Wallet analysis

2026-06-24T09:59:31+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

2.0
score
FE 0xfe72…9025 crypto 48 markets active 2h ago coverage 25d
TRAPdo not copy Fading edge⚠ High turnover
✗ negative after realistic slippage! high turnover
Total PnL +$1,384 (+12%) realized +$3,043 · open −$1,659
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -6% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -21% what you keep after slip
Net edge-21%after slip
Net WR38%break-even
Win rate49%23W / 24L
Whale WR67%big bets
Drawdown31%max
Avg bet$245per market
Trades / day8.1pace
Kalshi-fit81%portable
Net worth$1,207now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$58
7 days+$117
14 days+$1,423
30 days+$2,756
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
other 42% −$1,371
world 32% +$823
crypto 12% +$460
tech 11% +$1,171
politics 3% +$13
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +38%
net ROI/market (all)-14.6%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 7 -40.4% -46.1% 29% 29% +2.2%
≤30d 47 -5.6% -14.6% 49% 38% +18.7%
≤90d 47 -5.6% -14.6% 49% 38% +18.7%
all 47 -5.6% -14.6% 49% 38% +18.7%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover8.1 tr/day
realistic slip~9%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -14.6% 38% +18.7%
10% -22.8% 30% +7.4%
15% -30.2% 23% -3.0%
20% -37.1% 17% -12.5%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 30% · top 2 52% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +31% fresh edge ✓
Fragile wins
22% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -6% · $-wt +31% edge needs big-bet sizing — not flat-copyable
Big bets
big-bet WR 67% (≥$500) strong on big bets
Persistence
early +4% → late -15% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
2.9 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$189 vs −$66 · ×2.85 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×2.73 per $1 lost it wins $2.73
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

