Wallet analysis

2026-06-15T03:45:11+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

4.0

score

FE 0xfe97…96eb other 20 markets active 0h ago coverage 4d

TRAPdo not copy ⚠ High turnover⚠ Small sample

✗ profits on perfect fills only — loses on real! high turnover! limited sample (<25 closed)

Total PnL +$140 (+12%) realized +$142 · open −$2

Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗

Gross ROI / mkt +16% what the leader earns

→−copy tax

Net edge / mkt -3% what you keep after slip

Net edge-3%after slip

Net WR47%break-even

Win rate53%9W / 8L

Drawdown4%max

Avg bet$57per market

Trades / day14.9pace

Fees−$4est.

Kalshi-fit50%portable

Net worth$257now

Equity curve

realized PnL

Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 4d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net

trap: profits on perfect fill only, loses on real

break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even

chance a trade nets +47%

net ROI/market (all)+4.8%

timeframe	markets	gross ROI	NET ROI	gross WR	NET WR	net PnL (wtd)
≤7d	17	+15.9%	+4.8%	53%	47%	+4.1%
≤30d	17	+15.9%	+4.8%	53%	47%	+4.1%
≤90d	17	+15.9%	+4.8%	53%	47%	+4.1%
all	17	+15.9%	+4.8%	53%	47%	+4.1%

gross = as the leader traded. net = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip

turnover14.9 tr/day

realistic slip~9%

edge survives to5%

copier slippage	NET ROI	NET WR	net PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here	+4.8%	47%	+4.1%
10%	-5.2%	41%	-5.8%
15%	-14.4%	24%	-14.9%
20%	-22.7%	24%	-23.3%

Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a trap: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill

Profit concentration

top 34% · top 2 55% thin sample

Edge freshness (90d)

90d ROI +15% fresh edge ✓

Fragile wins

11% wins margin < slip thin sample

Flat-copyable

equal-wt +16% · $-wt +15% works when copied flat

Big bets

big-bet WR —% no data

Persistence

early +27% → late +6% edge persists early→late

Add-ons / DCA

1.6 add-ons/market adds to positions

Win / loss size

+$16 vs −$2 · ×8.15 wins bigger than losses

Profit factor

×9.16 per $1 lost it wins $9.16

Copy size

≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

4d coverage

Net worth$257

Realized+$142

Unrealized−$2

Win rate (resolved)53%

Wins / losses9 / 8

Est. fees paid−$4

Open positions3

Markets (closed)17 / 20

History coverage4d

Avg bet$57

Trades / day14.9

Drawdown4%

Kalshi-fit50%

Ledger

positions · history · trades

Positions 3 History 17 Trades

Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket

Market	outcome	entry	now	invested	value	unrealized PnL
UFC Freedom 250: Justin Gaethje vs. Ilia Topuria (Lightweight, Main Card)	Ilia Topuria	80¢	80¢	$195	$194	−$1 (-1%)
Will Ilia Topuria win by KO or TKO?	Yes	67¢	66¢	$39	$38	−$1 (-2%)
UFC Freedom 250: Ciryl Gane vs. Alex Pereira (Heavyweight, Main Card)	Alex Pereira	51¢	52¢	$26	$26	+$0 (+1%)

Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).

Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first

Market	when	invested	PnL	ROI
UFC Freedom 250: Aiemann Zahabi vs. Sean O'Malley (Bantamweight, Main	Jun 15	$20	+$5	+26%
UFC Freedom 250: Derrick Lewis vs. Josh Hokit (Heavyweight, Main Card)	Jun 15	$17	+$4	+23%
UFC Freedom 250: Steve Garcia vs. Diego Lopes (Featherweight, Main Car	Jun 15	$10	+$6	+63%
Will Lamine Yamal be the top goalscorer at the 2026 FIFA World Cup?	Jun 14	$10	−$1	-12%
Will Ferran Torres be the top goalscorer at the 2026 FIFA World Cup?	Jun 14	$10	−$1	-13%
Will Raphinha be the top goalscorer at the 2026 FIFA World Cup?	Jun 14	$10	−$3	-29%
Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-14?	Jun 14	$228	+$11	+5%
Netherlands vs. Japan: O/U 1.5	Jun 14	$60	$0	-0%
Netherlands vs. Japan: Both Teams to Score	Jun 14	$30	−$1	-5%
Will Netherlands win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?	Jun 14	$41	−$3	-7%
Exact Score: Brazil 1 - 2 Morocco?	Jun 13	$5	+$3	+64%
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-13?	Jun 13	$51	+$32	+62%
Will Switzerland win on 2026-06-13?	Jun 13	$187	+$24	+13%
Will United States win on 2026-06-12?	Jun 13	$79	+$50	+63%
Will Canada win on 2026-06-12?	Jun 12	$51	−$5	-10%
United States vs. Paraguay: O/U 2.5	Jun 12	$20	−$1	-4%
Will Mexico win on 2026-06-11?	Jun 11	$40	+$13	+33%

Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.

Latest trades by this wallet

Market	side	price	size	when
UFC Freedom 250: Ciryl Gane vs. Alex Pereira (Heavyweight, Main Card)	BUY Alex Pereira	51¢	$26	11m
UFC Freedom 250: Aiemann Zahabi vs. Sean O'Malley (Bantamweight, Main	SELL Sean OMalley	99¢	$25	21m
UFC Freedom 250: Aiemann Zahabi vs. Sean O'Malley (Bantamweight, Main	BUY Sean OMalley	78¢	$20	44m
UFC Freedom 250: Derrick Lewis vs. Josh Hokit (Heavyweight, Main Card)	SELL Josh Hokit	99¢	$21	55m
UFC Freedom 250: Derrick Lewis vs. Josh Hokit (Heavyweight, Main Card)	BUY Josh Hokit	80¢	$17	1h
UFC Freedom 250: Steve Garcia vs. Diego Lopes (Featherweight, Main Car	SELL Diego Lopes	99¢	$0	2h
UFC Freedom 250: Steve Garcia vs. Diego Lopes (Featherweight, Main Car	SELL Diego Lopes	99¢	$16	2h
UFC Freedom 250: Steve Garcia vs. Diego Lopes (Featherweight, Main Car	BUY Diego Lopes	60¢	$10	2h
Will Ilia Topuria win by KO or TKO?	SELL Yes	62¢	$11	2h
UFC Freedom 250: Justin Gaethje vs. Ilia Topuria (Lightweight, Main Ca	BUY Ilia Topuria	80¢	$45	3h
Will Ilia Topuria win by KO or TKO?	BUY Yes	67¢	$50	3h
UFC Freedom 250: Justin Gaethje vs. Ilia Topuria (Lightweight, Main Ca	BUY Ilia Topuria	80¢	$151	3h
Will Lamine Yamal be the top goalscorer at the 2026 FIFA World Cup?	SELL Yes	4¢	$9	4h
Will Ferran Torres be the top goalscorer at the 2026 FIFA World Cup?	SELL Yes	2¢	$9	4h
Will Raphinha be the top goalscorer at the 2026 FIFA World Cup?	SELL Yes	1¢	$7	4h
Will Raphinha be the top goalscorer at the 2026 FIFA World Cup?	BUY Yes	1¢	$10	4h
Will Lamine Yamal be the top goalscorer at the 2026 FIFA World Cup?	BUY Yes	4¢	$10	4h
Will Ferran Torres be the top goalscorer at the 2026 FIFA World Cup?	BUY Yes	2¢	$10	4h
Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-14?	SELL Yes	74¢	$102	6h
Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-14?	BUY Yes	41¢	$27	6h
Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-14?	BUY Yes	41¢	$31	6h
Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-14?	SELL Yes	39¢	$108	7h
Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-14?	BUY Yes	49¢	$40	7h
Netherlands vs. Japan: O/U 1.5	SELL Over	74¢	$60	7h
Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-14?	BUY Yes	52¢	$20	7h
Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-14?	BUY Yes	50¢	$18	7h
Netherlands vs. Japan: O/U 1.5	BUY Over	73¢	$60	8h
Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-14?	BUY Yes	46¢	$20	8h
Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-14?	BUY Yes	47¢	$41	9h
Netherlands vs. Japan: Both Teams to Score	SELL Yes	53¢	$29	9h

From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.

✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $257.41 · official $257.41 (match) · 54 history records