Wallet analysis

2026-06-18T04:30:38+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

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FE 0xfe7c…406c crypto 1382 markets active 1h ago coverage 22d ⚠
BOTnot copyable crypto specialistFading edge⚠ High turnover⚠ Covers last 22d only
✗ bot/MM pace (119 trades/day) — uncopyable✗ negative after realistic slippage
Total PnL +$136 (+1%) realized +$135 · open +$1
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -9% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -30% what you keep after slip
Net edge-30%after slip
Net WR46%break-even
Win rate48%694W / 766L
Drawdown89%max
Avg bet$9per market
Trades / day119.3pace
Fees−$17est.
Kalshi-fit99%portable
Net worth$82now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$2,137
7 days−$1,570
14 days−$1,371
30 days+$280
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 88% +$1,634
sports 6% +$677
other 4% +$66
world 1% +$192
politics 0% −$21
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
uncopyable — bot pace (119 trades/day)
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +46%
net ROI/market (all)-17.9%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 553 -66.1% -69.3% 15% 14% -42.5%
≤30d 1460 -9.3% -17.9% 48% 46% -7.4%
≤90d 1460 -9.3% -17.9% 48% 46% -7.4%
all 1460 -9.3% -17.9% 48% 46% -7.4%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover119.3 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -17.9% 46% -7.4%
10% ← realistic here -25.8% 44% -16.3%
15% -33.0% 40% -24.4%
20% -39.5% 33% -31.8%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 6% · top 2 12% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +2% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
3% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -9% · $-wt +2% edge needs big-bet sizing — not flat-copyable
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +22% → late -40% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
1.8 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$8 vs −$7 · ×1.17 wins ≈ losses
Profit factor
×1.06 profit barely above losses
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

