Wallet analysis

2026-06-18T11:46:44+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

2.0
score
FE 0xfe91…70ff other 227 markets active 475d ago coverage 99d ⚠
UNRELIABLEdata unreliable ⚠ High turnover⚠ Covers last 99d onlyP/L from Polymarket (history capped)
✗ on-chain reconstruction ≠ official P&L (longshot/capped history)! high turnover
Total PnL −$170,230 (-119%) realized −$170,230 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +345% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt +242% what you keep after slip
Net edge+242%after slip
Net WR45%break-even
Win rate58%227W / 164L
Whale WR95%big bets
Drawdown8%max
Avg bet$632per market
Trades / day24.6pace
Kalshi-fit61%portable
Net worth$6now

Equity curve

realized PnL
Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 99d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 41% +$120,630
other 32% +$79,909
politics 16% +$54,356
economics 6% +$5,031
finance 3% +$12,156
world 1% +$18,411
weather 1% +$1,781
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
borderline — thin edge, slippage-sensitive
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +45%
net ROI/market (all)+302.4%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 164 +121.7% +100.6% 21% 21% +345.9%
≤30d 164 +121.7% +100.6% 21% 21% +345.9%
≤90d 164 +121.7% +100.6% 21% 21% +345.9%
all 391 +344.8% +302.4% 58% 45% +97.6%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover24.6 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to20%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal +302.4% 45% +97.6%
10% ← realistic here +263.9% 41% +78.7%
15% +228.8% 38% +61.4%
20% +196.5% 36% +45.6%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 16% · top 2 25% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +430% fresh edge ✓
Fragile wins
22% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +345% · $-wt +230% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 95% (≥$500) strong on big bets
Persistence
early +509% → late +181% edge persists early→late
Add-ons / DCA
9.3 add-ons/market averages down — deposit killer
Win / loss size
+$1,817 vs −$237 · ×7.67 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×10.62 per $1 lost it wins $10.62
Copy size
≥ $300 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

