Wallet analysis

2026-06-22T16:52:28+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

2.5
score
FE 0xfe89…e3c0 sports 477 markets active 1h ago coverage 131d
TRAPdo not copy Fading edge
✗ negative after realistic slippage
Total PnL +$1,541 (+4%) realized +$1,601 · open −$60
Gross ROI / mkt +0% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -13% what you keep after slip
Net edge-13%after slip
Net WR41%break-even
Win rate42%191W / 261L
Whale WR93%big bets
Drawdown61%max
Avg bet$76per market
Trades / day6.7pace
Fees−$299est.
Kalshi-fit61%portable
Net worth$432now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$238
7 days−$497
14 days−$691
30 days−$1,525
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 70% +$1,756
other 24% −$358
crypto 5% −$97
world 1% −$56
politics 0% −$100
culture 0% +$4
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +41%
net ROI/market (all)-9.3%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 28 -16.4% -24.3% 36% 36% -39.5%
≤30d 120 -12.6% -20.9% 38% 38% -23.9%
≤90d 260 -5.3% -14.3% 44% 42% -6.1%
all 452 +0.2% -9.3% 42% 41% -6.5%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover6.7 tr/day
realistic slip~7%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -9.3% 41% -6.5%
10% -18.0% 38% -15.4%
15% -25.9% 34% -23.6%
20% -33.2% 30% -31.1%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 4% · top 2 7% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +4% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
4% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +0% · $-wt +3% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 93% (≥$500) strong on big bets
Persistence
early +7% → late -7% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
1.7 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$57 vs −$37 · ×1.54 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×1.12 profit barely above losses
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