22d coverage
Net worth$82
Realized+$135
Unrealized+$1
Win rate (resolved)48%
Wins / losses694 / 766
Est. fees paid−$17
Open positions3
Markets (closed)1460 / 1382
History coverage22d ⚠
Avg bet$9
Trades / day119.3
Drawdown89%
Kalshi-fit99%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 3 History 1460 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will France win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 16¢ 18¢ $50 $57 +$7 (+15%)
KBO: Kiwoom Heroes vs. Samsung Lions Kiwoom Heroes 38¢ 36¢ $26 $25 −$1 (-4%)
Pittsburgh Pirates vs. Athletics Athletics 3¢ 0¢ $6 $0 −$6 (-98%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 497 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 23, 1:45PM-2:00PM ET Jun 18 $6 −$6 -100%
Solana Up or Down - May 21, 7:05PM-7:10PM ET Jun 18 $9 −$9 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - May 21, 6:25AM-6:30AM ET Jun 18 $0 $0 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 17, 2:55PM-3:00PM ET Jun 18 $3 −$3 -100%
Solana Up or Down - May 18, 7:35PM-7:40PM ET Jun 18 $4 −$4 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - May 22, 12:20AM-12:25AM ET Jun 18 $12 −$12 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 25, 10:45PM-11:00PM ET Jun 18 $2 −$2 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - May 16, 4:20PM-4:25PM ET Jun 18 $3 −$3 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 25, 12:15AM-12:30AM ET Jun 18 $6 −$6 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 23, 11:30PM-11:45PM ET Jun 18 $6 −$6 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - May 18, 2:30PM-2:45PM ET Jun 18 $5 −$5 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 16, 5:50PM-5:55PM ET Jun 18 $4 −$4 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 18, 9:00PM-9:05PM ET Jun 18 $2 −$2 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - May 21, 7:35AM-7:40AM ET Jun 18 $4 −$4 -100%
XRP Up or Down - May 19, 3:45AM-4:00AM ET Jun 18 $4 −$4 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - May 24, 10:30PM-10:45PM ET Jun 18 $2 −$2 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - May 20, 3:00AM-3:15AM ET Jun 18 $6 −$6 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - May 18, 7:35PM-7:40PM ET Jun 18 $6 −$6 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 23, 9:10PM-9:15PM ET Jun 18 $10 −$10 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - May 18, 9:30PM-9:35PM ET Jun 18 $9 −$9 -100%
Solana Up or Down - May 19, 11:45AM-12:00PM ET Jun 18 $5 −$5 -100%
XRP Up or Down - May 25, 12:30AM-12:45AM ET Jun 18 $4 −$4 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - May 16, 1:45AM-2:00AM ET Jun 18 $3 −$3 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - May 22, 4:40PM-4:45PM ET Jun 18 $6 −$6 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - May 17, 4:50PM-4:55PM ET Jun 18 $2 −$2 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 17, 5:15PM-5:20PM ET Jun 18 $4 −$4 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 21, 11:50PM-11:55PM ET Jun 18 $10 −$10 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 16, 7:00PM-7:15PM ET Jun 18 $2 −$2 -100%
XRP Up or Down - May 17, 5:15PM-5:30PM ET Jun 18 $5 −$5 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - May 24, 9:15PM-9:30PM ET Jun 18 $6 −$6 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 16, 4:25PM-4:30PM ET Jun 18 $3 −$3 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - May 18, 7:15PM-7:20PM ET Jun 18 $4 −$4 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - May 18, 5:50AM-5:55AM ET Jun 18 $3 −$3 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 24, 6:00PM-6:15PM ET Jun 18 $0 $0 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 19, 9:00AM-9:15AM ET Jun 18 $4 −$4 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - May 19, 8:55AM-9:00AM ET Jun 18 $6 −$6 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - May 23, 12:05AM-12:10AM ET Jun 18 $6 −$6 -100%
Solana Up or Down - May 26, 9:30PM-9:45PM ET Jun 18 $9 −$9 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 19, 12:40PM-12:45PM ET Jun 18 $5 −$5 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 21, 4:55PM-5:00PM ET Jun 18 $4 −$4 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 23, 11:45PM-11:50PM ET Jun 18 $6 −$6 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - May 19, 10:30PM-10:45PM ET Jun 18 $6 −$6 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 25, 4:00PM-4:15PM ET Jun 18 $4 −$4 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - May 16, 8:15PM-8:30PM ET Jun 18 $11 −$11 -100%
Solana Up or Down - May 26, 4:45PM-5:00PM ET Jun 18 $7 −$7 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 16, 7:45PM-8:00PM ET Jun 18 $4 −$4 -100%
Solana Up or Down - May 22, 4:30AM-4:35AM ET Jun 18 $6 −$6 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - May 22, 4:35AM-4:40AM ET Jun 18 $6 −$6 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 22, 1:45AM-2:00AM ET Jun 18 $7 −$7 -100%
Solana Up or Down - May 23, 10:10AM-10:15AM ET Jun 18 $5 −$5 -100%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 11:30PM-11:35PM ET BUY Up 59¢ $1 56m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 11:30PM-11:35PM ET BUY Up 59¢ $6 56m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 11:30PM-11:35PM ET BUY Up 59¢ $2 56m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 11:30PM-11:35PM ET BUY Up 59¢ $1 56m
Pittsburgh Pirates vs. Athletics BUY Athletics 3¢ $6 1h
Baltimore Orioles vs. Seattle Mariners SELL Baltimore Orioles 92¢ $36 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 11:25PM-11:30PM ET SELL Up 14¢ $2 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 11:25PM-11:30PM ET BUY Up 61¢ $1 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 11:25PM-11:30PM ET BUY Up 61¢ $9 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 11:20PM-11:25PM ET SELL Down 91¢ $20 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 11:20PM-11:25PM ET BUY Down 48¢ $10 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 11:20PM-11:25PM ET BUY Down 48¢ $1 1h
Will Anthropic’s valuation hit (HIGH) $1.75T by June 30? SELL No 98¢ $70 1h
Will Israel launch a ground operation in Iran by June 30, 2026? SELL No 97¢ $70 1h
Will Israel launch a ground operation in Iran by June 30, 2026? BUY No 98¢ $35 1h
Baltimore Orioles vs. Seattle Mariners BUY Baltimore Orioles 64¢ $25 1h
Will Anthropic’s valuation hit (HIGH) $1.75T by June 30? BUY No 99¢ $35 1h
Will Anthropic’s valuation hit (HIGH) $1.75T by June 30? BUY No 99¢ $35 1h
Will Israel launch a ground operation in Iran by June 30, 2026? BUY No 98¢ $35 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 9:40PM-9:45PM ET SELL Down 54¢ $12 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 9:40PM-9:45PM ET BUY Down 43¢ $10 2h
Will Colombia win on 2026-06-17? AND Will United States win on 2026-06 BUY 20¢ $51 3h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 9:05PM-9:10PM ET SELL Down 6¢ $1 3h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 9:00PM-9:15PM ET BUY Down 8¢ $1 3h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 9:00PM-9:15PM ET BUY Down 8¢ $1 3h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 9:00PM-9:15PM ET BUY Down 8¢ $2 3h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 9:00PM-9:15PM ET BUY Down 8¢ $1 3h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 9:05PM-9:10PM ET BUY Down 38¢ $3 3h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 9:05PM-9:10PM ET BUY Down 38¢ $2 3h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 9:00PM-9:15PM ET SELL Up 92¢ $8 3h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
≈ Vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $82.05 · official $157.04 · 3500 history records