trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?
| timeframe | markets | gross ROI | NET ROI | gross WR | NET WR | net PnL (wtd) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| ≤7d | 2 | +9.3% | -1.1% | 50% | 50% | +58.8% |
| ≤30d | 5 | +47.6% | +33.6% | 80% | 60% | +38.2% |
| ≤90d | 5 | +47.6% | +33.6% | 80% | 60% | +38.2% |
| all | 19 | -22.2% | -29.6% | 42% | 37% | -55.6% |
| copier slippage | NET ROI | NET WR | net PnL (wtd) |
|---|---|---|---|
| 5% ideal ← realistic here | -29.6% | 37% | -55.6% |
| 10% | -36.3% | 32% | -59.9% |
| 15% | -42.5% | 32% | -63.8% |
| 20% | -48.1% | 26% | -67.3% |
| Market | outcome | entry | now | invested | value | unrealized PnL |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Will Germany win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? | Yes | 5¢ | 5¢ | $30 | $26 | −$4 (-12%) |
| Will USA win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? | Yes | 2¢ | 3¢ | $10 | $12 | +$2 (+24%) |
| Will Mexico win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? | Yes | 1¢ | 1¢ | $5 | $4 | −$1 (-17%) |
| Will Ivory Coast win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? | Yes | 1¢ | 0¢ | $5 | $3 | −$2 (-42%) |
| Will South Korea win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? | Yes | 0¢ | 0¢ | $5 | $1 | −$4 (-88%) |
| Market | when | invested | PnL | ROI |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Türkiye to score first vs. United States? | Jun 25 | $5 | −$5 | -98% |
| Will Switzerland win on 2026-06-24? | Jun 24 | $20 | +$24 | +119% |
| Will France win on 2026-06-16? | Jun 16 | $20 | +$10 | +48% |
| Spread: Canada (-1.5) AND Will United States win on 2026-06-12? | Jun 13 | $15 | +$25 | +162% |
| US x Iran permanent peace deal by April 30, 2026? | Jun 12 | $50 | +$5 | +10% |
| AC Milan vs. Genoa CFC: Both Teams to Score | Jan 08 | $15 | +$22 | +150% |
| Will Como 1907 win on 2026-01-10? | Jan 08 | $10 | −$10 | -100% |
| US x Venezuela military engagement by December 31? | Jan 08 | $5 | +$1 | +16% |
| Will Trump say "Australia" while addressing the nation on December 17? | Dec 18 | $5 | −$5 | -100% |
| Will the price of Bitcoin be above $86,000 on December 17? | Dec 17 | $5 | +$3 | +61% |
| Will lighter perform an airdrop by December 31? | Dec 17 | $15 | −$15 | -100% |
| Maduro out by January 31, 2026? | Dec 17 | $15 | −$15 | -100% |
| Russia x Ukraine ceasefire in 2025? | Dec 17 | $1 | −$1 | -100% |
| Will Kamala Harris win the 2024 US Presidential Election? | Jan 13 | $255 | −$255 | -100% |
| Biden drops out of presidential race? | Jul 22 | $4 | −$4 | -100% |
| Will Germany win the 2024 Euros? | Jul 08 | $47 | −$47 | -100% |
| Will Scotland win? | Jun 25 | $15 | −$15 | -100% |
| Will Poland win? | Jun 22 | $10 | −$10 | -100% |
| Will Ukraine win? | Jun 22 | $19 | +$21 | +113% |