Wallet analysis

2026-06-26T21:30:27+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

2.0
score
FE 0xfe82…d6a5 other 28 markets active 1d ago coverage 744d
TRAPdo not copy Fresh edge⚠ Small sample
✗ negative after realistic slippage! limited sample (<25 closed)
Total PnL −$302 (-48%) realized −$293 · open −$9
Gross ROI / mkt -22% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -30% what you keep after slip
Net edge-30%after slip
Net WR37%break-even
Win rate42%8W / 11L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$23per market
Trades / day0.0pace
Fees−$1est.
Kalshi-fit50%portable
Net worth$46now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$5
7 days+$19
14 days+$53
30 days+$58
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
politics 42% −$264
other 34% −$86
sports 13% +$42
world 11% +$25
crypto 1% +$3
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +37%
net ROI/market (all)-29.6%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 2 +9.3% -1.1% 50% 50% +58.8%
≤30d 5 +47.6% +33.6% 80% 60% +38.2%
≤90d 5 +47.6% +33.6% 80% 60% +38.2%
all 19 -22.2% -29.6% 42% 37% -55.6%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.0 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -29.6% 37% -55.6%
10% -36.3% 32% -59.9%
15% -42.5% 32% -63.8%
20% -48.1% 26% -67.3%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 22% · top 2 44% thin sample
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +53% too few recent
Fragile wins
12% wins margin < slip thin sample
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -22% · $-wt -51% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -76% → late +27% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.0 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$14 vs −$35 · ×0.4 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.29 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

744d coverage
Net worth$46
Realized−$293
Unrealized−$9
Win rate (resolved)42%
Wins / losses8 / 11
Est. fees paid−$1
Open positions5
Markets (closed)19 / 28
History coverage744d
Avg bet$23
Trades / day0.0
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit50%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 5 History 19 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Germany win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes $30 $26 −$4 (-12%)
Will USA win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes $10 $12 +$2 (+24%)
Will Mexico win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes $5 $4 −$1 (-17%)
Will Ivory Coast win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes $5 $3 −$2 (-42%)
Will South Korea win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes $5 $1 −$4 (-88%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 6 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Türkiye to score first vs. United States? Jun 25 $5 −$5 -98%
Will Switzerland win on 2026-06-24? Jun 24 $20 +$24 +119%
Will France win on 2026-06-16? Jun 16 $20 +$10 +48%
Spread: Canada (-1.5) AND Will United States win on 2026-06-12? Jun 13 $15 +$25 +162%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by April 30, 2026? Jun 12 $50 +$5 +10%
AC Milan vs. Genoa CFC: Both Teams to Score Jan 08 $15 +$22 +150%
Will Como 1907 win on 2026-01-10? Jan 08 $10 −$10 -100%
US x Venezuela military engagement by December 31? Jan 08 $5 +$1 +16%
Will Trump say "Australia" while addressing the nation on December 17? Dec 18 $5 −$5 -100%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $86,000 on December 17? Dec 17 $5 +$3 +61%
Will lighter perform an airdrop by December 31? Dec 17 $15 −$15 -100%
Maduro out by January 31, 2026? Dec 17 $15 −$15 -100%
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire in 2025? Dec 17 $1 −$1 -100%
Will Kamala Harris win the 2024 US Presidential Election? Jan 13 $255 −$255 -100%
Biden drops out of presidential race? Jul 22 $4 −$4 -100%
Will Germany win the 2024 Euros? Jul 08 $47 −$47 -100%
Will Scotland win? Jun 25 $15 −$15 -100%
Will Poland win? Jun 22 $10 −$10 -100%
Will Ukraine win? Jun 22 $19 +$21 +113%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Türkiye to score first vs. United States? BUY Yes 36¢ $5 30h
Ecuador vs. Germany: Both Teams to Score AND Curaçao vs. Côte d'Ivoire BUY $10 30h
Germany vs. Côte d'Ivoire: O/U 2.5 AND Spread: Netherlands (-1.5) BUY 43¢ $10 6d
Spread: Brazil (-1.5) AND Will Türkiye win on 2026-06-19? AND Will Mor BUY 21¢ $15 6d
Will South Korea win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes $5 9d
Will Ivory Coast win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes $5 9d
Will USA win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes $10 9d
Will Mexico win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes $5 9d
Will France win on 2026-06-16? BUY Yes 67¢ $20 11d
Will Switzerland win on 2026-06-24? BUY Yes 45¢ $20 11d
Spread: Belgium (-1.5) AND Spain vs. Cabo Verde: O/U 3.5 BUY 33¢ $10 11d
Will Germany win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes $31 13d
Spread: Canada (-1.5) AND Will United States win on 2026-06-12? BUY 38¢ $15 14d
US x Iran permanent peace deal by April 30, 2026? BUY No 91¢ $50 62d
Will Como 1907 win on 2026-01-10? BUY Yes 51¢ $10 169d
AC Milan vs. Genoa CFC: Both Teams to Score BUY Yes 40¢ $15 169d
Will Trump say "Australia" while addressing the nation on December 17? BUY Yes 38¢ $5 190d
Will lighter perform an airdrop by December 31? BUY No 34¢ $15 191d
Maduro out by January 31, 2026? BUY No 82¢ $15 191d
US x Venezuela military engagement by December 31? BUY No 86¢ $5 191d
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire in 2025? BUY Yes $1 191d
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $86,000 on December 17? BUY Yes 62¢ $5 191d
Will Kamala Harris win the 2024 US Presidential Election? BUY Yes 40¢ $180 598d
Will Kamala Harris win the 2024 US Presidential Election? BUY Yes 39¢ $75 598d
Will Scotland win? BUY Yes 37¢ $15 733d
Will Poland win? BUY Yes 24¢ $10 735d
Will Germany win the 2024 Euros? BUY Yes 20¢ $47 735d
Will Ukraine win? BUY Yes 47¢ $19 735d
Biden drops out of presidential race? BUY No 77¢ $4 745d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $46.35 · official $46.35 (match) · 56 history records