Wallet analysis

2026-06-23T02:03:20+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

2.0
score
FE 0xfe8e…17a5 other 41 markets active 2h ago coverage 465d
TRAPdo not copy Fresh edge
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ profit hinges on one bet (luck, not edge)✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage
Total PnL +$12 (+2%) realized +$12 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +2% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -8% what you keep after slip
Net edge-8%after slip
Net WR2%break-even
Win rate41%17W / 24L
Drawdown9%max
Avg bet$17per market
Trades / day0.3pace
Kalshi-fit51%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days$0
7 days$0
14 days$0
30 days+$0
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
other 47% +$10
world 27% $0
sports 14% $0
politics 7% +$1
tech 2% $0
crypto 2% $0
economics 1% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +2%
net ROI/market (all)-7.6%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 1 +0.0% -9.5% 0% 0% -9.5%
≤30d 5 +0.7% -8.9% 20% 0% -9.4%
≤90d 6 +0.6% -9.0% 33% 0% -9.4%
all 41 +2.2% -7.6% 41% 2% -8.0%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.3 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -7.6% 2% -8.0%
10% -16.4% 2% -16.8%
15% -24.5% 2% -24.9%
20% -31.9% 2% -32.2%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 69% · top 2 80% profit hinges on 1 bet — luck, not edge
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +0% too few recent
Fragile wins
94% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +2% · $-wt +2% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +1% → late +3% edge persists early→late
Add-ons / DCA
1.4 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$1 vs −$0 · ×4.19 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×7.92 per $1 lost it wins $7.92
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

