Wallet analysis

2026-06-12T11:41:55+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

FE
0xfe72…f18c
world · 481 markets active 0h ago
1.0score
+$9,283 +5%
TOTAL PnL · realized +$13,073 · open −$5,346
avoidriskycopy
✗ TRAP Fading edge⚠ High turnover
Copy trade Watchlist
Net worth$4,885
Realized+$13,073
Unrealized−$5,346
Win rate (resolved)63%
Wins / losses282 / 169
Whale WR (big bets)77%
Est. fees paid−$8
Open positions30
Markets (closed)451 / 481
Avg bet$388
Trades / day34.0
Drawdown21%
Kalshi-fit73%
Chart Positions 30 History 451 Categories Trades Net edge Slippage
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$1,376
7 days+$60
14 days+$34
30 days−$581
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Starmer out by July 31, 2026? Yes 39¢ 42¢ $778 $830 +$52 (+7%)
Starmer out by June 30, 2026? Yes 29¢ 16¢ $1,155 $660 −$495 (-43%)
Israel withdraws from Lebanon by July 31, 2026? Yes 16¢ 18¢ $452 $508 +$56 (+12%)
US strike on Cuba by December 31? Yes 46¢ 40¢ $463 $405 −$58 (-13%)
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $100 in June? Yes 55¢ 20¢ $820 $308 −$512 (-62%)
Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (HIGH) $105 by end of June? Yes 48¢ 17¢ $716 $255 −$461 (-64%)
Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (HIGH) $115 by end of June? Yes 61¢ 6¢ $2,437 $250 −$2,187 (-90%)
Will Iran close its airspace by July 31? Yes 63¢ 26¢ $534 $222 −$312 (-58%)
Will 60 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by June 30, 2026? No 86¢ 70¢ $216 $176 −$39 (-18%)
Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by August 31? No 89¢ 88¢ $178 $176 −$2 (-1%)
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June? No 83¢ 78¢ $182 $173 −$9 (-5%)
Will Crude Oil (CL) settle over $85 on the final trading day of June 2026? Yes 67¢ 62¢ $143 $133 −$10 (-7%)
Starmer out by August 31, 2026? Yes 58¢ 57¢ $120 $117 −$3 (-2%)
Will 20 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by June 30, 2026? Yes 50¢ 50¢ $99 $101 +$2 (+2%)
Will Crude Oil reach a new all-time high by September 30? Yes 31¢ 12¢ $219 $84 −$135 (-62%)
Will the New York Knicks win the 2026 NBA Finals? Yes 78¢ 81¢ $78 $81 +$3 (+4%)
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $105 in June? Yes 41¢ 10¢ $308 $71 −$237 (-77%)
Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (HIGH) $110 by end of June? Yes 35¢ 9¢ $262 $68 −$195 (-74%)
Will the next diplomatic US-Iran meeting be in Switzerland? Yes 40¢ 33¢ $80 $66 −$14 (-17%)
Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (HIGH) $120 by end of June? Yes 50¢ 4¢ $803 $59 −$743 (-93%)
Will Crude Oil (CL) settle over $90 on the final trading day of June 2026? Yes 51¢ 44¢ $50 $43 −$7 (-14%)
Will Taylor Swift get married in Manhattan? No 25¢ 26¢ $25 $26 +$2 (+6%)
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $95 in June? Yes 86¢ 40¢ $52 $24 −$28 (-54%)
Will Google have the best Math AI model at the end of June 2026? Yes 59¢ 52¢ $18 $15 −$2 (-13%)
Will Anthropic’s valuation hit (HIGH) $1.1T by June 30? Yes 48¢ 28¢ $25 $15 −$10 (-40%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will 40 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by June 30, 2026 Jun 12 $571 −$38 -7%
Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (HIGH) $130 by end of June? Jun 12 $905 −$622 -69%
Will Iran close its airspace by August 31? Jun 12 $285 −$137 -48%
Will Iran close its airspace by July 15? Jun 12 $258 −$172 -66%
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (LOW) $85 Week of June 8 2026? Jun 12 $17 +$13 +72%
Will Iran close its airspace by June 30? Jun 12 $422 −$194 -46%
Will USD reach 1.9M Iranian rials by June 30? Jun 12 $66 −$30 -45%
Will Iran close its airspace by June 14? Jun 12 $20 +$15 +73%
Will Iran close its airspace by June 13? Jun 12 $9 $0 +5%
Will Iran close its airspace by June 15? Jun 12 $29 −$24 -84%
Will Iran close its airspace by June 12? Jun 12 $85 −$76 -89%
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $110 in June? Jun 12 $63 −$10 -16%
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $130 in June? Jun 12 $46 −$29 -64%
Will Roberto Sánchez Palomino win the 2026 Peruvian presidential elect Jun 12 $727 +$65 +9%
Bab el-Mandeb Strait effectively closed by June 30? Jun 12 $62 −$34 -54%
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $120 in June? Jun 12 $33 −$25 -75%
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $125 in June? Jun 12 $10 −$9 -87%
Will Iran close its airspace by June 11? Jun 12 $37 −$30 -82%
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $105 Week of June 8 2026? Jun 12 $12 −$11 -98%
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $100 Week of June 8 2026? Jun 12 $70 −$69 -99%
Trump on $250 bill this year? Jun 12 $22 −$3 -14%
Will 80 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by June 30, 2026 Jun 12 $28 −$4 -14%
Will USD reach 2.0M Iranian rials by June 30? Jun 12 $12 −$4 -35%
Israel closes its airspace by June 30? Jun 12 $394 −$27 -7%
Bab el-Mandeb Strait effectively closed by September 30? Jun 12 $226 +$95 +42%
