Wallet analysis

2026-06-26T06:49:27+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

1.0
score
FE 0xfe78…6864 crypto 74 markets active 1h ago coverage 114d
TRAPdo not copy crypto specialist
✗ negative after realistic slippage
Total PnL −$10 (-0%) realized −$9 · open −$1
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -5% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -14% what you keep after slip
Net edge-14%after slip
Net WR38%break-even
Win rate49%36W / 37L
Whale WR0%big bets
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$87per market
Trades / day0.9pace
Fees−$0est.
Kalshi-fit97%portable
Net worth$54now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days$0
7 days−$1
14 days−$1
30 days−$4
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
politics 63% −$5
economics 36% −$2
crypto 1% −$4
other 0% $0
sports 0% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +38%
net ROI/market (all)-13.7%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 2 -12.8% -21.1% 50% 0% -25.9%
≤30d 8 -32.7% -39.1% 50% 25% -44.6%
≤90d 44 -7.6% -16.4% 48% 41% -13.4%
all 73 -4.6% -13.7% 49% 38% -9.7%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.9 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -13.7% 38% -9.7%
10% -22.0% 36% -18.3%
15% -29.5% 22% -26.2%
20% -36.4% 14% -33.4%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 9% · top 2 16% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -4% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
22% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -5% · $-wt -0% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 0% (≥$500) big bets weaker
Persistence
early -8% → late -1% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.1 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$0 vs −$1 · ×0.61 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.6 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

