Wallet analysis

2026-06-18T04:57:38+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
FE 0xfe82…d27b other 244 markets active 0h ago coverage 133d
TRAPdo not copy ⚠ High turnover
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ profit hinges on one bet (luck, not edge)✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage! high turnover
Total PnL −$79 (-0%) realized −$79 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -0% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -17% what you keep after slip
Net edge-17%after slip
Net WR0%break-even
Win rate7%16W / 228L
Whale WR0%big bets
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$237per market
Trades / day10.2pace
Fees−$11est.
Kalshi-fit60%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$6
7 days−$22
14 days−$29
30 days−$42
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
other 44% −$37
sports 26% −$25
politics 8% −$9
culture 6% −$7
economics 5% −$7
crypto 5% −$5
world 4% −$4
tech 1% +$2
finance 0% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +0%
net ROI/market (all)-9.7%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 35 -0.2% -9.7% 0% 0% -9.7%
≤30d 74 -0.2% -9.7% 1% 0% -9.7%
≤90d 180 -0.2% -9.7% 4% 0% -9.7%
all 244 -0.2% -9.7% 7% 0% -9.7%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover10.2 tr/day
realistic slip~9%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -9.7% 0% -9.7%
10% -18.3% 0% -18.3%
15% -26.2% 0% -26.2%
20% -33.4% 0% -33.4%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 64% · top 2 73% profit hinges on 1 bet — luck, not edge
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -0% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
100% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -0% · $-wt -0% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 0% (≥$500) big bets weaker
Persistence
early -0% → late -0% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
2.6 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$0 vs −$0 · ×0.76 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.05 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

133d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized−$79
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)7%
Wins / losses16 / 228
Whale WR (big bets)0%
Est. fees paid−$11
Open positions0
Markets (closed)244 / 244
History coverage133d
Avg bet$237
Trades / day10.2
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit60%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 244 Trades
no open positions
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will the Detroit Tigers win the 2026 World Series? Jun 18 $151 $0 -0%
Will 12 or more Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? Jun 17 $623 $0 -0%
Will New York Red Bulls win the 2026 MLS Cup? Jun 17 $188 $0 -0%
Will Trump acquire Greenland before 2027? Jun 17 $291 $0 -0%
Will Ecuador win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 17 $845 −$1 -0%
Will Greta Thunberg win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026? Jun 17 $222 −$1 -0%
Will the Jacksonville Jaguars win the 2027 NFL league championship? Jun 16 $158 $0 -0%
Will Ronaldo Caiado win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? Jun 16 $312 −$1 -0%
Will Belgium win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 16 $811 −$1 -0%
Will Mexico win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 16 $405 −$1 -0%
Will Xi Jinping win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026? Jun 16 $418 −$1 -0%
Will the Green Bay Packers win the 2027 NFL league championship? Jun 16 $24 $0 -0%
Will the Cincinnati Reds win the 2026 World Series? Jun 15 $368 $0 -0%
Will Mohammed bin Salman win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026? Jun 15 $288 $0 -0%
Will China invade Taiwan by end of 2026? Jun 15 $618 −$1 -0%
Will Morocco win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 14 $453 −$1 -0%
Will Norway win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 14 $401 −$1 -0%
Will the Miami Dolphins win the 2027 NFL league championship? Jun 14 $328 $0 -0%
Will Eduardo Bolsonaro win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? Jun 14 $655 −$1 -0%
Will Switzerland win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 14 $502 −$1 -0%
Will 4 Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? Jun 13 $271 −$1 -0%
Will the Houston Astros win the 2026 World Series? Jun 13 $452 −$1 -0%
Will Charlotte FC win the 2026 MLS Cup? Jun 13 $428 −$1 -0%
Will the Tampa Bay Buccaneers win the 2027 NFL league championship? Jun 13 $441 −$1 -0%
Will Recep Tayyip Erdoğan win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026? Jun 13 $534 −$1 -0%