131d coverage
Net worth$432
Realized+$1,601
Unrealized−$60
Win rate (resolved)42%
Wins / losses191 / 261
Whale WR (big bets)93%
Est. fees paid−$299
Open positions25
Markets (closed)452 / 477
History coverage131d
Avg bet$76
Trades / day6.7
Drawdown61%
Kalshi-fit61%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 25 History 452 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
France vs. Iraq: O/U 2.5 Over 74¢ 74¢ $100 $99 −$1 (-1%)
Norway vs. Senegal: O/U 2.5 Over 51¢ 50¢ $100 $99 −$1 (-1%)
Argentina vs. Austria: O/U 2.5 Over 49¢ 50¢ $50 $51 +$1 (+1%)
Jordan vs. Algeria: O/U 2.5 Under 51¢ 50¢ $30 $30 −$0 (-1%)
France vs. Iraq: France O/U 2.5 Over 67¢ 66¢ $30 $29 −$1 (-2%)
Will Harry Kane be the top goalscorer at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 13¢ 18¢ $20 $27 +$7 (+35%)
Will Norway win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes $30 $26 −$4 (-13%)
Will Michael Olise be the top goalscorer at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes $30 $12 −$18 (-60%)
Will Japan win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes $10 $10 −$0 (-3%)
Will Belgium win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes $15 $7 −$8 (-54%)
Will Lamine Yamal be the top goalscorer at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes $10 $6 −$4 (-42%)
Will Morocco win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes $5 $5 +$0 (+7%)
Will Ivory Coast win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes $5 $4 −$0 (-10%)
Will Senegal win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes $5 $4 −$1 (-21%)
Will Colombia win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes $5 $4 −$1 (-22%)
Will Sweden win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes $5 $3 −$2 (-38%)
Will South Korea win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes $5 $3 −$2 (-38%)
Will Croatia win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes $5 $3 −$2 (-45%)
Will Bradley Barcola be the top goalscorer at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes $2 $3 +$1 (+33%)
Will Ousmane Dembele be the top goalscorer at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes $10 $2 −$7 (-75%)
Will Algeria win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes $5 $1 −$4 (-75%)
Will Scott McTominay be the top goalscorer at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes $2 $1 −$1 (-50%)
Will Uruguay win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes $7 $1 −$6 (-86%)
Will Rafael Leao be the top goalscorer at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes $3 $1 −$2 (-70%)
Will Bruno Fernandes be the top goalscorer at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes $3 $1 −$2 (-75%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
France vs. Iraq: O/U 3.5 Jun 22 $30 −$2 -5%
Will Uruguay vs. Cabo Verde end in a draw? Jun 22 $15 +$50 +325%
New Zealand vs. Egypt: O/U 1.5 Jun 22 $151 +$54 +36%
Belgium vs. IR Iran: O/U 1.5 Jun 22 $201 −$201 -100%
Germany vs. Côte d'Ivoire: O/U 3.5 Jun 21 $51 −$51 -100%
Will Netherlands vs. Sweden end in a draw? Jun 21 $61 −$61 -100%
Exact Score: Germany 3 - 2 Côte d'Ivoire? Jun 21 $1 −$1 -100%
Will Spain win on 2026-06-21? Jun 21 $5 −$5 -100%
Amad Diallo: 1+ goals Jun 21 $10 −$10 -100%
Spain vs. Saudi Arabia: Both Teams to Score Jun 21 $31 −$31 -100%
Crysencio Summerville: 1+ shots Jun 20 $20 +$20 +97%
Will Morocco win on 2026-06-19? Jun 20 $20 −$20 -100%
Will Haiti advance to the knockout stages at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 20 $10 −$10 -100%
United States vs. Australia: Both Teams to Score Jun 20 $31 −$31 -100%
Belgium vs. Egypt: O/U 2.5 Jun 20 $51 −$51 -100%
United States vs. Australia: O/U 2.5 Jun 20 $51 −$51 -100%
Scotland vs. Morocco: O/U 1.5 Jun 20 $151 −$151 -100%
Vinícius Júnior: 1+ goals Jun 20 $51 +$45 +90%
United States vs. Australia: O/U 8.5 Total Corners Jun 19 $51 +$42 +83%
Will Switzerland win on 2026-06-18? Jun 18 $71 −$17 -25%
Argentina vs. Algeria: Argentina O/U 1.5 Jun 17 $51 +$34 +67%
Iraq vs. Norway: O/U 2.5 Jun 17 $51 +$33 +65%
France vs. Senegal: Both Teams to Score Jun 16 $51 +$47 +93%
IR Iran vs. New Zealand: IR Iran O/U 1.5 Jun 16 $30 +$36 +119%
Will Uruguay win on 2026-06-15? Jun 16 $31 +$60 +197%
Cabo Verde to score first vs. Spain? Jun 15 $10 −$10 -100%
Dailon Livramento: 1+ goals Jun 15 $10 −$10 -100%
Spain vs. Cabo Verde: Both Teams to Score Jun 15 $205 −$205 -100%
Will Netherlands vs. Japan end in a draw? Jun 15 $51 +$121 +238%
Netherlands vs. Japan: Both Teams to Score Jun 14 $61 +$48 +79%
Kai Havertz: 1+ goals Jun 14 $51 +$36 +70%
Spread: Germany (-4.5) Jun 14 $31 +$60 +197%
Australia vs. Türkiye: O/U 1.5 Jun 14 $30 +$22 +73%
Bruno Guimarães: 1+ goals Jun 14 $10 −$10 -100%
ODI Series India vs Afghanistan: India vs Afghanistan Jun 14 $10 −$10 -100%
Exact Score: Brazil 2 - 1 Morocco? Jun 14 $10 −$10 -100%
ICC T20 World Cup, Women: Australia vs South Africa Jun 14 $41 −$41 -100%
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-13? Jun 14 $406 −$406 -100%
Will Morocco win on 2026-06-13? Jun 14 $101 +$68 +67%
Brazil vs. Morocco: O/U 7.5 Total Corners Jun 14 $51 +$28 +55%
Qatar vs. Switzerland: O/U 1.5 Jun 13 $201 +$55 +27%
Exact Score: Canada 1 - 0 Bosnia-Herzegovina? Jun 13 $10 −$10 -100%
Weston McKennie: 1+ goals Jun 13 $10 −$10 -100%
Will Bosnia and Herzegovina win on 2026-06-12? Jun 13 $102 −$102 -100%
Mexico vs. South Africa: O/U 2.5 Jun 13 $102 −$102 -100%
ODI Series Bangladesh vs Australia: Bangladesh vs Australia Jun 13 $66 −$66 -100%
Mexico vs. South Africa: O/U 9.5 Total Corners Jun 13 $15 −$15 -100%
Will Mexico vs. South Africa end in a draw? Jun 13 $3 −$3 -100%
United States vs. Paraguay: O/U 1.5 Jun 13 $101 +$48 +48%
Will Canada vs. Bosnia and Herzegovina end in a draw? Jun 12 $15 +$32 +206%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
France vs. Iraq: France O/U 2.5 BUY Over 67¢ $30 1h
France vs. Iraq: O/U 2.5 BUY Over 74¢ $101 1h
France vs. Iraq: O/U 3.5 SELL Under 47¢ $29 1h
France vs. Iraq: O/U 3.5 BUY Under 48¢ $30 1h
Jordan vs. Algeria: O/U 2.5 BUY Under 51¢ $30 1h
Argentina vs. Austria: O/U 2.5 BUY Over 49¢ $51 1h
Norway vs. Senegal: O/U 2.5 BUY Over 51¢ $101 1h
New Zealand vs. Egypt: O/U 1.5 BUY Over 73¢ $151 27h
Spain vs. Saudi Arabia: Both Teams to Score BUY Yes 35¢ $31 27h
Belgium vs. IR Iran: O/U 1.5 BUY Over 78¢ $201 27h
Will Spain win on 2026-06-21? BUY No 11¢ $5 27h
Will Uruguay vs. Cabo Verde end in a draw? BUY Yes 23¢ $15 27h
Exact Score: Germany 3 - 2 Côte d'Ivoire? BUY Yes $1 44h
Amad Diallo: 1+ goals BUY Yes 14¢ $10 44h
Crysencio Summerville: 1+ shots BUY Yes 50¢ $20 2d
Will Netherlands vs. Sweden end in a draw? BUY Yes 24¢ $31 2d
Will Netherlands vs. Sweden end in a draw? BUY Yes 24¢ $31 2d
Germany vs. Côte d'Ivoire: O/U 3.5 BUY Over 39¢ $51 2d
Vinícius Júnior: 1+ goals BUY Yes 52¢ $51 2d
Scotland vs. Morocco: O/U 1.5 BUY Over 69¢ $151 2d
Will Morocco win on 2026-06-19? BUY No 41¢ $20 2d
United States vs. Australia: Both Teams to Score BUY Yes 35¢ $31 2d
United States vs. Australia: O/U 2.5 BUY Over 51¢ $51 3d
United States vs. Australia: O/U 8.5 Total Corners BUY Over 54¢ $51 3d
Will Switzerland win on 2026-06-18? SELL Yes 39¢ $54 3d
Will Switzerland win on 2026-06-18? BUY Yes 50¢ $71 3d
Argentina vs. Algeria: Argentina O/U 1.5 BUY Over 59¢ $51 6d
Iraq vs. Norway: O/U 2.5 BUY Over 60¢ $51 6d
France vs. Senegal: Both Teams to Score BUY Yes 51¢ $51 6d
Belgium vs. Egypt: O/U 2.5 BUY Over 52¢ $51 6d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $431.77 · official $431.84 (match) · 1343 history records