Wallet analysis

2026-06-27T11:29:46+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

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FE 0xfe77…8fe4 sports 126 markets active 1h ago coverage 22d
TRAPdo not copy sports specialist⚠ High turnover
✗ negative after realistic slippage! high turnover
Total PnL −$5,073 (-6%) realized −$5,024 · open −$49
Gross ROI / mkt -16% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -33% what you keep after slip
Net edge-33%after slip
Net WR31%break-even
Win rate32%33W / 71L
Whale WR46%big bets
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$711per market
Trades / day16.3pace
Fees−$1,191est.
Kalshi-fit88%portable
Net worth$8,598now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$6,257
7 days+$5,144
14 days+$773
30 days−$2,724
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 89% −$1,889
other 10% −$884
world 0% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +31%
net ROI/market (all)-24.2%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 24 +12.3% +1.6% 38% 38% +27.2%
≤30d 104 -16.2% -24.2% 32% 31% -12.9%
≤90d 104 -16.2% -24.2% 32% 31% -12.9%
all 104 -16.2% -24.2% 32% 31% -12.9%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover16.3 tr/day
realistic slip~11%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -24.2% 31% -12.9%
10% ← realistic here -31.4% 29% -21.3%
15% -38.0% 22% -28.9%
20% -44.1% 17% -35.8%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 19% · top 2 25% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -4% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
3% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -16% · $-wt -4% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 46% (≥$1,015) neutral
Persistence
early -22% → late -10% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
2.6 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$692 vs −$360 · ×1.92 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×0.89 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $300 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

22d coverage
Net worth$8,598
Realized−$5,024
Unrealized−$49
Win rate (resolved)32%
Wins / losses33 / 71
Whale WR (big bets)46%
Est. fees paid−$1,191
Open positions12
Markets (closed)104 / 126
History coverage22d
Avg bet$711
Trades / day16.3
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit88%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 12 History 104 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
UFC Fight Night: Nursulton Ruziboev vs. Andrey Pulyaev (Middleweight, Prelims) Nursulton Ruziboev 64¢ 62¢ $2,095 $2,045 −$49 (-2%)
UFC Fight Night: Nazim Sadykhov vs. Matheus Camilo (Lightweight, Main Card) Nazim Sadykhov 63¢ 60¢ $1,997 $1,920 −$77 (-4%)
Wimbledon WTA: Antonia Ruzic vs Emma Raducanu Emma Raducanu 69¢ 70¢ $1,460 $1,492 +$32 (+2%)
UFC Fight Night: Julius Walker vs. Abdul-Rakhman Yakhyaev (Light Heavyweight, Prelims) Abdul-Rakhman Yakhyaev 79¢ 82¢ $1,000 $1,044 +$44 (+4%)
Phoenix Mercury vs. Toronto Tempo Phoenix Mercury 35¢ 34¢ $1,000 $985 −$15 (-1%)
Wimbledon ATP: Alexandre Muller vs Tommy Paul Tommy Paul 93¢ 92¢ $995 $984 −$11 (-1%)
Counter-Strike: Just Players vs OlyBet SB (BO3) - CCT Europe Challengers Series Playoffs OlyBet SB 19¢ 50¢ $15 $38 +$24 (+161%)
Counter-Strike: Monte vs Team Nemesis (BO1) - XSE Pro League Group Stage Monte 57¢ 62¢ $27 $29 +$2 (+8%)
Counter-Strike: Lilmix vs Subtop De France (BO3) - CCT Europe Challengers Series Playoffs Lilmix 66¢ 69¢ $16 $17 +$1 (+5%)
Counter-Strike: Entropy vs SAW (BO3) - CCT Europe Challengers Series Playoffs SAW 48¢ 51¢ $14 $15 +$1 (+6%)
