Wallet analysis

2026-06-27T21:57:05+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

1.0
score
FE 0xfe8d…0adf crypto 51 markets active 2h ago coverage 526d
TRAPdo not copy crypto specialistFresh edge
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage! concentrated profit (few bets)
Total PnL −$13 (-0%) realized −$13 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -2% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -11% what you keep after slip
Net edge-11%after slip
Net WR0%break-even
Win rate82%41W / 9L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$119per market
Trades / day0.1pace
Kalshi-fit86%portable
Net worth$53now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days$0
7 days$0
14 days$0
30 days+$0
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
other 85% −$6
crypto 10% +$1
tech 3% +$1
politics 1% $0
sports 0% $0
world 0% −$10
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +0%
net ROI/market (all)-11.2%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d no closed markets
≤30d 2 +0.1% -9.4% 100% 0% -9.4%
≤90d 7 +0.1% -9.4% 100% 0% -9.4%
all 50 -1.9% -11.2% 82% 0% -9.7%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.1 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -11.2% 0% -9.7%
10% -19.7% 0% -18.4%
15% -27.5% 0% -26.2%
20% -34.6% 0% -33.5%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 36% · top 2 52% concentrated in a few bets
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +0% too few recent
Fragile wins
100% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -2% · $-wt -0% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -4% → late +0% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.1 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$0 vs −$2 · ×0.04 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.18 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