Will Iran close its airspace by June 10? Jun 11 $60 −$27 -44%
Will Crude Oil reach a new all-time high by December 31? Jun 10 $25 −$3 -10%
Will Anthropic flip BTC by December 31? Jun 10 $69 −$41 -59%
Will Silver (SI) hit (HIGH) $85 by end of June? Jun 10 $75 −$72 -96%
Will the United States send warships through the Strait of Hormuz by J Jun 10 $18 −$4 -24%
Will the US strike 8 countries in 2026? Jun 10 $18 −$1 -8%
Will Karen Bass win the first round of the 2026 Los Angeles Mayoral El Jun 10 $9 $0 +0%
Will no qualifying diplomatic US-Iran meeting occur by June 30, 2026? Jun 10 $289 +$16 +6%
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31? Jun 10 $424 +$110 +26%
Will the next diplomatic US-Iran meeting be in Pakistan? Jun 10 $156 +$28 +18%
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by July 31, 2026? Jun 10 $26 +$18 +70%
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (LOW) $80 in June? Jun 10 $149 +$4 +2%
Israeli parliament dissolved by July 31? Jun 10 $511 −$33 -6%
Israeli parliament dissolved by June 30? Jun 10 $43 −$10 -23%
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 30? Jun 10 $58 +$22 +37%
Will there be between 0 and 10 average daily transits of the Strait of Jun 10 $26 +$1 +4%
Will Bitcoin dip to $60,000 by December 31, 2026? Jun 09 $66 +$7 +11%
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by June 30, 2026? Jun 09 $144 +$78 +54%
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31? Jun 09 $95 +$62 +65%
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra Jun 09 $323 +$41 +13%
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra Jun 09 $90 +$2 +2%
Will any flight depart from Imam Khomeini International Airport by Jun Jun 09 $5 $0 +7%
Will any flight depart from Imam Khomeini International Airport by Jun Jun 09 $62 +$18 +30%
Will any flight depart from Imam Khomeini International Airport by Jun Jun 09 $67 +$13 +19%
Israel closes its airspace by June 15? Jun 08 $713 +$64 +9%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
world 49% +$14,252
finance 27% −$4,144
other 17% −$2,864
politics 7% +$784
sports 0% −$69
economics 0% −$239
crypto 0% −$33
culture 0% +$19
tech 0% +$22
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June? BUY No 78¢ $16 0m
Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (HIGH) $115 by end of June? SELL Yes 6¢ $0 13m
Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (HIGH) $115 by end of June? SELL Yes 6¢ $0 25m
Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (HIGH) $115 by end of June? SELL Yes 6¢ $4 36m
Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (HIGH) $115 by end of June? SELL Yes 6¢ $11 54m
Will Bosnia and Herzegovina win on 2026-06-12? BUY Yes 21¢ $6 1h
Starmer out by August 31, 2026? BUY Yes 59¢ $3 1h
Israel withdraws from Lebanon by July 31, 2026? BUY Yes 18¢ $6 1h
Will the next diplomatic US-Iran meeting be in Switzerland? BUY Yes 40¢ $80 1h
Starmer out by August 31, 2026? BUY Yes 59¢ $11 1h
Starmer out by August 31, 2026? BUY Yes 59¢ $48 1h
Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by August 31? BUY No 89¢ $89 1h
US strike on Cuba by December 31? BUY Yes 41¢ $164 1h
Will 40 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by June 30, 2026 SELL No 62¢ $285 1h
Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (HIGH) $130 by end of June? SELL Yes 2¢ $33 1h
Will 20 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by June 30, 2026 BUY Yes 50¢ $67 1h
Starmer out by August 31, 2026? BUY Yes 59¢ $15 1h
Israel withdraws from Lebanon by July 31, 2026? BUY Yes 17¢ $5 1h
Israel withdraws from Lebanon by July 31, 2026? BUY Yes 17¢ $23 1h
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $100 in June? SELL Yes 20¢ $89 1h
Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by August 31? BUY No 89¢ $89 1h
Will 20 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by June 30, 2026 BUY Yes 49¢ $27 1h
Israel withdraws from Lebanon by July 31, 2026? BUY Yes 17¢ $34 1h
Will Iran close its airspace by August 31? SELL Yes 37¢ $148 1h
Will Iran close its airspace by July 15? SELL Yes 21¢ $18 1h
Will Iran close its airspace by July 15? SELL Yes 22¢ $69 1h
Will 20 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by June 30, 2026 BUY Yes 49¢ $2 1h
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (LOW) $85 Week of June 8 2026? SELL Yes 100¢ $30 1h
Will Iran close its airspace by August 31? SELL Yes 42¢ $0 1h
Israel withdraws from Lebanon by July 31, 2026? BUY Yes 17¢ $172 1h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +35%
net ROI/market (all)-13.7%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 69 -7.5% -16.3% 48% 30% -9.0%
≤30d 161 -11.1% -19.6% 51% 29% -11.2%
≤90d 395 -7.1% -16.0% 60% 33% -7.3%
all 451 -4.6% -13.7% 63% 35% -2.4%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.
turnover34.0 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -13.7% 35% -2.4%
10% ← realistic here -22.0% 21% -11.8%
15% -29.5% 11% -20.3%
20% -36.4% 6% -28.1%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $4,885.09 · official $4,870.61 (match) · 3500 history records