Wallet analysis

2026-06-15T17:06:53+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

4.5
score
FE 0xfe79…c9ea sports 12 markets active 739d ago coverage 43d
RISKYcopy with care ⚠ Small sample
! limited sample (<25 closed)
Total PnL +$21,881 (+223%) realized +$21,881 · open +$0
Gross ROI / mkt +300% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt +248% what you keep after slip
Net edge+248%after slip
Net WR25%break-even
Win rate33%4W / 8L
Drawdown7%max
Avg bet$818per market
Trades / day2.3pace
Kalshi-fit75%portable
Net worth$1now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days$0
7 days$0
14 days$0
30 days$0
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 85% +$22,150
sports 11% −$220
other 4% −$43
world 0% −$6
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
borderline — thin edge, slippage-sensitive
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +25%
net ROI/market (all)+262.3%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d no closed markets
≤30d no closed markets
≤90d no closed markets
all 12 +300.5% +262.3% 33% 25% +202.4%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover2.3 tr/day
realistic slip~7%
edge survives to20%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here +262.3% 25% +202.4%
10% +227.6% 25% +173.5%
15% +196.0% 25% +147.1%
20% +167.0% 25% +122.9%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 99% · top 2 100% thin sample
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI — too few recent
Fragile wins
25% wins margin < slip thin sample
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +300% · $-wt +237% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +340% → late +261% edge persists early→late
Add-ons / DCA
4.4 add-ons/market averages down — deposit killer
Win / loss size
+$5,937 vs −$234 · ×25.42 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×12.71 per $1 lost it wins $12.71
Copy size
≥ $300 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

43d coverage
Net worth$1
Realized+$21,881
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)33%
Wins / losses4 / 8
Open positions0
Markets (closed)12 / 12
History coverage43d
Avg bet$818
Trades / day2.3
Drawdown7%
Kalshi-fit75%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 12 Trades
no open positions (9 resolved losses — in realized PnL)
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Ethereum all time high in Q2 2024? Jun 07 $1,274 −$1,274 -100%
Will Carlos Alcaraz win the 2024 French Open Men's Singles? Jun 06 $189 +$91 +48%
Will another player win the 2024 French Open Men's Singles? Jun 03 $50 −$36 -72%
UFC 302: Sean Strickland vs. Paulo Costa Jun 02 $32 −$32 -100%
Will Novak Djokovic win the 2024 French Open Men's Singles? Jun 01 $158 −$98 -62%
Will Minnesota Timberwolves be 2023-24 NBA Champions? May 29 $452 −$352 -78%
Will Dallas Mavericks be 2023-24 NBA Champions? May 29 $484 +$5 +1%
Bitcoin all time high by Friday? May 22 $138 −$30 -22%
Ethereum spot ETF approved by June 30? May 21 $6,964 +$23,453 +337%
Will Iran blame Israel for helicopter crash? May 21 $6 −$6 -100%
NBA: Boston Celtics vs. Miami Heat 2024-04-24 Apr 25 $25 +$200 +800%
NBA: Oklahoma City Thunder vs. New Orleans Pelicans 2024-04-24 Apr 24 $50 −$41 -82%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Ethereum all time high in Q2 2024? BUY Yes 15¢ $56 738d
Will Carlos Alcaraz win the 2024 French Open Men's Singles? SELL Yes 57¢ $7 738d
Will Carlos Alcaraz win the 2024 French Open Men's Singles? SELL Yes 57¢ $48 739d
Will Carlos Alcaraz win the 2024 French Open Men's Singles? SELL Yes 57¢ $1 739d
Ethereum all time high in Q2 2024? BUY Yes 14¢ $46 740d
Will Carlos Alcaraz win the 2024 French Open Men's Singles? SELL Yes 43¢ $43 740d
Ethereum all time high in Q2 2024? BUY Yes 12¢ $48 741d
Ethereum all time high in Q2 2024? BUY Yes 13¢ $52 741d
Will Carlos Alcaraz win the 2024 French Open Men's Singles? SELL Yes 37¢ $54 741d
Will Carlos Alcaraz win the 2024 French Open Men's Singles? SELL Yes 34¢ $34 742d
Will another player win the 2024 French Open Men's Singles? SELL Yes $14 742d
Ethereum all time high in Q2 2024? BUY Yes 12¢ $96 742d
Will Carlos Alcaraz win the 2024 French Open Men's Singles? SELL Yes 36¢ $84 743d
Will Carlos Alcaraz win the 2024 French Open Men's Singles? SELL Yes 36¢ $3 743d
Will Carlos Alcaraz win the 2024 French Open Men's Singles? SELL Yes 36¢ $4 743d
Ethereum all time high in Q2 2024? BUY Yes 17¢ $85 743d
UFC 302: Sean Strickland vs. Paulo Costa BUY Costa 32¢ $32 743d
Will Novak Djokovic win the 2024 French Open Men's Singles? SELL Yes 33¢ $17 743d
Will Novak Djokovic win the 2024 French Open Men's Singles? SELL Yes 33¢ $10 744d
Will Novak Djokovic win the 2024 French Open Men's Singles? SELL Yes 33¢ $33 744d
Will Novak Djokovic win the 2024 French Open Men's Singles? SELL Yes 33¢ $0 744d
Ethereum all time high in Q2 2024? BUY Yes 21¢ $96 744d
Ethereum all time high in Q2 2024? BUY Yes 21¢ $9 744d
Ethereum all time high in Q2 2024? BUY Yes 25¢ $150 744d
Ethereum all time high in Q2 2024? BUY Yes 25¢ $68 745d
Ethereum all time high in Q2 2024? BUY Yes 25¢ $31 745d
Ethereum all time high in Q2 2024? BUY Yes 25¢ $1 746d
Will Minnesota Timberwolves be 2023-24 NBA Champions? SELL Yes $100 746d
Ethereum all time high in Q2 2024? BUY Yes 25¢ $180 747d
Will Dallas Mavericks be 2023-24 NBA Champions? SELL Yes 36¢ $0 747d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
Vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $1.02 · official $0.00 · 114 history records