Counter-Strike: Misa Esports vs Wampirki (BO3) - CCT Europe Challengers Series Playoffs Misa Esports 55¢ 56¢ $14 $14 +$0 (+2%)
Counter-Strike: BIG Academy vs Endless Journey (BO3) - CCT Europe Challengers Series Playoffs BIG Academy 53¢ 50¢ $14 $13 −$1 (-7%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 37 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Cabo Verde vs. Saudi Arabia: O/U 2.5 AND Will Spain win on 2026-06-26? Jun 27 $988 +$1,346 +136%
Will Türkiye win on 2026-06-25? AND Will Paraguay vs. Australia end in Jun 26 $297 +$620 +209%
Counter-Strike: Vasco Esports vs Isurus (BO3) - Thunderpick World Cham Jun 25 $19 −$6 -30%
Will Ecuador win on 2026-06-25? Jun 25 $906 +$4,293 +474%
Bad Homburg Open (Doubles): Perez/Schuurs vs Mihalikova/Nicholls Jun 25 $0 $0 -98%
Counter-Strike: ENJOY vs Julie&cie (BO3) - European Pro League Series Jun 25 $15 +$4 +26%
Will Ecuador vs. Germany end in a draw? Jun 25 $975 −$951 -98%
Counter-Strike: Keyd vs Yawara Esports (BO3) - Thunderpick World Champ Jun 24 $18 −$18 -100%
Counter-Strike: Inner Circle Esports vs Sharks (BO3) - Super DraculaN Jun 24 $19 −$19 -98%
Spread: England (-1.5) Jun 23 $1,005 +$1,434 +143%
Counter-Strike: K27 vs Walczaki (BO3) - DraculaN Group B Jun 23 $19 −$1 -5%
Lexus Eastbourne Open: Thiago Agustin Tirante vs Jacob Fearnley Jun 23 $1,015 −$34 -3%
Set Handicap: Fearnley (-1.5) vs Tirante (+1.5) Jun 23 $651 −$22 -3%
Valorant: FUSION vs LAZER (BO3) - VCL Latin America North: Regular Sea Jun 23 $16 +$13 +79%
Set Handicap: Fucsovics (-1.5) vs Moutet (+1.5) Jun 22 $523 −$18 -3%
Valorant: UCAM Esports Club vs Pixel Lumina (BO3) - VCL EMEA: Stage 3 Jun 22 $17 −$17 -99%
Will Belgium win on 2026-06-21? Jun 21 $2,019 −$2,000 -99%
Tunisia vs. Japan: Both Teams to Score Jun 21 $1,702 +$1,298 +76%
Spread: Netherlands (-1.5) Jun 21 $1,100 −$1,080 -98%
Counter-Strike: ECHO vs K27 (BO3) - Stake Ranked Episode 3: Closed Qua Jun 21 $19 −$19 -98%
Counter-Strike: ReThink vs roamsfiest (BO3) - Svenska CS-Ligan Group A Jun 21 $16 −$16 -99%
Counter-Strike: Lilmix vs ENERGYULTRA (BO3) - Svenska CS-Ligan Group A Jun 21 $15 −$15 -98%
UFC Fight Night: Melissa Mullins vs. Bia Mesquita (Women's Bantamweigh Jun 20 $1,358 +$319 +24%
Counter-Strike: KOLESIE vs INOX Division (BO3) - European Pro League S Jun 20 $19 +$32 +172%
Spread: Germany (-1.5) AND Netherlands vs. Sweden: O/U 2.5 Jun 20 $1,019 −$136 -13%
Spread: Brazil (-1.5) AND Will Morocco win on 2026-06-19? Jun 20 $1,017 +$1,221 +120%
Counter-Strike: 1WIN vs INOX Division (BO3) - CCT Europe Series #4 Pla Jun 19 $31 +$38 +124%
KBO: Kia Tigers vs. KT Wiz Jun 19 $943 −$927 -98%
Bosnia and Herzegovina vs. Qatar: O/U 2.5 Jun 19 $1,733 −$1,733 -100%
Valorant: Mandatory vs AlQadsiah Esports (BO3) - VCL EMEA: Stage 3 Gro Jun 19 $17 −$17 -99%
Mexico vs. Korea Republic: Both Teams to Score Jun 19 $1,016 +$1,206 +119%
Counter-Strike: Infinite vs Oxuji Esports (BO3) - European Pro League Jun 18 $20 +$19 +93%
Dota 2: GamerLegion vs 4 Anchors and Ilmeria (BO3) - The International Jun 17 $15 −$15 -100%
Will France win on 2026-06-16? Jun 16 $1,333 +$667 +50%
Counter-Strike: KOLESIE vs GenOne (BO3) - CCT Europe Series #4 Group S Jun 16 $20 −$19 -99%
Counter-Strike: K27 vs 100 Thieves (BO3) - NODWIN Clutch Series Playof Jun 16 $17 −$17 -99%
Will Uruguay win on 2026-06-15? Jun 15 $1,353 −$904 -67%
Will Belgium win on 2026-06-15? Jun 15 $1,254 −$962 -77%
Spread: Spain (-2.5) Jun 15 $2,787 −$2,641 -95%
UFC Fight Night: Kevin Borjas vs. Andre Lima (Flyweight, Main Card) Jun 15 $504 −$503 -100%
Counter-Strike: Infinite vs ex-RUBY (BO3) - NODWIN Clutch Series Playo Jun 15 $28 −$1 -5%
