Wallet analysis

2026-06-15T14:44:07+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
FE 0xfe70…ffc1 sports 39 markets active 1h ago coverage 3d
BOTnot copyable sports specialistFresh edge⚠ High turnover
✗ bot/MM pace (680 trades/day) — uncopyable✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage
Total PnL +$666 (+1%) realized +$671 · open −$5
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +90% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt +41% what you keep after slip
Net edge+41%after slip
Net WR13%break-even
Win rate53%20W / 18L
Whale WR80%big bets
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$1,673per market
Trades / day679.8pace
Fees−$1,599est.
Kalshi-fit97%portable
Net worth$1now

Equity curve

realized PnL
Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 3d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 100% −$635
other 0% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
uncopyable — bot pace (680 trades/day)
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +13%
net ROI/market (all)+72.1%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 38 +90.2% +72.1% 53% 13% -10.5%
≤30d 38 +90.2% +72.1% 53% 13% -10.5%
≤90d 38 +90.2% +72.1% 53% 13% -10.5%
all 38 +90.2% +72.1% 53% 13% -10.5%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover679.8 tr/day
realistic slip~15%
edge survives to20%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal +72.1% 13% -10.5%
10% +55.6% 11% -19.1%
15% ← realistic here +40.6% 11% -26.9%
20% +26.8% 11% -34.1%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 30% · top 2 43% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -1% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
75% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +90% · $-wt -1% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 80% (≥$1,844) strong on big bets
Persistence
early +88% → late +93% edge persists early→late
Add-ons / DCA
29.6 add-ons/market averages down — deposit killer
Win / loss size
+$60 vs −$102 · ×0.59 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.66 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $700 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