114d coverage
Net worth$54
Realized−$9
Unrealized−$1
Win rate (resolved)49%
Wins / losses36 / 37
Whale WR (big bets)0%
Est. fees paid−$0
Open positions1
Markets (closed)73 / 74
History coverage114d
Avg bet$87
Trades / day0.9
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit97%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 73 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Sorin Grindeanu be the next Prime Minister of Romania? Yes 53¢ 52¢ $55 $54 −$1 (-2%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 18 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 2:10AM-2:15AM ET Jun 23 $2 −$1 -28%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 11:00PM-11:05PM ET Jun 22 $1 $0 +3%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 1:35AM-1:40AM ET Jun 17 $1 $0 +34%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 9:35PM-9:40PM ET Jun 16 $1 −$1 -98%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 24, 11:05PM-11:10PM ET Jun 12 $1 $0 +6%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 4, 9:55PM-10:00PM ET Jun 12 $1 $0 +23%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 3:20AM-3:25AM ET Jun 10 $2 −$2 -99%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 8, 11:15PM-11:20PM ET Jun 09 $1 −$1 -98%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 22, 2:25AM-2:30AM ET May 22 $1 +$1 +86%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 21, 2:00AM-2:05AM ET May 21 $1 $0 +6%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 21, 2:05AM-2:10AM ET May 21 $1 −$1 -98%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 21, 1:30AM-1:35AM ET May 21 $1 −$1 -98%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 20, 9:15PM-9:20PM ET May 21 $1 $0 +36%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 20, 9:50PM-9:55PM ET May 21 $1 −$1 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 20, 9:30PM-9:35PM ET May 21 $1 −$1 -99%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 14, 11:25PM-11:30PM ET May 15 $1 +$1 +76%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 14, 9:10PM-9:15PM ET May 15 $1 +$1 +70%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 14, 11:15PM-11:20PM ET May 15 $1 −$1 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 12, 10:30PM-10:35PM ET May 13 $1 $0 +48%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 13, 12:25AM-12:30AM ET May 13 $1 +$1 +97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 13, 12:30AM-12:35AM ET May 13 $1 −$1 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 12, 10:50PM-10:55PM ET May 13 $1 −$1 -98%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 9, 2:00AM-2:05AM ET May 09 $1 $0 +25%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 9, 2:05AM-2:10AM ET May 09 $1 +$1 +57%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 9, 12:30AM-12:35AM ET May 09 $1 $0 +25%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 9, 1:35AM-1:40AM ET May 09 $1 +$1 +62%
Will Glenn Youngkin win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? May 08 $8 $0 -0%
Will Fernando Haddad win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? Apr 29 $8 $0 -0%
Will Judy Shelton be confirmed as Fed Chair? Apr 23 $8 $0 -0%
Will Donald Trump win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Apr 22 $8 $0 -0%
Will Elon Musk post 160-179 tweets from April 17 to April 24, 2026? Apr 20 $8 $0 -0%
Will Pete Buttigieg win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Apr 20 $8 $0 -0%
Will Tucker Carlson win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Apr 20 $8 $0 -0%
Iran x Israel/US conflict ends by December 31? Apr 19 $8 $0 -0%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 9, 10:05PM-10:10PM ET Apr 10 $1 $0 +28%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 9, 10:15PM-10:20PM ET Apr 10 $1 +$1 +86%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 9, 10:25PM-10:30PM ET Apr 10 $1 +$1 +100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 9, 10:20PM-10:25PM ET Apr 10 $1 +$1 +145%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 9, 10:30PM-10:35PM ET Apr 10 $1 −$1 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 29, 11:15PM-11:20PM ET Mar 30 $1 $0 +35%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 29, 11:05PM-11:10PM ET Mar 30 $1 $0 +47%
Ethereum Up or Down - March 29, 10:40PM-10:45PM ET Mar 30 $1 −$1 -98%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 29, 10:40PM-10:45PM ET Mar 30 $1 −$1 -98%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 29, 10:30PM-10:45PM ET Mar 30 $1 −$1 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - March 24, 1:45AM-2:00AM ET Mar 24 $1 $0 +15%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 24, 1:55AM-2:00AM ET Mar 24 $1 $0 +45%
Will Michelle Obama win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Mar 23 $7 $0 -0%
Solana Up or Down - March 23, 6:40AM-6:45AM ET Mar 23 $1 −$1 -98%
Will Matt Gaetz win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Mar 20 $8 $0 -0%
BNB Up or Down - March 15, 10:55PM-11:00PM ET Mar 16 $1 $0 +3%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Sorin Grindeanu be the next Prime Minister of Romania? BUY Yes 53¢ $51 1h
Will Sorin Grindeanu be the next Prime Minister of Romania? SELL Yes 53¢ $10 1h
Will Sorin Grindeanu be the next Prime Minister of Romania? SELL Yes 53¢ $6 1h
Will Sorin Grindeanu be the next Prime Minister of Romania? SELL Yes 53¢ $33 1h
Will Sorin Grindeanu be the next Prime Minister of Romania? SELL Yes 53¢ $3 1h
Will Sorin Grindeanu be the next Prime Minister of Romania? BUY Yes 53¢ $54 1h
Will Sorin Grindeanu be the next Prime Minister of Romania? SELL Yes 53¢ $54 1h
Will Sorin Grindeanu be the next Prime Minister of Romania? BUY Yes 52¢ $57 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 2:10AM-2:15AM ET BUY Down 57¢ $1 3d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 2:10AM-2:15AM ET BUY Up 68¢ $1 3d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 11:00PM-11:05PM ET BUY Down 97¢ $1 4d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 1:35AM-1:40AM ET BUY Up 73¢ $1 9d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 9:35PM-9:40PM ET BUY Down 68¢ $1 10d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 3:20AM-3:25AM ET BUY Down 91¢ $1 15d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 3:20AM-3:25AM ET BUY Down 81¢ $1 15d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 8, 11:15PM-11:20PM ET BUY Up 68¢ $1 17d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 4, 9:55PM-10:00PM ET BUY Up 80¢ $1 21d
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 24, 11:05PM-11:10PM ET BUY Up 94¢ $1 32d
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 22, 2:25AM-2:30AM ET BUY Up 52¢ $1 35d
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 21, 2:05AM-2:10AM ET BUY Up 77¢ $1 36d
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 21, 2:00AM-2:05AM ET BUY Up 94¢ $1 36d
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 21, 1:30AM-1:35AM ET BUY Down 67¢ $1 36d
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 20, 9:50PM-9:55PM ET BUY Up 55¢ $1 36d
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 20, 9:30PM-9:35PM ET BUY Down 82¢ $1 36d
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 20, 9:15PM-9:20PM ET BUY Down 72¢ $1 36d
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 14, 11:25PM-11:30PM ET BUY Up 55¢ $1 42d
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 14, 11:15PM-11:20PM ET BUY Up 62¢ $1 42d
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 14, 9:10PM-9:15PM ET BUY Up 57¢ $1 42d
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 13, 12:30AM-12:35AM ET BUY Up 48¢ $1 44d
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 13, 12:25AM-12:30AM ET BUY Up 49¢ $1 44d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $54.10 · official $54.10 (match) · 157 history records