Wallet analysis

2026-06-17T16:38:30+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
FE 0xfe84…038c other 31 markets active 6d ago coverage 272d
TRAPdo not copy Fading edge
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ profit hinges on one bet (luck, not edge)✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage
Total PnL −$17 (-2%) realized −$17 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -1% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -10% what you keep after slip
Net edge-10%after slip
Net WR6%break-even
Win rate32%10W / 21L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$33per market
Trades / day0.4pace
Kalshi-fit39%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days$0
7 days+$1
14 days−$1
30 days−$1
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
world 51% −$2
other 47% −$14
sports 2% $0
politics 0% −$1
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +6%
net ROI/market (all)-10.3%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 1 +3.2% -6.7% 100% 0% -6.7%
≤30d 12 +0.8% -8.8% 50% 0% -9.7%
≤90d 13 -0.4% -9.9% 46% 0% -9.8%
all 31 -0.9% -10.3% 32% 6% -11.0%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.4 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -10.3% 6% -11.0%
10% -18.9% 3% -19.5%
15% -26.8% 3% -27.3%
20% -33.9% 0% -34.4%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 58% · top 2 74% profit hinges on 1 bet — luck, not edge
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -0% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
80% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -1% · $-wt -2% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +4% → late -6% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
2.0 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$1 vs −$5 · ×0.18 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.36 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

272d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized−$17
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)32%
Wins / losses10 / 21
Open positions0
Markets (closed)31 / 31
History coverage272d
Avg bet$33
Trades / day0.4
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit39%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 31 Trades
no open positions
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 30? Jun 11 $21 +$1 +3%
US obtains Iranian enriched uranium by June 30? Jun 10 $4 $0 +8%
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? Jun 09 $2 $0 +0%
Will Trump agree to unfreeze Iranian assets by June 30? Jun 09 $55 $0 +0%
Will United Russia (ER) gain the most seats in the next Russian parlia Jun 08 $102 $0 +0%
Will Alberta join the US? Jun 08 $38 $0 +0%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by July 31, 2026? Jun 07 $60 $0 +0%
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by December 31, 2026? Jun 07 $148 −$3 -2%
US strike on Cuba by December 31? Jun 06 $111 +$1 +1%
Will the Iranian regime fall by June 30? Jun 06 $54 $0 -0%
Israel and Indonesia normalize relations by June 30, 2026? Jun 04 $57 $0 +0%
Putin out as President of Russia by June 30? Jun 03 $23 $0 +0%
Will Marco Rubio win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Mar 31 $5 −$1 -15%
Will Brighton win on 2025-12-03? Dec 12 $9 −$3 -33%
Will Getafe win on 2025-11-28? Dec 12 $36 −$19 -54%
Will Leeds United win on 2025-12-03? Nov 26 $11 $0 +0%
Will Wolves win on 2025-12-03? Nov 26 $6 $0 +0%
Will Burnley FC win on 2025-12-03? Nov 25 $12 $0 +0%
Will Chelsea win on 2025-11-30? Nov 25 $8 $0 +0%
Will Chelsea win the 2025–26 Champions League? Nov 25 $18 $0 +0%
Will Newcastle win on 2025-12-02? Nov 25 $8 $0 +0%
Will Crystal Palace win on 2025-11-30? Nov 25 $20 $0 +0%
Will Atletico Madrid win on 2025-11-29? Nov 24 $26 $0 +0%
Will Fulham win on 2025-12-02? Nov 24 $9 $0 +0%
Will MetaMask launch a token by June 30? Nov 23 $28 $0 +0%
Will Barcelona win on 2025-11-22? Nov 23 $3 +$2 +45%
Will Burnley FC win on 2025-11-22? Nov 23 $31 +$6 +18%
Will Valencia win on 2025-11-21? Nov 19 $32 $0 +0%
Will France win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Nov 19 $32 $0 +0%
Will Barcelona win on 2025-11-29? Nov 19 $32 $0 +0%
Will Putin meet with Zelenskyy by September 30? Nov 19 $31 +$1 +2%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 30? SELL No 65¢ $22 6d
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 30? BUY No 63¢ $21 6d
US obtains Iranian enriched uranium by June 30? SELL Yes 3¢ $4 7d
US obtains Iranian enriched uranium by June 30? BUY Yes 2¢ $4 7d
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? SELL Yes 6¢ $2 8d
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? BUY Yes 6¢ $2 8d
Will Trump agree to unfreeze Iranian assets by June 30? SELL No 79¢ $35 8d
Will Trump agree to unfreeze Iranian assets by June 30? SELL No 79¢ $20 8d
Will Trump agree to unfreeze Iranian assets by June 30? BUY No 79¢ $55 8d
Will United Russia (ER) gain the most seats in the next Russian parlia SELL Yes 55¢ $45 8d
Will United Russia (ER) gain the most seats in the next Russian parlia BUY Yes 55¢ $45 8d
Will Alberta join the US? SELL No 95¢ $30 9d
Will Alberta join the US? SELL No 95¢ $9 9d
Will Alberta join the US? BUY No 95¢ $38 9d
US x Iran permanent peace deal by July 31, 2026? SELL No 70¢ $60 10d
US x Iran permanent peace deal by July 31, 2026? BUY No 70¢ $60 10d
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by December 31, 2026? SELL Yes 47¢ $9 10d
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by December 31, 2026? SELL Yes 47¢ $29 10d
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by December 31, 2026? BUY Yes 47¢ $38 10d
US strike on Cuba by December 31? SELL No 61¢ $55 10d
US strike on Cuba by December 31? BUY No 60¢ $34 10d
US strike on Cuba by December 31? BUY No 60¢ $20 10d
Will the Iranian regime fall by June 30? SELL No 98¢ $54 11d
Will the Iranian regime fall by June 30? BUY No 98¢ $9 11d
Will the Iranian regime fall by June 30? BUY No 98¢ $45 11d
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by December 31, 2026? SELL No 50¢ $12 11d
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by December 31, 2026? SELL No 50¢ $42 11d
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by December 31, 2026? BUY No 50¢ $54 11d
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by December 31, 2026? SELL Yes 49¢ $49 12d
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by December 31, 2026? SELL Yes 49¢ $4 12d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 120 history records