Wallet analysis

2026-06-18T08:48:13+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
FE 0xfe6d…0f30 other 136 markets active 1h ago coverage 101d
TRAPdo not copy
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage
Total PnL −$36 (-0%) realized −$36 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -0% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -13% what you keep after slip
Net edge-13%after slip
Net WR0%break-even
Win rate15%20W / 116L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$109per market
Trades / day4.5pace
Fees−$2est.
Kalshi-fit73%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$1
7 days−$1
14 days−$1
30 days−$7
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
politics 30% −$16
other 28% −$14
sports 15% −$10
crypto 8% +$2
economics 6% −$3
finance 6% −$6
culture 3% −$2
world 2% −$3
tech 1% −$1
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +0%
net ROI/market (all)-9.9%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 1 -2.0% -11.3% 0% 0% -11.3%
≤30d 7 -1.0% -10.4% 0% 0% -10.2%
≤90d 122 -0.4% -9.9% 14% 0% -9.8%
all 136 -0.4% -9.9% 15% 0% -9.8%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover4.5 tr/day
realistic slip~7%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -9.9% 0% -9.8%
10% -18.5% 0% -18.5%
15% -26.4% 0% -26.3%
20% -33.6% 0% -33.6%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 29% · top 2 51% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -0% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
100% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -0% · $-wt -0% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -0% → late -1% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.8 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$0 vs −$1 · ×0.89 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.16 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

101d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized−$36
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)15%
Wins / losses20 / 116
Est. fees paid−$2
Open positions0
Markets (closed)136 / 136
History coverage101d
Avg bet$109
Trades / day4.5
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit73%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 136 Trades
no open positions
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Bitcoin dip to $20,000 by December 31, 2026? Jun 18 $76 −$1 -2%
Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (HIGH) $140 by end of June? Jun 04 $67 $0 -0%
Will Arthur Fils win the 2026 Men's French Open? May 20 $63 $0 -0%
Will Steve Hilton win the California Governor Election in 2026? May 20 $157 −$2 -1%
Will Josh Shapiro win the 2028 US Presidential Election? May 20 $347 −$1 -0%
Hantavirus pandemic in 2026? May 19 $121 −$1 -1%
Will 2 Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? May 19 $50 −$1 -2%
Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the June 2026 meet May 19 $60 $0 -0%
Will María Corina Machado be the leader of Venezuela end of 2026? May 18 $60 $0 -1%
Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (LOW) $52 by end of June? May 18 $47 $0 -1%
Will Ron DeSantis win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? May 18 $373 −$1 -0%
Will Brazil win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? May 18 $155 −$1 -0%
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $140 in May? May 17 $53 $0 -1%
Will Donald Trump Jr. win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? May 17 $105 $0 -0%
Will Donald Trump win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? May 17 $52 $0 -0%
Will Jon Ossoff win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? May 17 $237 −$1 -0%
Will Oscar Piastri be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? May 16 $159 −$1 -0%
Will Romeu Zema win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? May 16 $130 −$1 -0%
Will the Detroit Tigers win the 2026 World Series? May 16 $106 $0 -0%
Will Norway win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? May 15 $62 $0 -0%
Will Kamala Harris win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? May 14 $89 −$1 -1%
Will the Detroit Lions win the 2027 NFL league championship? May 14 $100 $0 -0%
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $130 in May? May 14 $51 −$2 -3%
Will the Tampa Bay Rays win the 2026 World Series? May 14 $42 $0 -1%
Will Rafael Jodar win the 2026 Men's French Open? May 13 $54 −$2 -3%
Will the Cleveland Guardians win the 2026 World Series? May 13 $50 $0 -0%