25d coverage
Net worth$1,207
Realized+$3,043
Unrealized−$1,659
Win rate (resolved)49%
Wins / losses23 / 24
Whale WR (big bets)67%
Open positions1
Markets (closed)47 / 48
History coverage25d
Avg bet$245
Trades / day8.1
Drawdown31%
Kalshi-fit81%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 47 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Claude Fable 5 be restored for US customers by July 1? Yes 53¢ 22¢ $2,866 $1,207 −$1,659 (-58%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 3 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Claude Fable 5 be restored for US customers by July 31? Jun 24 $425 +$79 +19%
Will Claude Mythos 5 be restored for US customers by June 30? Jun 24 $31 −$21 -66%
Will Claude Fable 5 be restored for US customers by June 22? Jun 22 $26 −$24 -93%
Starmer out by June 22, 2026? Jun 22 $212 +$104 +49%
Will Trump physically sign US x Iran deal? Jun 17 $200 −$15 -7%
Will Sánchez win the 2nd round of the 2026 Peru presidential election Jun 17 $4 −$4 -99%
Israel x Hamas Ceasefire Phase II by June 30? Jun 17 $3 −$2 -80%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? Jun 16 $10 −$2 -20%
Will France win on 2026-06-16? Jun 16 $9 +$4 +48%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 5:10AM-5:15AM ET Jun 15 $6 −$6 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 1:35AM-1:40AM ET Jun 15 $3 +$4 +121%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 1:30AM-1:35AM ET Jun 15 $2 −$2 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 1:25AM-1:30AM ET Jun 15 $2 +$2 +76%
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 17? Jun 15 $1,414 +$958 +68%
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 15? Jun 13 $599 −$288 -48%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? Jun 13 $264 −$90 -34%
Will an Anthropic Claude model score at least 50% on Humanity’s Last E Jun 13 $504 −$340 -67%
Will SpaceX's market cap be between $1.5T and $2.0T at market close on Jun 12 $135 −$134 -100%
Will SpaceX's market cap be between $2.0T and $2.5T at market close on Jun 12 $1,124 +$1,310 +117%
Will Bitcoin dip to $47,500 in June? Jun 12 $311 −$239 -77%
Will Trump agree to unfreeze Iranian assets by June 30? Jun 11 $607 +$115 +19%
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June? Jun 11 $200 +$71 +35%
Will Hamas agree to disarm by June 30? Jun 11 $100 −$59 -59%
Israel x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? Jun 09 $99 +$51 +51%
Will Trump agree to Iranian oil sanction relief by June 30? Jun 09 $100 +$8 +8%
Will a Claude Mythos model be released by June 9, 2026? Jun 09 $827 +$504 +61%
Will Fujimori win the 2nd round of the 2026 Peru presidential election Jun 09 $301 +$18 +6%
Will Microstrategy announce a Bitcoin purchase June 2-8? Jun 07 $272 −$256 -94%
Will Bitcoin dip to $60,000 in June? Jun 05 $315 +$967 +307%
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra Jun 03 $143 +$78 +54%
Trump declassifies new UFO files by June 15? Jun 03 $6 −$2 -26%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $72,000 on June 3? Jun 02 $260 +$59 +23%
Will NVIDIA (NVDA) hit (HIGH) $248 in June? Jun 02 $14 +$2 +14%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 31, 5:20PM-5:25PM ET May 31 $5 $0 -6%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 31, 4:25PM-4:30PM ET May 31 $5 $0 -6%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by December 31, 2026? May 31 $50 −$3 -5%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 30, 12:25PM-12:30PM ET May 30 $67 −$67 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 30, 12:15PM-12:20PM ET May 30 $51 +$13 +26%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 30, 12:10PM-12:15PM ET May 30 $5 $0 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 30, 12:05PM-12:10PM ET May 30 $4 +$1 +19%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 30, 11:50AM-11:55AM ET May 30 $4 $0 +1%
SpaceX IPO closing market cap above $2.2T? May 30 $64 −$6 -10%
BNB Up or Down - May 30, 8:35AM-8:40AM ET May 30 $18 −$18 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 30, 8:10AM-8:15AM ET May 30 $5 −$1 -10%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 30, 7:05AM-7:10AM ET May 30 $18 −$18 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 30, 7:00AM-7:15AM ET May 30 $11 +$1 +7%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 30, 4:10AM-4:15AM ET May 30 $10 +$2 +25%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Claude Fable 5 be restored for US customers by July 31? SELL Yes 76¢ $190 1h
Will Claude Fable 5 be restored for US customers by July 31? BUY Yes 79¢ $202 1h
Will Claude Fable 5 be restored for US customers by July 1? BUY Yes 26¢ $103 1h
Will Claude Fable 5 be restored for US customers by July 31? SELL Yes 78¢ $314 1h
Will Claude Fable 5 be restored for US customers by July 1? BUY Yes 26¢ $9 1h
Will Claude Mythos 5 be restored for US customers by June 30? SELL Yes 11¢ $8 1h
Will Claude Fable 5 be restored for US customers by July 31? BUY Yes 54¢ $223 20h
Will Claude Fable 5 be restored for US customers by July 1? BUY Yes 46¢ $5 47h
Will Claude Fable 5 be restored for US customers by July 1? BUY Yes 44¢ $55 47h
Will Claude Fable 5 be restored for US customers by June 22? BUY Yes 8¢ $10 2d
Starmer out by June 22, 2026? SELL Yes 100¢ $63 2d
Starmer out by June 22, 2026? SELL Yes 100¢ $253 2d
Will Claude Fable 5 be restored for US customers by July 1? BUY Yes 57¢ $180 2d
Will Claude Fable 5 be restored for US customers by July 1? BUY Yes 51¢ $22 2d
Will Claude Fable 5 be restored for US customers by July 1? BUY Yes 55¢ $23 2d
Will Claude Fable 5 be restored for US customers by July 1? BUY Yes 55¢ $102 2d
Will Claude Fable 5 be restored for US customers by July 1? BUY Yes 47¢ $20 2d
Will Claude Fable 5 be restored for US customers by July 1? BUY Yes 47¢ $4 2d
Starmer out by June 22, 2026? BUY Yes 63¢ $41 3d
Starmer out by June 22, 2026? BUY Yes 67¢ $171 3d
Will Claude Mythos 5 be restored for US customers by June 30? BUY Yes 37¢ $19 3d
Will Claude Mythos 5 be restored for US customers by June 30? BUY Yes 37¢ $7 3d
Will Claude Mythos 5 be restored for US customers by June 30? SELL No 56¢ $3 3d
Will Claude Fable 5 be restored for US customers by June 22? BUY Yes 27¢ $3 5d
Will Claude Fable 5 be restored for US customers by July 1? BUY Yes 37¢ $200 6d
Will Claude Fable 5 be restored for US customers by July 1? BUY Yes 50¢ $80 6d
Will Claude Fable 5 be restored for US customers by July 1? BUY Yes 48¢ $306 6d
Will Trump physically sign US x Iran deal? SELL Yes 71¢ $185 6d
Will Trump physically sign US x Iran deal? BUY Yes 77¢ $200 6d
Will Sánchez win the 2nd round of the 2026 Peru presidential election SELL Yes 0¢ $0 6d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $1,206.97 · official $1,206.97 (match) · 227 history records