Wallet analysis

2026-06-17T18:48:56+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
FE 0xfe7c…b1aa crypto 15 markets active 0h ago coverage 1d
UNRELIABLEdata unreliable crypto specialistFresh edge⚠ High turnover⚠ Small sample
✗ only 1d of captured history — unreliable✗ negative after realistic slippage! high turnover! limited sample (<25 closed)
Total PnL −$12 (-5%) realized −$12 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -22% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -35% what you keep after slip
Net edge-35%after slip
Net WR40%break-even
Win rate40%6W / 9L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$15per market
Trades / day18.0pace
Kalshi-fit100%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 1d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 100% −$7
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +40%
net ROI/market (all)-29.1%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 15 -21.6% -29.1% 40% 40% -12.5%
≤30d 15 -21.6% -29.1% 40% 40% -12.5%
≤90d 15 -21.6% -29.1% 40% 40% -12.5%
all 15 -21.6% -29.1% 40% 40% -12.5%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover18.0 tr/day
realistic slip~9%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -29.1% 40% -12.5%
10% -35.9% 40% -20.8%
15% -42.1% 33% -28.5%
20% -47.8% 27% -35.5%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 29% · top 2 52% thin sample
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -3% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
0% wins margin < slip thin sample
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -22% · $-wt -3% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -68% → late +19% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.0 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$16 vs −$12 · ×1.4 wins ≈ losses
Profit factor
×0.93 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

1d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized−$12
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)40%
Wins / losses6 / 9
Open positions0
Markets (closed)15 / 15
History coverage1d
Avg bet$15
Trades / day18.0
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit100%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 15 Trades
no open positions (8 resolved losses — in realized PnL)
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 2:30PM-2:35PM ET Jun 17 $26 +$20 +76%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 2:25PM-2:30PM ET Jun 17 $26 +$8 +30%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 2:20PM-2:25PM ET Jun 17 $26 −$25 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 1:45PM-1:50PM ET Jun 17 $26 −$25 -98%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 1:40PM-1:45PM ET Jun 17 $16 −$15 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 1:35PM-1:40PM ET Jun 17 $15 +$6 +38%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 1:20PM-1:25PM ET Jun 17 $16 +$28 +178%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 1:15PM-1:20PM ET Jun 17 $18 +$23 +129%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 1:10PM-1:15PM ET Jun 17 $26 −$25 -98%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 1:05PM-1:10PM ET Jun 17 $1 −$1 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 1:00PM-1:05PM ET Jun 17 $10 +$13 +124%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 12:55PM-1:00PM ET Jun 17 $2 −$2 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 12:50PM-12:55PM ET Jun 17 $1 −$1 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 12:40PM-12:45PM ET Jun 17 $5 −$5 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 12:35PM-12:40PM ET Jun 17 $5 −$5 -95%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 24 history records