Wallet analysis

2026-06-20T20:35:41+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
FE 0xfe7c…451b world 30 markets active 1h ago coverage 467d
TRAPdo not copy
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage
Total PnL −$10 (-2%) realized −$10 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -9% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -18% what you keep after slip
Net edge-18%after slip
Net WR3%break-even
Win rate43%13W / 17L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$19per market
Trades / day0.2pace
Kalshi-fit70%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$0
7 days+$0
14 days−$5
30 days−$5
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
world 62% −$5
other 28% +$1
sports 3% −$1
crypto 3% −$1
politics 3% −$1
tech 2% −$2
economics 0% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +3%
net ROI/market (all)-18.0%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 7 +1.1% -8.6% 29% 0% -9.4%
≤30d 12 -1.2% -10.6% 25% 0% -10.6%
≤90d 12 -1.2% -10.6% 25% 0% -10.6%
all 30 -9.3% -18.0% 43% 3% -11.1%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.2 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -18.0% 3% -11.1%
10% -25.8% 0% -19.6%
15% -33.0% 0% -27.4%
20% -39.5% 0% -34.5%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 26% · top 2 42% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -1% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
92% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -9% · $-wt -2% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -17% → late -1% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.6 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$0 vs −$1 · ×0.18 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.24 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

467d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized−$10
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)43%
Wins / losses13 / 17
Open positions0
Markets (closed)30 / 30
History coverage467d
Avg bet$19
Trades / day0.2
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit70%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 30 Trades
no open positions
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Mojtaba Khamenei seen in public by June 30? Jun 20 $35 $0 -1%
Israel closes its airspace by July 15? Jun 19 $31 $0 +1%
Cuban regime falls in 2026? Jun 19 $35 $0 +0%
Will Naftali Bennett be the next Prime Minister of Israel? Jun 18 $31 $0 +0%
Israel closes its airspace by June 30? Jun 18 $60 $0 -0%
US x Russia military clash by December 31, 2026? Jun 15 $35 $0 +0%
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31? Jun 14 $5 $0 +7%
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra Jun 13 $26 −$6 -22%
Will the United Kingdom send warships through the Strait of Hormuz by Jun 13 $80 $0 +0%
Will Alberta join the US? Jun 07 $40 $0 +0%
Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by June 30? Jun 06 $40 $0 +0%
Will the U.S. invade Cuba in 2026? Jun 06 $20 $0 +0%
Will the Seattle Seahawks win Super Bowl 2026? Dec 17 $2 $0 -9%
Will Benfica win the FIFA Club World Cup? Dec 12 $1 $0 +2%
Will Meta have the top AI model on June 30? Dec 12 $6 $0 +2%
Will Perplexity AI buy TikTok? Jun 28 $3 −$2 -89%
Will Lee Jae-myung win 40-45% of the vote in the South Korea election? Jun 06 $2 $0 +1%
Will Trump pardon Hunter Biden in his first 100 days? May 07 $0 $0 -100%
Trump ends Ukraine war in first 90 days? Apr 24 $2 $0 +2%
Will Dyson Daniels win 2024-25 NBA Most Improved? Apr 19 $7 −$1 -12%
Will Bayer Leverkusen win the Bundesliga? Apr 17 $10 $0 +0%
Will Trump's approval rating be between 48.0% and 48.4% on March 28? Mar 30 $12 −$1 -11%
Will Bitcoin reach $100,000 again by March 31? Mar 27 $3 −$2 -74%
Will Israel win Eurovision 2025? Mar 24 $15 $0 +1%
Will the Washington Capitals win the 2025 Stanley Cup? Mar 24 $1 $0 +15%
Will Elon tweet 350-374 times March 21-28? Mar 23 $14 $0 +2%
Will Elon tweet 625-649 times March 14-21? Mar 22 $13 $0 +2%
No change in Fed interest rates after March 2025 meeting? Mar 16 $1 $0 -7%
Dogecoin above $0.20 on March 14? Mar 15 $13 +$1 +6%
Will Bayern Munich or Bayer Leverkusen advance in the UCL Round of 16? Mar 12 $14 $0 +4%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Mojtaba Khamenei seen in public by June 30? SELL No 97¢ $35 1h
Mojtaba Khamenei seen in public by June 30? BUY No 98¢ $35 3h
Israel closes its airspace by July 15? SELL No 88¢ $32 22h
Israel closes its airspace by July 15? BUY No 87¢ $31 27h
Cuban regime falls in 2026? SELL No 82¢ $35 35h
Cuban regime falls in 2026? BUY No 82¢ $35 37h
Will Naftali Bennett be the next Prime Minister of Israel? SELL No 85¢ $31 45h
Will Naftali Bennett be the next Prime Minister of Israel? BUY No 85¢ $31 2d
Israel closes its airspace by June 30? SELL No 95¢ $27 2d
Israel closes its airspace by June 30? SELL No 95¢ $2 2d
Israel closes its airspace by June 30? BUY No 95¢ $28 2d
Israel closes its airspace by June 30? SELL No 95¢ $31 2d
Israel closes its airspace by June 30? BUY No 95¢ $31 3d
US x Russia military clash by December 31, 2026? SELL No 93¢ $3 5d
US x Russia military clash by December 31, 2026? SELL No 93¢ $33 5d
US x Russia military clash by December 31, 2026? BUY No 93¢ $35 5d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31? SELL No 15¢ $5 6d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31? BUY No 14¢ $5 6d
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra SELL No 23¢ $18 7d
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra BUY No 30¢ $2 7d
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra BUY No 30¢ $22 7d
Will the United Kingdom send warships through the Strait of Hormuz by SELL No 96¢ $40 7d
Will the United Kingdom send warships through the Strait of Hormuz by BUY No 96¢ $40 7d
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra SELL No 35¢ $2 8d
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra BUY No 34¢ $0 8d
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra BUY No 34¢ $2 8d
Will the United Kingdom send warships through the Strait of Hormuz by SELL No 91¢ $40 8d
Will the United Kingdom send warships through the Strait of Hormuz by BUY No 91¢ $40 8d
Will Alberta join the US? SELL No 96¢ $9 13d
Will Alberta join the US? SELL No 96¢ $32 13d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 98 history records