Wallet analysis

2026-06-21T20:06:37+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

1.5
score
FE 0xfe73…0818 other 53 markets active 0h ago coverage 135d
TRAPdo not copy Fading edge
✗ negative after realistic slippage
Total PnL +$27 (+2%) realized +$27 · open +$0
Gross ROI / mkt -16% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -24% what you keep after slip
Net edge-24%after slip
Net WR49%break-even
Win rate49%23W / 24L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$27per market
Trades / day0.6pace
Fees−$4est.
Kalshi-fit51%portable
Net worth$150now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$81
7 days+$71
14 days+$71
30 days+$71
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
other 66% +$68
sports 23% −$78
crypto 7% +$20
politics 1% −$7
finance 1% $0
economics 1% +$1
culture 1% +$4
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +49%
net ROI/market (all)-24.4%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 35 -16.9% -24.8% 46% 46% -3.4%
≤30d 35 -16.9% -24.8% 46% 46% -3.4%
≤90d 40 -23.2% -30.5% 42% 42% -9.8%
all 47 -16.5% -24.4% 49% 49% -8.9%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.6 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -24.4% 49% -8.9%
10% -31.6% 38% -17.6%
15% -38.2% 32% -25.6%
20% -44.3% 17% -32.9%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 21% · top 2 36% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -0% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
0% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -16% · $-wt +1% edge needs big-bet sizing — not flat-copyable
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +0% → late -33% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
1.1 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$14 vs −$13 · ×1.07 wins ≈ losses
Profit factor
×1.03 profit barely above losses
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