Will Egypt win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 13 $309 $0 -0%
Will Croatia win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 13 $449 −$1 -0%
Will Japan win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 12 $284 $0 -0%
Will the New York Giants win the 2027 NFL league championship? Jun 12 $332 −$1 -0%
Will Edmundo González be the leader of Venezuela end of 2026? Jun 12 $277 −$1 -0%
Will Minnesota United FC win the 2026 MLS Cup? Jun 12 $221 $0 -0%
Will the Chicago Bears win the 2027 NFL league championship? Jun 11 $354 $0 -0%
Will Elon Musk win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026? Jun 11 $515 −$1 -0%
Will Ghana win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 11 $787 −$1 -0%
Will the Dallas Cowboys win the 2027 NFL league championship? Jun 11 $251 $0 -0%
Will Julian Assange win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026? Jun 11 $386 −$1 -0%
Will the Indianapolis Colts win the 2027 NFL league championship? Jun 10 $340 −$1 -0%
Will the Kansas City Royals win the 2026 World Series? Jun 10 $204 $0 -0%
Will there be no head of state of Venezuela end of 2026? Jun 09 $399 $0 -0%
Will Katie Porter win the California Governor Election in 2026? Jun 09 $163 $0 +0%
Will Lando Norris be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Jun 09 $64 $0 -0%
Will the Carolina Panthers win the 2027 NFL league championship? Jun 08 $209 $0 -0%
Will 8 Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? Jun 07 $704 −$1 -0%
Will the Pittsburgh Steelers win the 2027 NFL league championship? Jun 06 $152 $0 -0%
Will 5 Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? Jun 06 $280 −$1 -0%
Will the Texas Rangers win the 2026 World Series? Jun 06 $132 $0 -0%
Will Real Salt Lake win the 2026 MLS Cup? Jun 06 $341 −$1 -0%
Will the Washington Commanders win the 2027 NFL league championship? Jun 05 $497 −$1 -0%
Will Camilo Santana win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? Jun 05 $302 −$1 -0%
Will the San Diego Padres win the 2026 World Series? Jun 04 $418 $0 -0%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will the Detroit Tigers win the 2026 World Series? SELL No 99¢ $58 23m
Will the Detroit Tigers win the 2026 World Series? BUY No 99¢ $58 1h
Will 12 or more Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? SELL No 100¢ $58 7h
Will 12 or more Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? BUY No 100¢ $58 9h
Will New York Red Bulls win the 2026 MLS Cup? SELL No 98¢ $58 9h
Will New York Red Bulls win the 2026 MLS Cup? BUY No 99¢ $58 11h
Will Trump acquire Greenland before 2027? SELL No 94¢ $58 12h
Will Trump acquire Greenland before 2027? BUY No 94¢ $58 14h
Will Ecuador win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL No 100¢ $58 15h
Will Ecuador win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 100¢ $58 16h
Will Ecuador win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL No 100¢ $58 18h
Will Ecuador win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 100¢ $59 20h
Will Greta Thunberg win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026? SELL No 99¢ $59 25h
Will Greta Thunberg win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026? BUY No 99¢ $59 28h
Will the Jacksonville Jaguars win the 2027 NFL league championship? SELL No 97¢ $55 32h
Will the Jacksonville Jaguars win the 2027 NFL league championship? SELL No 98¢ $4 34h
Will the Jacksonville Jaguars win the 2027 NFL league championship? BUY No 98¢ $59 36h
Will Ronaldo Caiado win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? SELL No 98¢ $59 37h
Will Ronaldo Caiado win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? BUY No 98¢ $59 39h
Will Belgium win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL No 98¢ $59 40h
Will Belgium win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 98¢ $59 41h
Will Mexico win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL No 99¢ $59 44h
Will Mexico win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 99¢ $59 46h
Will Xi Jinping win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026? SELL No 99¢ $59 47h
Will Xi Jinping win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026? BUY No 99¢ $60 2d
Will the Green Bay Packers win the 2027 NFL league championship? SELL No 97¢ $24 2d
Will the Green Bay Packers win the 2027 NFL league championship? BUY No 97¢ $24 2d
Will 12 or more Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? SELL No 100¢ $60 2d
Will 12 or more Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? BUY No 100¢ $60 2d
Will the Cincinnati Reds win the 2026 World Series? SELL No 99¢ $60 2d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 1429 history records