trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?
| timeframe | markets | gross ROI | NET ROI | gross WR | NET WR | net PnL (wtd) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| ≤7d | 3 | -0.1% | -9.6% | 33% | 0% | -9.6% |
| ≤30d | 10 | -16.7% | -24.6% | 30% | 0% | -13.4% |
| ≤90d | 10 | -16.7% | -24.6% | 30% | 0% | -13.4% |
| all | 21 | -17.3% | -25.2% | 43% | 0% | -12.9% |
| copier slippage | NET ROI | NET WR | net PnL (wtd) |
|---|---|---|---|
| 5% ideal ← realistic here | -25.2% | 0% | -12.9% |
| 10% | -32.3% | 0% | -21.3% |
| 15% | -38.9% | 0% | -28.9% |
| 20% | -44.9% | 0% | -35.9% |
| Market | outcome | entry | now | invested | value | unrealized PnL |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Israel closes its airspace by July 31? | No | 84¢ | 84¢ | $26 | $26 | +$0 (+1%) |
| Will Russia capture all of Stepnohirsk by September 30, 2026? | No | 89¢ | 88¢ | $4 | $4 | −$0 (-1%) |
| Market | when | invested | PnL | ROI |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by October 31, 2026? | Jun 19 | $30 | $0 | -1% |
| Cuban regime falls in 2026? | Jun 18 | $13 | $0 | +0% |
| Israel withdraws from Lebanon by July 31, 2026? | Jun 18 | $29 | $0 | +1% |
| Iran agrees to surrender enriched uranium stockpile by May 31, 2026? | May 26 | $8 | −$1 | -13% |
| Iran closes its airspace by June 30? | May 26 | $56 | +$1 | +1% |
| Will Alberta join the US? | May 26 | $34 | $0 | +0% |
| Iran closes its airspace by May 31? | May 25 | $6 | −$2 | -37% |
| US x Iran permanent peace deal by July 31, 2026? | May 25 | $12 | −$1 | -8% |
| Will Reza Pahlavi enter Iran by June 30? | May 24 | $32 | $0 | +1% |
| US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? | May 23 | $44 | −$9 | -20% |
| Will DeepSeek have the top AI model on June 30? | Dec 15 | $11 | $0 | +3% |
| Fed decreases interest rates by 25 bps after June 2025 meeting? | Jun 19 | $2 | $0 | +3% |
| Will 'Seiko' win Crunchyroll's Best Supporting Character Award for 202 | May 21 | $11 | $0 | -1% |
| Will Sam Altman buy TikTok? | May 20 | $11 | $0 | +0% |
| Will the Denver Nuggets win the 2025 NBA Finals? | May 20 | $9 | +$1 | +9% |
| Will Red Bull Racing be the 2025 Constructors Champion? | May 18 | $1 | $0 | -15% |
| Will xAI have the top AI model on June 30? | May 17 | $12 | $0 | -1% |
| Will Trump's approval rating be between 48.0% and 48.4% on March 28? | Mar 30 | $11 | $0 | +3% |
| Will Jerome Powell say "Tariff" during the March meeting? | Mar 21 | $2 | −$2 | -100% |
| Will Elon tweet 475-499 times March 14-21? | Mar 20 | $11 | $0 | +2% |
| Will 'Novocaine' gross more than 11m on opening weekend? | Mar 18 | $2 | −$2 | -100% |