Counter-Strike: SPARTA vs INOX Division (BO3) - European Pro League Se Jun 15 $19 −$18 -98%
UFC Freedom 250: Michael Chandler vs. Mauricio Ruffy (Lightweight, Mai Jun 15 $4,640 +$934 +20%
Will Netherlands vs. Japan end in a draw? Jun 15 $306 +$694 +226%
Spread: Germany (-2.5) Jun 14 $1,392 +$608 +44%
Counter-Strike: K27 vs Walczaki (BO3) - NODWIN Clutch Series Playoffs Jun 14 $22 −$21 -98%
Counter-Strike: illwill vs Virtus.pro (BO3) - CCT Europe Series #4 Gro Jun 14 $25 −$24 -99%
Nottingham Open, Qualification: Anna Blinkova vs Anna Bondar Jun 14 $2,081 −$2,046 -98%
LoL: Solary vs UCAM Esports Club (BO5) - EMEA Masters Playoffs Jun 14 $35 −$34 -98%
Valorant: M80 vs SaD Esports (BO3) - VCL North America: Stage 3 Group Jun 14 $23 −$23 -98%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
UFC Fight Night: Nazim Sadykhov vs. Matheus Camilo (Lightweight, Main BUY Nazim Sadykhov 63¢ $1,891 41m
UFC Fight Night: Nazim Sadykhov vs. Matheus Camilo (Lightweight, Main BUY Nazim Sadykhov 62¢ $128 43m
UFC Fight Night: Nursulton Ruziboev vs. Andrey Pulyaev (Middleweight, BUY Nursulton Ruziboev 64¢ $2,117 1h
Phoenix Mercury vs. Toronto Tempo BUY Phoenix Mercury 35¢ $1,019 1h
Wimbledon WTA: Antonia Ruzic vs Emma Raducanu BUY Emma Raducanu 69¢ $1,473 2h
Wimbledon ATP: Alexandre Muller vs Tommy Paul BUY Tommy Paul 93¢ $997 3h
Counter-Strike: Entropy vs SAW (BO3) - CCT Europe Challengers Series P BUY SAW 48¢ $10 5h
Counter-Strike: Just Players vs OlyBet SB (BO3) - CCT Europe Challenge BUY OlyBet SB 19¢ $1 8h
Counter-Strike: Just Players vs OlyBet SB (BO3) - CCT Europe Challenge BUY OlyBet SB 19¢ $4 8h
Counter-Strike: Just Players vs OlyBet SB (BO3) - CCT Europe Challenge BUY OlyBet SB 19¢ $10 8h
Counter-Strike: Lilmix vs Subtop De France (BO3) - CCT Europe Challeng BUY Lilmix 66¢ $16 8h
Exact Score: New Zealand 0 - 2 Belgium? AND Exact Score: Egypt 1 - 1 I BUY $200 9h
Cabo Verde vs. Saudi Arabia: O/U 2.5 AND Will Spain win on 2026-06-26? BUY 42¢ $988 10h
New Zealand vs. Belgium: O/U 2.5 AND Cabo Verde vs. Saudi Arabia: O/U BUY $500 27h
Will Türkiye win on 2026-06-25? AND Will Paraguay vs. Australia end in BUY 32¢ $297 32h
Will Türkiye win on 2026-06-25? AND Exact Score: Paraguay 1 - 1 Austra BUY $299 33h
Bad Homburg Open (Doubles): Perez/Schuurs vs Mihalikova/Nicholls BUY Mihalikova/Nicholls 35¢ $0 37h
Counter-Strike: Misa Esports vs Wampirki (BO3) - CCT Europe Challenger BUY Misa Esports 55¢ $14 37h
Counter-Strike: BIG Academy vs Endless Journey (BO3) - CCT Europe Chal BUY BIG Academy 53¢ $14 38h
Counter-Strike: Vasco Esports vs Isurus (BO3) - Thunderpick World Cham BUY Isurus 71¢ $19 2d
Will Ecuador win on 2026-06-25? BUY Yes 17¢ $15 2d
Will Ecuador vs. Germany end in a draw? BUY Yes 18¢ $16 2d
Will Ecuador vs. Germany end in a draw? BUY Yes 18¢ $958 2d
Will Ecuador win on 2026-06-25? BUY Yes 17¢ $891 2d
Counter-Strike: ENJOY vs Julie&cie (BO3) - European Pro League Series BUY ENJOY 79¢ $2 2d
UFC Fight Night: Julius Walker vs. Abdul-Rakhman Yakhyaev (Light Heavy BUY Abdul-Rakhman Yakhyaev 79¢ $48 2d
UFC Fight Night: Julius Walker vs. Abdul-Rakhman Yakhyaev (Light Heavy BUY Abdul-Rakhman Yakhyaev 79¢ $376 2d
UFC Fight Night: Julius Walker vs. Abdul-Rakhman Yakhyaev (Light Heavy BUY Abdul-Rakhman Yakhyaev 79¢ $21 3d
UFC Fight Night: Julius Walker vs. Abdul-Rakhman Yakhyaev (Light Heavy BUY Abdul-Rakhman Yakhyaev 79¢ $559 3d
Counter-Strike: ENJOY vs Julie&cie (BO3) - European Pro League Series BUY ENJOY 79¢ $9 3d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $8,597.90 · official $8,598.18 (match) · 420 history records