Wallet analysis

2026-06-15T18:09:35+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
FE 0xfe6f…4096 world 28 markets active 1h ago coverage 473d
TRAPdo not copy Fresh edge⚠ Small sample
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ profit hinges on one bet (luck, not edge)✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage
Total PnL −$1 (-0%) realized −$1 · open +$0
Gross ROI / mkt -3% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -12% what you keep after slip
Net edge-12%after slip
Net WR0%break-even
Win rate43%12W / 16L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$27per market
Trades / day0.2pace
Kalshi-fit71%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$3
7 days−$1
14 days−$2
30 days−$2
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
world 74% −$2
other 12% +$1
politics 8% $0
finance 6% $0
sports 0% $0
crypto 0% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +0%
net ROI/market (all)-12.4%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 9 -0.4% -9.9% 22% 0% -9.8%
≤30d 13 -0.0% -9.5% 23% 0% -9.8%
≤90d 13 -0.0% -9.5% 23% 0% -9.8%
all 28 -3.2% -12.4% 43% 0% -9.7%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.2 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -12.4% 0% -9.7%
10% -20.8% 0% -18.3%
15% -28.4% 0% -26.2%
20% -35.4% 0% -33.5%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 55% · top 2 65% profit hinges on 1 bet — luck, not edge
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -0% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
100% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -3% · $-wt -0% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -6% → late +0% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.5 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$0 vs −$1 · ×0.38 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.65 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

473d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized−$1
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)43%
Wins / losses12 / 16
Open positions0
Markets (closed)28 / 28
History coverage473d
Avg bet$27
Trades / day0.2
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit71%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 28 Trades
no open positions
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Israel withdraws from Lebanon by June 30, 2026? Jun 15 $48 $0 +0%
Will United Russia (ER) gain the most seats in the next Russian parlia Jun 14 $42 −$3 -7%
Will China invade Taiwan by end of 2026? Jun 14 $6 $0 +0%
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra Jun 13 $50 +$1 +3%
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31? Jun 13 $60 $0 +0%
US x Russia military clash by December 31, 2026? Jun 13 $38 $0 -0%
Iran agrees to surrender enriched uranium stockpile by July 31, 2026? Jun 10 $45 $0 +0%
US-Iran nuclear deal before 2027? Jun 10 $77 $0 +0%
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra Jun 08 $49 $0 +0%
Will Alberta join the US? Jun 07 $4 $0 +5%
Israel and Indonesia normalize relations by June 30, 2026? Jun 07 $1 $0 +0%
Ukraine agrees not to join NATO by June 30? Jun 06 $94 $0 -0%
US obtains Iranian enriched uranium by December 31? Jun 05 $75 −$1 -1%
Will Palmeiras win the FIFA Club World Cup? Dec 09 $2 $0 +3%
Will Lee Jun-seok win between 2% and 5% of the vote in the South Korea Jun 05 $1 $0 +3%
Will Solana reach $250 in May? Jun 03 $0 $0 -100%
Will a nuclear weapon detonate by June 30? May 17 $14 $0 +2%
Will the Arizona Diamondbacks win the 2025 World Series? Apr 06 $14 $0 -0%
Will Bayern Munich win the Bundesliga? Apr 04 $2 $0 +2%
Will Trump pardon Rudy Giuliani in his first 100 days? Apr 03 $13 $0 +0%
Will Călin Georgescu win the Romanian presidential election? Apr 02 $15 $0 +0%
Will PRO win the most seats in the Chamber of Deputies following the 2 Apr 01 $15 $0 -0%
Will Trump acquire Greenland before July? Apr 01 $14 $0 +0%
Will Albania win Eurovision 2025? Apr 01 $15 $0 +0%
Will Elon tweet 650 or more times March 21-28? Mar 25 $14 $0 +1%
Will the New Jersey Devils win the 2025 Stanley Cup? Mar 21 $14 $0 +0%
Ripple above $2.70 on February 28? Mar 20 $14 $0 +1%
Will Red Bull Racing record the fastest lap at 2025 F1 Winter Testing? Feb 27 $14 $0 +0%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Israel withdraws from Lebanon by June 30, 2026? SELL No 94¢ $48 1h
Israel withdraws from Lebanon by June 30, 2026? BUY No 94¢ $48 1h
Will United Russia (ER) gain the most seats in the next Russian parlia SELL No 39¢ $33 20h
Will United Russia (ER) gain the most seats in the next Russian parlia SELL No 39¢ $6 20h
Will United Russia (ER) gain the most seats in the next Russian parlia BUY No 42¢ $42 24h
Will China invade Taiwan by end of 2026? SELL Yes $3 38h
Will China invade Taiwan by end of 2026? SELL Yes $2 38h
Will China invade Taiwan by end of 2026? BUY Yes $3 40h
Will China invade Taiwan by end of 2026? BUY Yes $2 40h
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra SELL Yes 70¢ $51 2d
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra BUY Yes 68¢ $50 2d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31? SELL Yes 49¢ $9 2d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31? SELL Yes 49¢ $14 2d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31? BUY Yes 50¢ $23 2d
US x Russia military clash by December 31, 2026? SELL No 94¢ $38 2d
US x Russia military clash by December 31, 2026? BUY No 94¢ $38 2d
US x Russia military clash by December 31, 2026? BUY No 94¢ $1 2d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31? SELL No 56¢ $17 3d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31? SELL No 56¢ $14 3d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31? SELL No 56¢ $6 3d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31? BUY No 55¢ $2 3d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31? BUY No 55¢ $18 3d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31? BUY No 55¢ $16 3d
Iran agrees to surrender enriched uranium stockpile by July 31, 2026? SELL No 81¢ $45 4d
Iran agrees to surrender enriched uranium stockpile by July 31, 2026? BUY No 81¢ $45 5d
US-Iran nuclear deal before 2027? SELL No 33¢ $28 5d
US-Iran nuclear deal before 2027? BUY No 33¢ $16 5d
US-Iran nuclear deal before 2027? BUY No 33¢ $12 5d
US-Iran nuclear deal before 2027? SELL Yes 68¢ $16 6d
US-Iran nuclear deal before 2027? SELL Yes 68¢ $33 6d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 85 history records