2d
Will Mexico win on 2026-06-18? BUY Yes 48¢ $10 2d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 26 history records