3d coverage
Net worth$1
Realized+$671
Unrealized−$5
Win rate (resolved)53%
Wins / losses20 / 18
Whale WR (big bets)80%
Est. fees paid−$1,599
Open positions1
Markets (closed)38 / 39
History coverage3d
Avg bet$1,673
Trades / day679.8
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit97%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 38 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Counter-Strike: 9z vs TheMongolz - Map 1 Winner TheMongolz 1¢ 0¢ $5 $0 −$5 (-95%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 14 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Counter-Strike: 9z vs TheMongolz - Map 2 Winner Jun 15 $5,056 −$440 -9%
Counter-Strike: 9z vs TheMongolz (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 Jun 15 $186 −$7 -4%
UFC Freedom 250: Derrick Lewis vs. Josh Hokit (Heavyweight, Main Card) Jun 15 $125 +$22 +18%
Sweden vs. Tunisia: 1st Half O/U 2.5 Jun 15 $689 −$110 -16%
Sweden vs. Tunisia: 1st Half O/U 1.5 Jun 15 $910 −$151 -17%
Côte d'Ivoire vs. Ecuador: O/U 0.5 Jun 15 $2,085 −$66 -3%
Will Côte d'Ivoire win on 2026-06-14? Jun 15 $218 $0 +0%
Côte d'Ivoire vs. Ecuador: O/U 1.5 Jun 15 $326 +$12 +4%
Côte d'Ivoire vs. Ecuador: 1st Half O/U 0.5 Jun 15 $3,877 −$14 -0%
Netherlands vs. Japan: O/U 3.5 Jun 14 $5,577 +$51 +1%
Netherlands vs. Japan: O/U 4.5 Jun 14 $1,274 +$36 +3%
Netherlands vs. Japan: 1st Half O/U 0.5 Jun 14 $3,267 +$149 +5%
Netherlands vs. Japan: O/U 2.5 Jun 14 $943 +$29 +3%
Netherlands vs. Japan: O/U 1.5 Jun 14 $546 −$200 -37%
Netherlands vs. Japan: O/U 0.5 Jun 14 $5 −$5 -100%
Counter-Strike: Natus Vincere vs Team Falcons (BO3) - IEM Cologne Majo Jun 14 $3,736 −$101 -3%
Counter-Strike: BetBoom Team vs Vitality - Map 2 Winner Jun 14 $1,498 −$26 -2%
Germany vs. Curaçao: O/U 8.5 Jun 14 $1,470 +$60 +4%
Germany vs. Curaçao: O/U 7.5 Jun 14 $2,458 +$34 +1%
Germany vs. Curaçao: O/U 6.5 Jun 14 $597 −$2 -0%
Germany vs. Curaçao: O/U 5.5 Jun 14 $1,208 +$57 +5%
Germany vs. Curaçao: O/U 4.5 Jun 14 $200 −$200 -100%
Germany vs. Curaçao: 1st Half O/U 2.5 Jun 14 $1,250 −$48 -4%
Germany vs. Curaçao: 1st Half O/U 1.5 Jun 14 $719 −$324 -45%
Germany vs. Curaçao: 1st Half O/U 0.5 Jun 14 $16 −$11 -70%
Counter-Strike: TheMongolz vs Monte (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 Jun 14 $6,037 +$368 +6%
Counter-Strike: BetBoom Team vs Vitality - Map 1 Winner Jun 14 $100 +$1 +1%
Haiti vs. Scotland: 1st Half O/U 1.5 Jun 14 $920 +$82 +9%
Haiti vs. Scotland: 1st Half O/U 0.5 Jun 14 $1,184 −$57 -5%
Counter-Strike: Team Falcons vs Monte (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage Jun 13 $4,672 +$47 +1%
Counter-Strike: Team Falcons vs Monte - Map 2 Winner Jun 13 $3,604 +$49 +1%
Counter-Strike: B8 vs FUT Esports (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 Jun 13 $1,363 −$23 -2%
Counter-Strike: RUSTEC vs HEROIC Academy (BO3) - CCT Europe Series #4 Jun 13 $750 −$51 -7%
Canada vs. Bosnia and Herzegovina: O/U 2.5 Jun 12 $1,844 +$68 +4%
Canada vs. Bosnia and Herzegovina: O/U 1.5 Jun 12 $2,769 +$6 +0%
Will Canada vs. Bosnia and Herzegovina end in a draw? Jun 12 $1 $0 +13%
Canada vs. Bosnia-Herzegovina: 1st Half O/U 1.5 Jun 12 $2,016 +$119 +6%
Canada vs. Bosnia-Herzegovina: 1st Half O/U 0.5 Jun 12 $507 +$16 +3%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Counter-Strike: 9z vs TheMongolz - Map 2 Winner SELL 9z 100¢ $10 46m
Counter-Strike: 9z vs TheMongolz - Map 2 Winner BUY 9z 99¢ $10 47m
Counter-Strike: 9z vs TheMongolz - Map 2 Winner SELL TheMongolz 1¢ $5 47m
Counter-Strike: 9z vs TheMongolz - Map 2 Winner SELL TheMongolz 3¢ $3 47m
Counter-Strike: 9z vs TheMongolz - Map 2 Winner SELL 9z 97¢ $63 49m
Counter-Strike: 9z vs TheMongolz - Map 2 Winner SELL 9z 98¢ $10 49m
Counter-Strike: 9z vs TheMongolz - Map 2 Winner SELL 9z 97¢ $10 49m
Counter-Strike: 9z vs TheMongolz - Map 2 Winner SELL 9z 97¢ $10 49m
Counter-Strike: 9z vs TheMongolz - Map 2 Winner SELL 9z 98¢ $10 50m
Counter-Strike: 9z vs TheMongolz - Map 2 Winner BUY 9z 97¢ $103 51m
Counter-Strike: 9z vs TheMongolz - Map 2 Winner SELL TheMongolz 4¢ $7 51m
Counter-Strike: 9z vs TheMongolz - Map 2 Winner SELL TheMongolz 4¢ $0 52m
Counter-Strike: 9z vs TheMongolz - Map 2 Winner SELL TheMongolz 4¢ $10 52m
Counter-Strike: 9z vs TheMongolz - Map 2 Winner SELL TheMongolz 4¢ $10 52m
Counter-Strike: 9z vs TheMongolz - Map 2 Winner SELL TheMongolz 4¢ $1 52m
Counter-Strike: 9z vs TheMongolz - Map 2 Winner SELL TheMongolz 4¢ $1 52m
Counter-Strike: 9z vs TheMongolz - Map 2 Winner SELL TheMongolz 4¢ $3 52m
Counter-Strike: 9z vs TheMongolz - Map 2 Winner SELL TheMongolz 4¢ $1 52m
Counter-Strike: 9z vs TheMongolz - Map 2 Winner SELL TheMongolz 4¢ $2 52m
Counter-Strike: 9z vs TheMongolz - Map 2 Winner SELL TheMongolz 4¢ $9 52m
Counter-Strike: 9z vs TheMongolz - Map 2 Winner SELL TheMongolz 4¢ $7 52m
Counter-Strike: 9z vs TheMongolz - Map 2 Winner SELL TheMongolz 4¢ $13 52m
Counter-Strike: 9z vs TheMongolz - Map 2 Winner BUY TheMongolz 9¢ $197 53m
Counter-Strike: 9z vs TheMongolz - Map 2 Winner SELL 9z 90¢ $280 54m
Counter-Strike: 9z vs TheMongolz - Map 2 Winner BUY 9z 86¢ $31 55m
Counter-Strike: 9z vs TheMongolz - Map 2 Winner BUY 9z 86¢ $31 55m
Counter-Strike: 9z vs TheMongolz - Map 2 Winner BUY 9z 86¢ $60 55m
Counter-Strike: 9z vs TheMongolz - Map 2 Winner BUY 9z 86¢ $31 55m
Counter-Strike: 9z vs TheMongolz - Map 2 Winner SELL 9z 81¢ $1 55m
Counter-Strike: 9z vs TheMongolz - Map 2 Winner SELL 9z 81¢ $81 55m
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.66 · official $0.25 (match) · 2124 history records