99d coverage
Net worth$6
Realized−$170,230
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)58%
Wins / losses227 / 164
Whale WR (big bets)95%
Open positions0
Markets (closed)391 / 227
History coverage99d ⚠
Avg bet$632
Trades / day24.6
Drawdown8%
Kalshi-fit61%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 391 Trades
no open positions (163 resolved losses — in realized PnL)
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Donald Trump be President of the USA on January 6, 2023? Jun 18 $3 +$3 +100%
Will Sacramento Kings be 2023-24 NBA Champions? Jun 18 $16 −$16 -100%
Will the Arizona Diamondbacks win the World Series? Jun 18 $191 +$2,653 +1388%
Will LeBron James lead the NBA in scoring? Jun 18 $15 −$15 -100%
Will the Yankees win the World Series 4-0? Jun 18 $64 −$64 -100%
Will Carlos Alcaraz win the US Open? Jun 18 $144 +$857 +594%
Will the West Indies win the ICC T20 Cricket World Cup? Jun 18 $57 −$57 -100%
Philadelphia Flyers win the 2024 Stanley Cup? Jun 18 $40 −$40 -100%
Will Philadelphia 76ers be 2023-24 NBA Champions? Jun 18 $16 −$16 -100%
Will the Los Angeles Angels win the World Series? Jun 18 $558 +$1,865 +334%
Will Anfernee Simons lead the NBA in scoring? Jun 18 $15 −$15 -100%
Will Jaylen Brown lead the NBA in scoring? Jun 18 $15 −$15 -100%
Will Anthony Davis lead the NBA in scoring? Jun 18 $15 −$15 -100%
Will Lauri Markkanen lead the NBA in scoring? Jun 18 $15 −$15 -100%
Will Stephen Curry lead the NBA in scoring? Jun 18 $15 −$15 -100%
Chris Eubank Jr. biggest loser? Jun 18 $6 −$6 -100%
Tampa Bay Lightning win the 2024 Stanley Cup? Jun 18 $40 −$40 -100%
Will Raiders vs. Chargers be the highest scoring game of Week 1? Jun 18 $67 −$67 -100%
Will Trump win no swing states? Jun 18 $61 −$5,458 -8955%
Will Alexander Zverev win the US Open? Jun 18 $49 +$2,203 +4516%
Will Andrey Rublev win the US Open? Jun 18 $49 +$163 +334%
Trump posts less than 10 times on X? Jun 18 $372 −$372 -100%
Will DeMar DeRozan lead the NBA in scoring? Jun 18 $15 −$15 -100%
Will Chiefs vs. Ravens be highest scoring game Week 1? Jun 18 $67 −$24 -35%
Will Elon tweet 80-99 times? Jun 18 $165 −$259 -157%
Will Kawhi Leonard lead the NBA in scoring? Jun 18 $15 −$15 -100%
Will Jayson Tatum make the most 3-pointers in the 2024 NBA Finals seri Jun 18 $3 −$3 -100%
Will Florian Wirtz be Euro 2024 top scorer? Jun 18 $168 −$168 -100%
Will the Atlanta Braves win the National League? Jun 18 $212 −$212 -100%
Will Denver Nuggets be 2023-24 NBA Champions? Jun 18 $16 −$16 -100%
Will the Cincinnati Reds win the World Series? Jun 18 $558 +$2,543 +456%
Washington Capitals win the 2024 Stanley Cup Jun 18 $40 −$40 -100%
Will Ian Nepomniachtchi win the Speed Chess Championship? Jun 18 $109 −$504 -464%
Nashville Predators win the 2024 Stanley Cup? Jun 18 $40 −$40 -100%
Will the San Francisco Giants win the World Series? Jun 18 $558 +$1,826 +328%
Toronto Maple Leafs win the 2024 Stanley Cup? Jun 18 $40 −$40 -100%
Will Minnesota Timberwolves be 2023-24 NBA Champions? Jun 18 $16 −$16 -100%
Will the Houston Astros win the World Series? Jun 18 $191 +$4,037 +2112%
Will Chicago Bulls be 2023-24 NBA Champions? Jun 18 $16 −$16 -100%
Will Donovan Mitchell lead the NBA in scoring? Jun 18 $15 −$15 -100%
Will another player lead the NBA in scoring? Jun 18 $15 −$15 -100%
Will Joel Embiid lead the NBA in scoring? Jun 18 $15 −$15 -100%
Jon Vlogs biggest loser? Jun 18 $5 −$5 -100%
Will Trump win 1 swing state? Jun 18 $61 −$3,425 -5619%
Will Novak Djokovic win the US Open? Jun 18 $144 +$1,004 +696%
Will another team win the Serie A? Jun 18 $183 −$183 -100%
Will De’Aaron Fox lead the NBA in scoring? Jun 18 $15 −$15 -100%
Will Nikola Jokic lead the NBA in scoring? Jun 18 $15 −$15 -100%
Will Kyrie Irving lead the NBA in scoring? Jun 18 $15 −$15 -100%
Will the Miami Marlins win the World Series? Jun 18 $558 +$1,127 +202%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Frankfurt win the Bundesliga? SELL No 100¢ $828 474d
Will Real Madrid win La Liga? SELL Yes 69¢ $5,049 506d
Will Real Madrid win La Liga? SELL Yes 69¢ $6,210 506d
Will Texas win the 2025 College Football Playoff? SELL Yes 16¢ $3 523d
Will Texas win the 2025 College Football Playoff? SELL Yes 17¢ $180 523d
Will Texas win the 2025 College Football Playoff? SELL Yes 17¢ $1,530 523d
Will Texas win the 2025 College Football Playoff? SELL Yes 18¢ $135 523d
Will Texas win the 2025 College Football Playoff? SELL Yes 18¢ $1,620 523d
Will Texas win the 2025 College Football Playoff? SELL Yes 18¢ $1,620 523d
Will Texas win the 2025 College Football Playoff? SELL Yes 18¢ $1,620 523d
Will the Bengals win the AFC Championship? SELL Yes 0¢ $2 528d
Will the Bengals win the AFC Championship? SELL Yes 0¢ $6 528d
Will the Bengals win the AFC Championship? SELL Yes 0¢ $11 528d
Will the Cincinnati Bengals make the 2024-25 NFL Playoffs? SELL Yes 0¢ $0 528d
Will the Cincinnati Bengals make the 2024-25 NFL Playoffs? SELL Yes 0¢ $0 528d
Will Barcelona win La Liga? SELL No 71¢ $931 531d
Will the Toronto Raptors win the Eastern Conference? SELL Yes 0¢ $6 535d
Will the Colts win the AFC Championship? SELL Yes 0¢ $15 535d
Will the Bills win Super Bowl 2025? SELL Yes 14¢ $575 537d
Will the Atlanta Hawks win the 2025 NBA Finals? SELL Yes 1¢ $29 538d
Will the Atlanta Hawks win the 2025 NBA Finals? SELL Yes 1¢ $63 538d
Will the Atlanta Hawks win the 2025 NBA Finals? SELL Yes 1¢ $63 538d
Will the Toronto Raptors win the 2025 NBA Finals? SELL Yes 0¢ $23 538d
Will the Utah Jazz win the 2025 NBA Finals? SELL Yes 0¢ $36 538d
Will the Utah Jazz win the 2025 NBA Finals? SELL Yes 0¢ $36 538d
Will the Portland Trail Blazers win the 2025 NBA Finals? SELL Yes 0¢ $9 538d
Will the Portland Trail Blazers win the 2025 NBA Finals? SELL Yes 0¢ $24 538d
Will the Portland Trail Blazers win the 2025 NBA Finals? SELL Yes 0¢ $45 538d
Will the Portland Trail Blazers win the 2025 NBA Finals? SELL Yes 0¢ $45 538d
Will the Chicago Bulls win the 2025 NBA Finals? SELL Yes 1¢ $37 538d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $6.00 · official $6.00 (match) · 3500 history records