Wallet analysis

2026-06-29T01:13:55+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
FE 0xfe81…4fb6 crypto 90 markets active 1h ago coverage 77d
TRAPdo not copy crypto specialist
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died! concentrated profit (few bets)
Total PnL −$17 (-2%) realized −$17 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -14% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -23% what you keep after slip
Net edge-23%after slip
Net WR12%break-even
Win rate30%27W / 62L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$8per market
Trades / day1.8pace
Fees−$0est.
Kalshi-fit100%portable
Net worth$29now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$2
7 days+$7
14 days+$6
30 days+$6
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 60% −$37
weather 39% +$5
politics 1% −$4
sports 1% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +12%
net ROI/market (all)-22.7%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 8 +3.6% -6.2% 88% 12% -6.3%
≤30d 14 -4.0% -13.2% 71% 7% -7.6%
≤90d 89 -14.5% -22.7% 30% 12% -14.1%
all 89 -14.5% -22.7% 30% 12% -14.1%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover1.8 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -22.7% 12% -14.1%
10% -30.1% 9% -22.3%
15% -36.8% 9% -29.8%
20% -43.0% 9% -36.7%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 37% · top 2 56% concentrated in a few bets
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -5% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
59% wins margin < slip thin win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -15% · $-wt -5% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -4% → late -25% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.2 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$9 vs −$4 · ×1.99 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×0.87 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

77d coverage
Net worth$29
Realized−$17
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)30%
Wins / losses27 / 62
Est. fees paid−$0
Open positions1
Markets (closed)89 / 90
History coverage77d
Avg bet$8
Trades / day1.8
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit100%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 89 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 30°C on June 29? No 98¢ 98¢ $30 $29 −$0 (-1%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 3 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 26°C on June 29? Jun 29 $29 +$1 +5%
Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 29°C on June 29? Jun 28 $29 −$1 -2%
Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 31°C on June 28? Jun 28 $28 +$1 +4%
Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 29°C on June 27? Jun 27 $27 +$1 +2%
Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 29°C on June 26? Jun 26 $24 +$3 +13%
Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 27°C on June 25? Jun 25 $23 +$1 +4%
Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 26°C on June 23? Jun 23 $23 $0 +1%
Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 28°C or higher on June 22? Jun 22 $23 $0 +2%
Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 29°C on June 21? Jun 21 $20 $0 +1%
Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 26°C on June 20? Jun 20 $10 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 27°C on June 20? Jun 20 $10 $0 +1%
Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 23°C or below on June 21? Jun 20 $1 $0 -44%
Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 28°C on June 20? Jun 19 $3 $0 -7%
Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 29°C on June 20? Jun 19 $9 −$1 -17%
Will Trump say "Strait" or "Hormuz" during events with Xi Jinping? May 14 $4 −$4 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 11, 4:50AM-4:55AM ET May 11 $2 −$2 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 3, 9:15AM-9:30AM ET May 03 $2 −$2 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 2, 11:00AM-11:15AM ET May 02 $2 −$2 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 1, 3:10AM-3:15AM ET May 01 $5 $0 -4%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 24, 10:40PM-10:45PM ET Apr 28 $5 −$5 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 24, 10:35PM-10:40PM ET Apr 25 $7 −$7 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 25, 12:20AM-12:25AM ET Apr 25 $5 −$5 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 25, 1:50AM-1:55AM ET Apr 25 $5 −$5 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 24, 10:50PM-10:55PM ET Apr 25 $5 −$5 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 24, 9:00PM-9:05PM ET Apr 25 $5 −$5 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 25, 12:15AM-12:20AM ET Apr 25 $5 −$5 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 24, 11:15PM-11:20PM ET Apr 25 $5 −$5 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 25, 12:25AM-12:30AM ET Apr 25 $5 −$5 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 25, 12:10AM-12:15AM ET Apr 25 $10 −$10 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 25, 12:30AM-12:35AM ET Apr 25 $3 −$3 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 24, 10:55AM-11:00AM ET Apr 24 $20 −$20 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 24, 10:40AM-10:45AM ET Apr 24 $17 +$86 +510%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 21, 11:45AM-11:50AM ET Apr 21 $3 −$3 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 21, 11:50AM-11:55AM ET Apr 21 $3 −$3 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 21, 11:10AM-11:15AM ET Apr 21 $3 −$3 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 21, 8:05AM-8:10AM ET Apr 21 $3 −$3 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 21, 5:50AM-5:55AM ET Apr 21 $4 −$4 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 21, 5:40AM-5:45AM ET Apr 21 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 21, 5:45AM-5:50AM ET Apr 21 $3 −$3 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 20, 10:20PM-10:25PM ET Apr 21 $3 +$16 +570%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 20, 8:30PM-8:35PM ET Apr 21 $4 −$4 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 20, 6:20PM-6:25PM ET Apr 21 $4 −$4 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 20, 8:35PM-8:40PM ET Apr 21 $3 −$3 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 20, 8:15PM-8:20PM ET Apr 21 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 20, 10:45PM-10:50PM ET Apr 21 $3 +$17 +549%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 20, 12:35PM-12:40PM ET Apr 20 $18 +$4 +20%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 20, 6:50AM-6:55AM ET Apr 20 $2 −$2 -91%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 20, 1:35AM-1:40AM ET Apr 20 $2 −$2 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 19, 11:05PM-11:10PM ET Apr 20 $4 −$4 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 19, 11:10PM-11:15PM ET Apr 20 $8 −$8 -100%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 30°C on June 29? BUY No 98¢ $30 1h
Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 26°C on June 29? SELL No 100¢ $30 1h
Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 26°C on June 29? BUY No 95¢ $14 1h
Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 26°C on June 29? BUY No 95¢ $14 1h
Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 29°C on June 29? SELL No 92¢ $28 1h
Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 29°C on June 29? BUY No 94¢ $29 1h
Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 31°C on June 28? SELL No 100¢ $29 17h
Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 31°C on June 28? BUY No 95¢ $28 24h
Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 29°C on June 27? BUY No 98¢ $27 2d
Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 29°C on June 26? BUY No 88¢ $24 3d
Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 27°C on June 25? BUY No 96¢ $23 4d
Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 26°C on June 23? BUY No 99¢ $23 5d
Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 28°C or higher on June 22? BUY No 97¢ $5 7d
Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 28°C or higher on June 22? BUY No 99¢ $18 7d
Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 29°C on June 21? BUY No 99¢ $10 8d
Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 26°C on June 20? SELL No 100¢ $10 8d
Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 29°C on June 21? BUY No 99¢ $10 8d
Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 27°C on June 20? SELL No 100¢ $10 8d
Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 23°C or below on June 21? SELL Yes 2¢ $0 8d
Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 23°C or below on June 21? BUY Yes 1¢ $1 8d
Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 26°C on June 20? BUY No 100¢ $10 9d
Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 28°C on June 20? SELL No 89¢ $3 9d
Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 29°C on June 20? SELL No 74¢ $7 9d
Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 27°C on June 20? BUY No 99¢ $10 9d
Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 28°C on June 20? BUY No 95¢ $3 9d
Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 29°C on June 20? BUY No 87¢ $9 9d
Will Trump say "Strait" or "Hormuz" during events with Xi Jinping? BUY Yes 60¢ $4 46d
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 11, 4:50AM-4:55AM ET BUY Up 19¢ $2 48d
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 3, 9:15AM-9:30AM ET BUY Up 8¢ $2 56d
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 2, 11:00AM-11:15AM ET BUY Down 14¢ $2 57d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $29.40 · official $29.40 (match) · 206 history records