Wallet analysis

2026-06-18T08:36:17+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

2.0
score
FE 0xfe89…f346 other 13 markets active 2h ago coverage 76d
TRAPdo not copy ⚠ Small sample
✗ negative after realistic slippage! limited sample (<25 closed)
Total PnL −$4 (-0%) realized −$4 · open +$0
Gross ROI / mkt -0% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -10% what you keep after slip
Net edge-10%after slip
Net WR0%break-even
Win rate0%0W / 13L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$331per market
Trades / day0.5pace
Kalshi-fit54%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$5
7 days−$5
14 days−$5
30 days−$5
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
other 37% −$2
politics 33% −$2
world 29% −$1
economics 1% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +0%
net ROI/market (all)-9.6%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 4 -0.1% -9.6% 0% 0% -9.6%
≤30d 4 -0.1% -9.6% 0% 0% -9.6%
≤90d 13 -0.1% -9.6% 0% 0% -9.6%
all 13 -0.1% -9.6% 0% 0% -9.6%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.5 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -9.6% 0% -9.6%
10% -18.3% 0% -18.3%
15% -26.2% 0% -26.2%
20% -33.4% 0% -33.4%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top —% · top 2 —% thin sample
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -0% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
—% wins margin < slip thin sample
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -0% · $-wt -0% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -0% → late -0% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.7 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
— vs −$0 no data
Profit factor
×0.0 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $300 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

76d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized−$4
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)0%
Wins / losses0 / 13
Open positions0
Markets (closed)13 / 13
History coverage76d
Avg bet$331
Trades / day0.5
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit54%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 13 Trades
no open positions
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Mathilde Panot win the 2027 French presidential election? Jun 18 $1,257 −$2 -0%
Will Dinorah Figuera be the leader of Venezuela end of 2026? Jun 18 $65 $0 -0%
Will Yair Golan be the next Prime Minister of Israel? Jun 18 $1,180 −$1 -0%
Will Gold (GC) hit (HIGH) $9,000 by end of June? Jun 18 $1,185 −$1 -0%
Will Elon Musk win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Apr 11 $147 $0 -0%
Will Ségolène Royal win the 2027 French presidential election? Apr 11 $23 $0 -0%
Will Amazon be the largest company in the world by market cap on June Apr 11 $55 $0 -0%
Will the Tampa Bay Rays win the 2026 World Series? Apr 07 $124 $0 -0%
Bank of Japan decreases interest rates after the April 2026 meeting? Apr 07 $23 $0 -0%
Will Won Hee-ryong win the 2026 Gyeonggi Province Gubernatorial Electi Apr 07 $28 $0 -0%
Will Franco Colapinto be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Apr 02 $139 $0 -0%
MegaETH market cap (FDV) >$6B one day after launch? Apr 02 $20 $0 -0%
Will China invade Taiwan by end of 2026? Apr 02 $51 $0 -0%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Mathilde Panot win the 2027 French presidential election? SELL No 99¢ $1,255 1h
Will Dinorah Figuera be the leader of Venezuela end of 2026? SELL No 100¢ $65 1h
Will Dinorah Figuera be the leader of Venezuela end of 2026? BUY No 100¢ $26 1h
Will Mathilde Panot win the 2027 French presidential election? BUY No 99¢ $1,240 1h
Will Dinorah Figuera be the leader of Venezuela end of 2026? BUY No 100¢ $23 2h
Will Yair Golan be the next Prime Minister of Israel? SELL No 100¢ $1,179 2h
Will Dinorah Figuera be the leader of Venezuela end of 2026? BUY No 100¢ $16 2h
Will Yair Golan be the next Prime Minister of Israel? BUY No 100¢ $1,159 2h
Will Mathilde Panot win the 2027 French presidential election? BUY No 99¢ $17 2h
Will Gold (GC) hit (HIGH) $9,000 by end of June? SELL No 100¢ $856 2h
Will Yair Golan be the next Prime Minister of Israel? BUY No 100¢ $21 2h
Will Gold (GC) hit (HIGH) $9,000 by end of June? SELL No 100¢ $328 3h
Will Gold (GC) hit (HIGH) $9,000 by end of June? BUY No 100¢ $1,185 3h
Will Elon Musk win the 2028 US Presidential Election? SELL No 99¢ $147 67d
Will Elon Musk win the 2028 US Presidential Election? BUY No 99¢ $147 67d
Will Ségolène Royal win the 2027 French presidential election? SELL No 99¢ $12 67d
Will Amazon be the largest company in the world by market cap on June SELL No 100¢ $55 67d
Will Ségolène Royal win the 2027 French presidential election? SELL No 99¢ $11 67d
Will Amazon be the largest company in the world by market cap on June BUY No 100¢ $40 67d
Will Amazon be the largest company in the world by market cap on June BUY No 100¢ $15 67d
Will Ségolène Royal win the 2027 French presidential election? BUY No 99¢ $23 67d
Will the Tampa Bay Rays win the 2026 World Series? SELL No 99¢ $124 72d
Bank of Japan decreases interest rates after the April 2026 meeting? SELL No 100¢ $23 72d
Will the Tampa Bay Rays win the 2026 World Series? BUY No 99¢ $81 72d
Will Won Hee-ryong win the 2026 Gyeonggi Province Gubernatorial Electi SELL No 100¢ $12 72d
Will Won Hee-ryong win the 2026 Gyeonggi Province Gubernatorial Electi SELL No 100¢ $16 72d
Will the Tampa Bay Rays win the 2026 World Series? BUY No 99¢ $14 72d
Will Won Hee-ryong win the 2026 Gyeonggi Province Gubernatorial Electi BUY No 100¢ $28 72d
Will the Tampa Bay Rays win the 2026 World Series? BUY No 99¢ $29 72d
Bank of Japan decreases interest rates after the April 2026 meeting? BUY No 100¢ $23 72d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 39 history records