526d coverage
Net worth$53
Realized−$13
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)82%
Wins / losses41 / 9
Open positions1
Markets (closed)50 / 51
History coverage526d
Avg bet$119
Trades / day0.1
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit86%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 50 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Bitcoin reach $77,500 in June? No 100¢ 100¢ $53 $53 +$0 (+0%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Ethereum dip to $1,400 in May? Jun 03 $10 $0 +0%
Will Bitcoin dip to $45,000 in May? Jun 03 $47 $0 +0%
Will Ethereum dip to $1,400 in April? May 05 $3 $0 +0%
Will Ethereum dip to $1,200 in April? May 05 $11 $0 +0%
Will Solana reach $140 in April? May 05 $46 $0 +0%
Will Dogecoin dip to $0.05 in March? Apr 01 $23 $0 +0%
Will BNB dip to $300 in March? Apr 01 $27 $0 +0%
Will Dogecoin reach $0.15 in February? Mar 03 $29 $0 +0%
Will Hyperliquid reach $52 in February? Mar 03 $31 $0 +0%
Will XRP reach $4.00 in January? Feb 01 $57 $0 +0%
Will XRP reach $2.80 in December? Jan 01 $19 $0 +0%
Will XRP reach $6.00 before 2026? Jan 01 $38 $0 +0%
Will Anthropic have the best AI model at the end of November 2025? Dec 02 $42 $0 +0%
Will Google have the best AI model on October 31? Nov 04 $14 $0 +1%
Will Solana dip to $120 in October? Nov 04 $31 $0 +0%
Will NVIDIA be the largest company in the world by market cap on Septe Oct 02 $16 $0 +0%
Will XRP reach $6.00 in September? Oct 02 $28 $0 +0%
Will Solana dip to $150 in August? Sep 02 $8 $0 +0%
Will Google have the top AI model on August 31? Sep 02 $19 $0 +0%
Will xAI have the top AI model on August 31? Sep 02 $27 $0 +0%
Will Bitcoin dip to $60K in July? Aug 03 $14 $0 +0%
Will Bitcoin reach $200K in July? Aug 03 $40 $0 +0%
Will Solana dip to $80 in June? Jul 04 $16 $0 +0%
Will XRP dip to $1.7 in June? Jul 04 $20 $0 +0%
Trump x Ukraine mineral deal signed before May? Jun 15 $10 −$10 -100%
Will Bitcoin dip to $80k in May? Jun 15 $3 $0 +0%
Will Bitcoin dip to $85k in May? Jun 15 $12 $0 +0%
Will Ethereum reach $3500 in May? Jun 15 $12 $0 +0%
Will DeepSeek have the top AI model on April 30? May 03 $7 $0 +1%
Will XRP dip to $1.50 in April? May 03 $9 $0 +0%
Trump severs ties with Ukraine before May? May 03 $12 $0 +0%
Will Dogecoin dip to $0.09 in April? May 03 $16 $0 +0%
Will Serbia win Eurovision 2025? Apr 12 $5,069 −$5 -0%
Bitcoin all time high by March 31? Apr 01 $7 $0 +0%
Will Solana dip to $100 by March? Apr 01 $7 $0 +2%
Ethereum all time high by March 31? Apr 01 $8 $0 +0%
Solana all time high by March 31? Apr 01 $9 $0 +0%
Will Latvia win Eurovision 2025? Mar 23 $24 $0 -0%
Will Jaxson Dart be the first pick of the 2025 NFL Draft? Mar 21 $28 $0 -0%
Will the Philadelphia 76ers finish with the worst regular season recor Mar 18 $19 $0 -0%
Will Cale Makar win the Hart Trophy? Mar 14 $17 $0 -0%
Will Trump post 140-159 times on Truth Feb 21-28? Mar 04 $13 $0 +0%
Will Alibaba have the top AI model on February 28? Mar 04 $23 $0 +0%
Will NVIDIA be the largest company in the world by market cap on Febru Mar 04 $31 +$1 +3%
Will Ethereum hit $4,000 by January 31, 2025? Feb 07 $11 $0 +0%
Will $Trump FDV be $15-20b on Feb 1? Feb 07 $13 $0 +3%
Will another model be the top AI model on January 31? Feb 07 $16 $0 +0%
Will the Montreal Canadiens win the 2025 President’s Trophy? Jan 27 $23 $0 -0%
Ethereum above $3,400 on January 24? Jan 18 $5 $0 -3%
Will the Lions win Super Bowl 2025? Jan 18 $13 −$1 -5%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Bitcoin reach $77,500 in June? BUY No 100¢ $53 1h
Will Ethereum dip to $1,400 in May? BUY No 100¢ $10 29d
Will Bitcoin dip to $45,000 in May? BUY No 100¢ $47 30d
Will Ethereum dip to $1,400 in April? BUY No 100¢ $3 61d
Will Ethereum dip to $1,200 in April? BUY No 100¢ $11 62d
Will Solana reach $140 in April? BUY No 100¢ $46 62d
Will Dogecoin dip to $0.05 in March? BUY No 100¢ $23 92d
Will BNB dip to $300 in March? BUY No 100¢ $27 93d
Will Dogecoin reach $0.15 in February? BUY No 100¢ $7 120d
Will Dogecoin reach $0.15 in February? BUY No 100¢ $22 121d
Will Hyperliquid reach $52 in February? BUY No 100¢ $31 122d
Will XRP reach $4.00 in January? BUY No 100¢ $13 150d
Will XRP reach $4.00 in January? BUY No 100¢ $45 150d
Will XRP reach $2.80 in December? BUY No 100¢ $5 180d
Will XRP reach $2.80 in December? BUY No 100¢ $14 180d
Will XRP reach $6.00 before 2026? BUY No 100¢ $38 182d
Will Anthropic have the best AI model at the end of November 2025? BUY No 100¢ $42 211d
Will Google have the best AI model on October 31? BUY Yes 99¢ $14 241d
Will Solana dip to $120 in October? BUY No 100¢ $31 243d
Will NVIDIA be the largest company in the world by market cap on Septe BUY Yes 100¢ $16 272d
Will XRP reach $6.00 in September? BUY No 100¢ $28 273d
Will Solana dip to $150 in August? BUY No 100¢ $8 300d
Will Google have the top AI model on August 31? BUY Yes 100¢ $19 301d
Will xAI have the top AI model on August 31? BUY No 100¢ $27 302d
Will Bitcoin dip to $60K in July? BUY No 100¢ $14 334d
Will Bitcoin reach $200K in July? BUY No 100¢ $40 334d
Will XRP dip to $1.7 in June? BUY No 100¢ $20 362d
Will Solana dip to $80 in June? BUY No 100¢ $16 365d
Will Ethereum reach $3500 in May? BUY No 100¢ $12 393d
Will Bitcoin dip to $85k in May? BUY No 100¢ $12 393d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $53.27 · official $53.27 (match) · 107 history records