trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?
| Market | when | invested | PnL | ROI |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Will Peru win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? | Jun 12 | $18,366 | −$18,366 | -100% |
| Will Italy win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? | Jun 12 | $18,366 | −$18,366 | -100% |
| Will Bitcoin dip to $55,000 in June? | Jun 08 | $16,218 | −$1,800 | -11% |
| Will Bitcoin dip to $35,000 in May? | Jun 01 | $1 | $0 | +0% |
| Will Bitcoin dip to $55,000 in May? | Jun 01 | $37,275 | +$64 | +0% |
| Will Bitcoin dip to $30,000 in May? | Jun 01 | $39,960 | +$40 | +0% |
| Will Bitcoin dip to $50,000 in May? | Jun 01 | $50,412 | +$15,595 | +31% |
| Will Bitcoin dip to $45,000 in May? | Jun 01 | $35,567 | +$4,433 | +12% |
| Will Victor Wembanyama win the 2026 Western Conference Finals MVP? | May 31 | $385 | +$555 | +144% |
| Will Oklahoma City Thunder advance to the 2026 NBA Finals? | May 30 | $9 | −$9 | -100% |
| Will the San Antonio Spurs win the NBA Western Conference Finals? | May 30 | $578 | +$1 | +0% |
| Will San Antonio Spurs advance to the 2026 NBA Finals? | May 30 | $576 | −$576 | -100% |
| timeframe | markets | gross ROI | NET ROI | gross WR | NET WR | net PnL (wtd) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| ≤7d | 3 | -70.4% | -73.2% | 0% | 0% | -75.4% |
| ≤30d | 12 | -18.6% | -26.4% | 58% | 25% | -17.2% |
| ≤90d | 12 | -18.6% | -26.4% | 58% | 25% | -17.2% |
| all | 12 | -18.6% | -26.4% | 58% | 25% | -17.2% |
| copier slippage | NET ROI | NET WR | net PnL (wtd) |
|---|---|---|---|
| 5% ideal | -26.4% | 25% | -17.2% |
| 10% | -33.4% | 17% | -25.1% |
| 15% ← realistic here | -39.8% | 8% | -32.3% |
| 20% | -45.7% | 8% | -39.0% |