465d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized+$12
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)41%
Wins / losses17 / 24
Open positions0
Markets (closed)41 / 41
History coverage465d
Avg bet$17
Trades / day0.3
Drawdown9%
Kalshi-fit51%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 41 Trades
no open positions
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 15? Jun 23 $27 $0 +0%
Iran closes its airspace by May 31? May 26 $57 −$1 -2%
Iran closes its airspace by June 30? May 26 $26 +$2 +6%
Will China invade Taiwan by end of 2026? May 25 $27 $0 +0%
Ukraine agrees not to join NATO by June 30? May 24 $27 $0 -0%
Will Reza Pahlavi enter Iran by June 30? May 23 $27 $0 +0%
Will the Green Bay Packers win Super Bowl 2026? Jan 12 $6 $0 -1%
Will Real Oviedo win on 2025-12-20? Dec 16 $57 $0 +0%
Chiefs vs. Titans Dec 15 $23 $0 +0%
Will Dortmund win the 2025–26 Champions League? Dec 15 $23 $0 +0%
Will Wolverhampton Wanderers FC win on 2025-12-20? Dec 15 $23 $0 +0%
Eagles vs. Commanders Dec 15 $23 $0 +0%
Will Girona FC win on 2025-12-21? Dec 15 $34 $0 +0%
Will Crystal Palace win on 2025-11-30? Dec 12 $15 +$9 +64%
Will Liverpool win on 2025-12-03? Nov 26 $15 $0 +0%
Will Fulham win on 2025-12-02? Nov 26 $36 $0 +0%
Will Atletico Madrid win on 2025-11-29? Nov 25 $5 $0 +0%
Will Burnley FC win on 2025-12-03? Nov 25 $17 $0 +0%
Will Chelsea win on 2025-11-30? Nov 25 $6 $0 +0%
Will the Detroit Lions win Super Bowl 2026? Nov 20 $14 +$1 +4%
Will Atletico Madrid win the 2025–26 Champions League? Oct 24 $15 $0 +0%
Will Chelsea win the 2025–26 English Premier League? Oct 24 $3 $0 +1%
Will Elon Musk be the #1 searched person on Google this year? Oct 23 $14 $0 -0%
Will Trump pardon Sam Bankman-Fried in 2025? Oct 23 $8 $0 -0%
Will Eduardo del Castillo win the 2025 Bolivia presidential election? Oct 21 $14 $0 +2%
Will Elon tweet 240–254 times June 27–July 4? Jul 02 $13 $0 +1%
Will the New York Mets win the 2025 World Series? Jul 01 $14 $0 +0%
Will the Texas Rangers win the 2025 World Series? Jun 27 $16 $0 +2%
Will the Memphis Grizzlies win the Western Conference? Apr 14 $15 $0 +0%
Will Scott Stringer win the Democratic Primary for Mayor of New York C Apr 11 $1 $0 +4%
Will Bayer Leverkusen win the Bundesliga? Apr 11 $14 $0 -0%
Will Frankfurt win the UEFA Europa League? Apr 10 $15 $0 +0%
Will CDU/CSU and AfD form the next German Government? Apr 07 $15 $0 +0%
Yoon out as president of South Korea before April? Apr 03 $14 +$1 +6%
Will Bitcoin dip to $70,000 by March 31? Mar 26 $13 $0 +1%
Will the Winnipeg Jets win the 2025 Stanley Cup? Mar 25 $2 $0 -1%
Will Netherlands win Eurovision 2025? Mar 24 $2 $0 +0%
Will Trump's approval rating be between 46.0% and 46.4% on March 28? Mar 23 $13 $0 -1%
Will Jerome Powell say "Tariff" during the March meeting? Mar 21 $8 $0 +3%
Will the Los Angeles Lakers win the Western Conference? Mar 19 $7 $0 +0%
Will Elon tweet 600-624 times March 14-21? Mar 15 $14 $0 -2%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 15? SELL No 70¢ $27 1h
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 15? BUY No 70¢ $27 4h
Iran closes its airspace by May 31? SELL No 84¢ $30 27d
Iran closes its airspace by May 31? BUY No 84¢ $30 27d
Iran closes its airspace by June 30? SELL No 71¢ $28 27d
Iran closes its airspace by June 30? BUY No 67¢ $26 27d
Iran closes its airspace by May 31? SELL No 78¢ $10 28d
Iran closes its airspace by May 31? SELL No 78¢ $16 28d
Iran closes its airspace by May 31? BUY No 82¢ $27 28d
Will China invade Taiwan by end of 2026? SELL No 93¢ $27 28d
Will China invade Taiwan by end of 2026? BUY No 93¢ $27 28d
Ukraine agrees not to join NATO by June 30? SELL No 96¢ $24 29d
Ukraine agrees not to join NATO by June 30? SELL No 96¢ $3 29d
Ukraine agrees not to join NATO by June 30? BUY No 96¢ $27 29d
Will Reza Pahlavi enter Iran by June 30? SELL No 97¢ $15 30d
Will Reza Pahlavi enter Iran by June 30? SELL No 97¢ $13 30d
Will Reza Pahlavi enter Iran by June 30? BUY No 97¢ $27 30d
Will Real Oviedo win on 2025-12-20? SELL No 73¢ $23 188d
Will Real Oviedo win on 2025-12-20? BUY No 73¢ $23 189d
Chiefs vs. Titans SELL Titans 36¢ $23 189d
Chiefs vs. Titans BUY Titans 36¢ $23 189d
Will Dortmund win the 2025–26 Champions League? SELL No 99¢ $23 189d
Will Dortmund win the 2025–26 Champions League? BUY No 99¢ $23 189d
Will Wolverhampton Wanderers FC win on 2025-12-20? SELL No 75¢ $23 189d
Will Wolverhampton Wanderers FC win on 2025-12-20? BUY No 75¢ $23 189d
Will Real Oviedo win on 2025-12-20? SELL No 73¢ $23 189d
Will Real Oviedo win on 2025-12-20? BUY No 73¢ $23 189d
Eagles vs. Commanders SELL Commanders 29¢ $23 189d
Eagles vs. Commanders BUY Commanders 29¢ $11 189d
Eagles vs. Commanders BUY Commanders 29¢ $8 189d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 135 history records