Wallet analysis

2026-06-16T15:07:58+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
FE 0xfe6e…6666 other 248 markets active 1h ago coverage 134d
TRAPdo not copy ⚠ High turnover
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage! high turnover! concentrated profit (few bets)
Total PnL −$83 (-0%) realized −$83 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -0% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -17% what you keep after slip
Net edge-17%after slip
Net WR0%break-even
Win rate5%13W / 234L
Whale WR0%big bets
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$220per market
Trades / day10.0pace
Fees−$9est.
Kalshi-fit58%portable
Net worth$56now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$7
7 days−$18
14 days−$28
30 days−$37
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
other 50% −$47
sports 23% −$22
politics 10% −$9
culture 5% −$6
economics 5% −$3
crypto 5% −$4
world 2% −$2
tech 0% $0
finance 0% −$1
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +0%
net ROI/market (all)-9.7%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 31 -0.2% -9.7% 0% 0% -9.7%
≤30d 69 -0.2% -9.7% 0% 0% -9.7%
≤90d 174 -0.2% -9.7% 2% 0% -9.7%
all 247 -0.2% -9.7% 5% 0% -9.7%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover10.0 tr/day
realistic slip~9%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -9.7% 0% -9.7%
10% -18.3% 0% -18.3%
15% -26.2% 0% -26.2%
20% -33.4% 0% -33.4%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 37% · top 2 61% concentrated in a few bets
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -0% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
100% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -0% · $-wt -0% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 0% (≥$500) big bets weaker
Persistence
early -0% → late -0% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
2.5 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$0 vs −$0 · ×0.42 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.02 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

134d coverage
Net worth$56
Realized−$83
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)5%
Wins / losses13 / 234
Whale WR (big bets)0%
Est. fees paid−$9
Open positions1
Markets (closed)247 / 248
History coverage134d
Avg bet$220
Trades / day10.0
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit58%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 247 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Elon Musk buy Ryanair? No 100¢ 100¢ $56 $56 +$0 (+0%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will the Houston Texans win the 2027 NFL league championship? Jun 16 $161 $0 -0%
Will the Texas Rangers win the 2026 World Series? Jun 16 $234 −$1 -0%
Will the Tampa Bay Buccaneers win the 2027 NFL league championship? Jun 16 $206 $0 -0%
Will Julian Assange win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026? Jun 16 $193 $0 -0%
Will the Boston Red Sox win the 2026 World Series? Jun 15 $594 −$1 -0%
Will the Dallas Cowboys win the 2027 NFL league championship? Jun 15 $210 $0 -0%
Will Bitcoin reach $1,000,000 by December 31, 2026? Jun 15 $385 −$1 -0%
Will 6 Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? Jun 15 $474 −$1 -0%
Will Oscar Piastri be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Jun 15 $200 −$1 -0%
Will there be no head of state of Venezuela end of 2026? Jun 15 $136 $0 -0%
Will the San Diego Padres win the 2026 World Series? Jun 14 $150 $0 -0%
Will 5 Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? Jun 14 $125 $0 -0%
Will the Detroit Tigers win the 2026 World Series? Jun 14 $329 −$1 -0%
Will New York City FC win the 2026 MLS Cup? Jun 14 $307 $0 -0%
Will the Minnesota Vikings win the 2027 NFL league championship? Jun 14 $369 −$1 -0%
Will 4 Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? Jun 14 $58 $0 -0%
Will Orlando City SC win the 2026 MLS Cup? Jun 14 $302 −$1 -0%
Will Camilo Santana win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? Jun 13 $357 −$1 -0%
Will Ahmed al-Sharaa win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026? Jun 13 $131 $0 -0%
Will the Baltimore Orioles win the 2026 World Series? Jun 13 $721 −$1 -0%
Will USA win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 13 $358 −$1 -0%
Will Morocco win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 12 $800 −$1 -0%
Will the Chicago Cubs win the 2026 World Series? Jun 12 $182 $0 -0%
Will Real Salt Lake win the 2026 MLS Cup? Jun 12 $692 −$2 -0%
Will the New York Giants win the 2027 NFL league championship? Jun 12 $59 $0 -0%