Will Max Verstappen be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? May 13 $152 −$1 -0%
Will Ron DeSantis win the 2028 US Presidential Election? May 13 $41 $0 +1%
Will Gabriel Attal win the 2027 French presidential election? May 12 $155 $0 -0%
Will Bitcoin reach $95,000 in May? May 12 $55 $0 +0%
Will Alexander Zverev win the 2026 Men's French Open? May 12 $52 $0 -1%
Will the Milwaukee Brewers win the 2026 World Series? May 11 $51 $0 -0%
Will Oh Se-hoon win the 2026 Seoul Mayoral Election May 11 $51 −$1 -3%
Will Mark Kelly win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? May 11 $37 $0 -0%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 13, 2026? May 10 $45 −$1 -3%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 11, 2026? May 10 $44 $0 +0%
Will Fernando Haddad win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? May 10 $215 −$1 -0%
Will Chong Won-oh win the 2026 Seoul Mayoral Election May 09 $63 −$1 -2%
Will Romania win Eurovision 2026? May 09 $54 $0 -1%
Will Bitcoin dip to $60,000 in May? May 08 $50 $0 -1%
Will the Fed decrease interest rates by 25 bps after the June 2026 mee May 08 $101 $0 -0%
Will Sweden win Eurovision 2026? May 08 $48 $0 -0%
Will Camilo Santana win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? May 07 $48 $0 -0%
Will Bitcoin reach $100,000 in May? May 07 $123 $0 -0%
Will OpenAI have the best AI model at the end of May 2026? May 07 $162 −$1 -0%
Will Renan Santos win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? May 07 $195 −$1 -0%
Will Rafael López Aliaga win the 2026 Peruvian presidential election? May 06 $264 −$1 -0%
Will Mohammad-Bagher Ghalibaf be head of state in Iran end of 2026? May 06 $53 $0 +0%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 15, 2026? May 06 $52 −$1 -2%
Will France win Eurovision 2026? May 05 $47 $0 -1%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Bitcoin dip to $20,000 by December 31, 2026? SELL No 93¢ $75 1h
Will Bitcoin dip to $20,000 by December 31, 2026? BUY No 94¢ $76 8h
Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (HIGH) $140 by end of June? SELL No 96¢ $67 14d
Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (HIGH) $140 by end of June? BUY No 96¢ $67 14d
Will Arthur Fils win the 2026 Men's French Open? SELL No 97¢ $63 28d
Will Arthur Fils win the 2026 Men's French Open? BUY No 97¢ $63 28d
Will Steve Hilton win the California Governor Election in 2026? SELL No 91¢ $65 28d
Will Steve Hilton win the California Governor Election in 2026? BUY No 92¢ $12 29d
Will Steve Hilton win the California Governor Election in 2026? BUY No 92¢ $54 29d
Will Josh Shapiro win the 2028 US Presidential Election? SELL No 97¢ $65 29d
Will Josh Shapiro win the 2028 US Presidential Election? BUY No 97¢ $65 29d
Hantavirus pandemic in 2026? SELL No 94¢ $65 29d
Hantavirus pandemic in 2026? BUY No 93¢ $65 29d
Will 2 Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? SELL No 92¢ $50 29d
Will 2 Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? BUY No 93¢ $50 30d
Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the June 2026 meet SELL Yes 98¢ $59 30d
Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the June 2026 meet BUY Yes 98¢ $60 30d
Will María Corina Machado be the leader of Venezuela end of 2026? SELL No 93¢ $60 30d
Will María Corina Machado be the leader of Venezuela end of 2026? BUY No 93¢ $60 30d
Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (LOW) $52 by end of June? SELL No 98¢ $47 30d
Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (LOW) $52 by end of June? BUY No 98¢ $47 30d
Will Ron DeSantis win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? SELL No 96¢ $54 31d
Will Ron DeSantis win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? BUY No 96¢ $54 31d
Will Brazil win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL No 91¢ $45 31d
Will Brazil win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 91¢ $45 31d
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $140 in May? SELL No 96¢ $53 31d
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $140 in May? BUY No 96¢ $53 31d
Will Donald Trump Jr. win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? SELL No 97¢ $58 31d
Will Donald Trump Jr. win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? BUY No 97¢ $59 31d
Will Donald Trump win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? SELL No 98¢ $52 31d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 478 history records