135d coverage
Net worth$150
Realized+$27
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)49%
Wins / losses23 / 24
Est. fees paid−$4
Open positions5
Markets (closed)47 / 53
History coverage135d
Avg bet$27
Trades / day0.6
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit51%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 5 History 47 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will France win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 19¢ 20¢ $70 $71 +$1 (+2%)
Belgium to score first vs. IR Iran? Yes 73¢ 74¢ $30 $30 +$0 (+1%)
Belgium vs. IR Iran: Belgium O/U 1.5 Over 64¢ 60¢ $30 $28 −$2 (-5%)
Will Argentina win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 11¢ 12¢ $10 $11 +$1 (+7%)
Will Spain win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 16¢ 14¢ $10 $9 −$1 (-11%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 1 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Belgium win on 2026-06-21? Jun 21 $50 −$7 -15%
Will Spain win on 2026-06-21? Jun 21 $100 +$12 +12%
Spain leading at halftime? Jun 21 $101 +$36 +36%
Spain vs. Saudi Arabia: 1st Half O/U 0.5 Jun 21 $40 +$7 +18%
Japan to win the second half? Jun 21 $101 +$68 +67%
Will Germany win on 2026-06-20? Jun 20 $96 +$47 +49%
Germany vs. Côte d'Ivoire: Germany O/U 1.5 Jun 20 $20 +$10 +50%
United States vs. Australia: United States 2nd Half O/U 0.5 Jun 20 $10 −$10 -100%
Will Switzerland vs. Bosnia and Herzegovina end in a draw? Jun 20 $5 −$5 -100%
Will Mexico vs. Korea Republic end in a draw? Jun 20 $10 −$10 -100%
Will Canada vs. Qatar end in a draw? Jun 20 $5 −$5 -100%
Christian Pulisic: 1+ goals Jun 20 $10 −$10 -100%
Brazil vs. Haiti: Brazil 2nd Half O/U 1.5 Jun 20 $20 −$20 -100%
United States vs. Australia: United States O/U 2.5 Jun 20 $10 −$10 -100%
Türkiye vs. Paraguay: Both Teams to Score Jun 20 $20 −$20 -100%
Santiago Giménez: 1+ goals Jun 20 $10 −$10 -100%
Türkiye vs. Paraguay: O/U 6.5 Total Corners Jun 20 $20 −$20 -100%
Will Scottie Scheffler win the 2026 Masters tournament? Jun 20 $25 −$25 -100%
Germany to score first vs. Côte d'Ivoire? Jun 20 $20 −$20 -99%
Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-20? Jun 20 $101 +$20 +20%
Brazil vs. Haiti: Both Teams to Score Jun 20 $4 +$3 +67%
Brazil leading at halftime? Jun 20 $20 +$8 +39%
Vinícius Júnior: 1+ goals Jun 20 $20 +$16 +81%
Brazil vs. Haiti: 1st Half O/U 1.5 Jun 20 $20 −$1 -7%
Will Morocco win on 2026-06-19? Jun 19 $10 +$5 +47%
Will United States win on 2026-06-19? Jun 19 $102 +$25 +25%
Will Morocco win Group C in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 19 $10 $0 -4%
Will Mexico win on 2026-06-18? Jun 19 $8 +$9 +109%
Mexico to score first vs. Korea Republic? Jun 19 $10 +$7 +73%
Will Canada win on 2026-06-18? Jun 19 $5 +$2 +32%
Will Max Verstappen be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Jun 18 $23 −$20 -89%
Will Red Bull Racing be the 2026 F1 Constructors' Champion? Jun 18 $10 −$9 -93%
Will JD Vance win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Jun 18 $10 −$4 -35%
Will J.D. Vance win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Jun 18 $10 −$3 -34%
Will Czechia vs. South Africa end in a draw? Jun 18 $5 +$8 +162%
Will Barcelona win the 2025–26 La Liga? May 14 $10 +$6 +61%
Will CF Universidad de Chile win on 2026-02-08? Mar 23 $10 −$10 -100%
S&P 500 (SPX) Opens Up or Down on February 12? Mar 23 $10 −$10 -100%
Will Arsenal FC win on 2026-02-12? Mar 23 $10 −$10 -100%
Will CF Universidad de Chile win on 2026-02-13? Mar 23 $50 −$50 -100%
Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the March 2026 mee Mar 21 $10 +$1 +15%
Will One Battle After Another win Best Picture at the 98th Academy Awa Mar 21 $10 +$4 +35%
Will CD Huachipato win on 2026-02-08? Feb 10 $20 +$4 +19%
S&P 500 (SPX) Opens Up or Down on February 9? Feb 10 $10 +$10 +100%
Seahawks vs. Patriots Feb 09 $10 +$4 +45%
Will "Tití Me Preguntó" be played first at the Super Bowl halftime sho Feb 09 $20 +$8 +41%
Will the Gatorade shower at Super Bowl LX be green/yellow? Feb 09 $20 −$20 -100%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Belgium win on 2026-06-21? SELL Yes 61¢ $43 15m
Belgium to score first vs. IR Iran? BUY Yes 73¢ $30 1h
Belgium vs. IR Iran: Belgium O/U 1.5 BUY Over 64¢ $30 1h
Will Belgium win on 2026-06-21? BUY Yes 70¢ $50 1h
Will Spain win on 2026-06-21? SELL Yes 100¢ $112 3h
Spain leading at halftime? SELL Yes 100¢ $137 3h
Spain vs. Saudi Arabia: 1st Half O/U 0.5 SELL Over 100¢ $48 3h
Spain vs. Saudi Arabia: 1st Half O/U 0.5 BUY Over 84¢ $40 4h
Spain leading at halftime? BUY Yes 73¢ $101 4h
Will Spain win on 2026-06-21? BUY Yes 89¢ $100 4h
Japan to win the second half? BUY Yes 59¢ $101 15h
Will Germany win on 2026-06-20? BUY Yes 67¢ $25 24h
Will France win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 20¢ $51 26h
Germany vs. Côte d'Ivoire: Germany O/U 1.5 BUY Over 66¢ $20 26h
Germany to score first vs. Côte d'Ivoire? BUY Yes 70¢ $20 26h
Will Germany win on 2026-06-20? BUY Yes 67¢ $50 26h
Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-20? SELL Yes 94¢ $120 26h
Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-20? BUY Yes 78¢ $101 26h
Türkiye vs. Paraguay: O/U 6.5 Total Corners BUY Under 19¢ $20 41h
Türkiye vs. Paraguay: Draw at halftime? AND Türkiye to win the second BUY 28¢ $20 41h
Türkiye vs. Paraguay: Both Teams to Score BUY Yes 53¢ $20 41h
Brazil leading at halftime? SELL Yes 100¢ $28 42h
Brazil vs. Haiti: Brazil 2nd Half O/U 1.5 BUY Over 62¢ $20 42h
Vinícius Júnior: 1+ goals SELL Yes 99¢ $37 42h
Brazil vs. Haiti: 1st Half O/U 1.5 SELL Over 49¢ $19 43h
Will Morocco win on 2026-06-19? SELL Yes 84¢ $15 44h
Brazil vs. Haiti: Both Teams to Score BUY No 59¢ $4 2d
United States vs. Australia: United States 2nd Half O/U 0.5 BUY Over 76¢ $10 2d
Will Morocco win Group C in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL Yes 30¢ $10 2d
Will Germany win on 2026-06-20? BUY Yes 64¢ $20 2d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $149.62 · official $150.45 (match) · 233 history records