Will the Green Bay Packers win the 2027 NFL league championship? Jun 11 $207 $0 -0%
Will Trump acquire Greenland before 2027? Jun 11 $197 $0 -0%
Will Scotland win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 11 $361 $0 -0%
Will the Pittsburgh Steelers win the 2027 NFL league championship? Jun 11 $279 −$1 -0%
Will Egypt win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 10 $130 $0 -0%
Will the New York Mets win the 2026 World Series? Jun 10 $544 −$1 -0%
Will the Chicago Bears win the 2027 NFL league championship? Jun 09 $55 $0 -0%
Will 12 or more Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? Jun 09 $503 $0 -0%
Will Michelle Bolsonaro win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? Jun 09 $204 $0 -0%
Will Diosdado Cabello Rondón be the leader of Venezuela end of 2026? Jun 08 $174 $0 -0%
Will Mexico win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 08 $348 $0 -0%
Will Uruguay win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 07 $565 −$1 -0%
Will the Cincinnati Reds win the 2026 World Series? Jun 07 $62 $0 -0%
Will New York Red Bulls win the 2026 MLS Cup? Jun 07 $231 $0 -0%
Will the Pittsburgh Pirates win the 2026 World Series? Jun 07 $380 −$1 -0%
Will Recep Tayyip Erdoğan win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026? Jun 07 $305 −$1 -0%
Will Edmundo González be the leader of Venezuela end of 2026? Jun 06 $317 −$1 -0%
Will Belgium win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 06 $309 −$1 -0%
Will Eduardo Bolsonaro win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? Jun 06 $702 −$1 -0%
Will the Washington Commanders win the 2027 NFL league championship? Jun 06 $209 $0 -0%
Will Japan win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 05 $295 $0 -0%
Will South Korea win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 05 $608 −$1 -0%
Will Switzerland win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 04 $293 $0 -0%
Will Katie Porter win the California Governor Election in 2026? Jun 04 $483 −$1 -0%
Will the Indianapolis Colts win the 2027 NFL league championship? Jun 03 $446 −$1 -0%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Elon Musk buy Ryanair? BUY No 100¢ $56 1h
Will the Houston Texans win the 2027 NFL league championship? SELL No 97¢ $10 2h
Will the Houston Texans win the 2027 NFL league championship? BUY No 97¢ $10 3h
Will the Texas Rangers win the 2026 World Series? SELL No 98¢ $56 6h
Will the Texas Rangers win the 2026 World Series? BUY No 98¢ $56 7h
Will the Tampa Bay Buccaneers win the 2027 NFL league championship? SELL No 99¢ $56 9h
Will the Tampa Bay Buccaneers win the 2027 NFL league championship? BUY No 99¢ $56 11h
Will Julian Assange win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026? SELL No 99¢ $56 12h
Will Julian Assange win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026? BUY No 99¢ $56 14h
Will the Boston Red Sox win the 2026 World Series? SELL No 99¢ $56 15h
Will the Boston Red Sox win the 2026 World Series? BUY No 99¢ $56 17h
Will the Dallas Cowboys win the 2027 NFL league championship? SELL No 97¢ $56 21h
Will the Dallas Cowboys win the 2027 NFL league championship? BUY No 97¢ $56 23h
Will Bitcoin reach $1,000,000 by December 31, 2026? SELL No 98¢ $56 27h
Will Bitcoin reach $1,000,000 by December 31, 2026? BUY No 99¢ $56 28h
Will 6 Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? SELL No 100¢ $56 30h
Will 6 Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? BUY No 100¢ $56 32h
Will Oscar Piastri be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? SELL No 99¢ $56 33h
Will Oscar Piastri be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? BUY No 99¢ $57 34h
Will there be no head of state of Venezuela end of 2026? SELL No 99¢ $57 36h
Will there be no head of state of Venezuela end of 2026? BUY No 100¢ $57 37h
Will the San Diego Padres win the 2026 World Series? SELL No 98¢ $57 40h
Will the San Diego Padres win the 2026 World Series? BUY No 98¢ $57 42h
Will 5 Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? SELL No 100¢ $57 42h
Will 5 Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? BUY No 100¢ $57 43h
Will the Detroit Tigers win the 2026 World Series? SELL No 99¢ $57 45h
Will the Detroit Tigers win the 2026 World Series? BUY No 99¢ $57 46h
Will New York City FC win the 2026 MLS Cup? SELL No 97¢ $57 2d
Will New York City FC win the 2026 MLS Cup? BUY No 98¢ $57 2d
Will the Texas Rangers win the 2026 World Series? SELL No 98¢ $57 2d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $55.70 · official $55.70 (match) · 1393 history records