Wallet analysis

2026-06-15T01:26:09+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

4.5
score
FE 0xfe6b…e911 sports 28 markets active 1h ago coverage 2d
RISKYcopy with care sports specialistFresh edge⚠ High turnover⚠ Small sample
Total PnL +$258 (+22%) realized +$291 · open −$199
Gross ROI / mkt +40% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt +8% what you keep after slip
Net edge+8%after slip
Net WR74%break-even
Win rate78%18W / 5L
Drawdown12%max
Avg bet$42per market
Trades / day38.3pace
Fees−$17est.
Kalshi-fit86%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 2d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 87% +$83
crypto 10% −$7
other 3% +$16
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
borderline — thin edge, slippage-sensitive
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +74%
net ROI/market (all)+26.5%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 23 +39.8% +26.5% 78% 74% +25.5%
≤30d 23 +39.8% +26.5% 78% 74% +25.5%
≤90d 23 +39.8% +26.5% 78% 74% +25.5%
all 23 +39.8% +26.5% 78% 74% +25.5%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover38.3 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to15%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal +26.5% 74% +25.5%
10% ← realistic here +14.4% 74% +13.5%
15% +3.4% 61% +2.5%
20% -6.8% 52% -7.5%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 12% · top 2 23% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +38% fresh edge ✓
Fragile wins
6% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +40% · $-wt +38% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +38% → late +42% edge persists early→late
Add-ons / DCA
1.4 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$20 vs −$14 · ×1.44 wins ≈ losses
Profit factor
×5.18 per $1 lost it wins $5.18
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

2d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized+$291
Unrealized−$199
Win rate (resolved)78%
Wins / losses18 / 5
Est. fees paid−$17
Open positions3
Markets (closed)23 / 28
History coverage2d
Avg bet$42
Trades / day38.3
Drawdown12%
Kalshi-fit86%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 3 History 23 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Call of Duty: Riyadh Falcons vs Carolina Royal Ravens (BO5) - Call of Duty League Stage 4 Major Qualifiers Qualifier Carolina Royal Ravens 46¢ $119 $0 −$118 (-100%)
Overwatch: Team Liquid vs LuneX Gaming (BO3) - OCS North America Stage 2 Group Stage LuneX Gaming 13¢ $14 $0 −$14 (-100%)
Counter-Strike: Marsborne vs Iowa Stormboar - Map 2 Winner Iowa Stormboar 79¢ $66 $0 −$66 (-100%)
Counter-Strike: fnatic vs Alliance (BO3) - ROG Journey Playoffs fnatic 26¢ $33 $0 −$33 (-100%)
Netherlands vs. Japan: Netherlands O/U 2.5 Over 42¢ $9 $0 −$9 (-100%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
LoL: LYON vs Team Liquid - Game 3 Winner Jun 14 $76 +$28 +38%
Counter-Strike: Marsborne vs Iowa Stormboar - Map 1 Winner Jun 14 $50 +$12 +24%
Exact Score: Netherlands 2 - 2 Japan? Jun 14 $101 +$10 +10%
Netherlands vs. Japan: Netherlands O/U 2.5 Jun 14 $20 −$18 -91%
Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-14? Jun 14 $20 −$17 -82%
Netherlands vs. Japan: O/U 3.5 Jun 14 $41 +$28 +68%
Netherlands vs. Japan: Netherlands O/U 1.5 Jun 14 $20 +$19 +91%
Netherlands vs. Japan: Both Teams to Score Jun 14 $32 +$13 +40%
Netherlands to score first vs. Japan? Jun 14 $20 +$18 +88%
Counter-Strike: Natus Vincere vs Team Falcons (BO3) - IEM Cologne Majo Jun 14 $76 +$45 +59%
Valorant: G2 Esports vs FUT Esports - Map 2 Winner Jun 14 $19 +$39 +206%
Valorant: G2 Esports vs FUT Esports (BO3) - VCT Masters London Playoff Jun 14 $57 +$34 +59%
Valorant: G2 Esports vs FUT Esports - Map 1 Winner Jun 14 $36 +$22 +61%
Counter-Strike: ex-RUBY vs INOX Division (BO3) - CCT Europe Series #4 Jun 14 $18 +$13 +71%
Counter-Strike: fnatic vs Alliance (BO3) - ROG Journey Playoffs Jun 14 $34 −$33 -98%
Counter-Strike: Aurora Gaming vs 9z (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 Jun 14 $20 +$17 +84%
Valorant: Leviatán Esports vs Team Heretics (BO3) - VCT Masters London Jun 14 $20 +$12 +58%
Counter-Strike: Aurora Gaming vs 9z - Map 1 Winner Jun 14 $17 +$20 +116%
Counter-Strike: TheMongolz vs Monte (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 Jun 14 $29 +$9 +31%
Germany vs. Curaçao: O/U 3.5 Jun 14 $16 −$1 -4%
Will France win on 2026-06-16? Jun 14 $14 $0 -4%
Will Australia win on 2026-06-14? Jun 14 $20 +$16 +79%
Will the New York Knicks win the 2026 NBA Finals? Jun 14 $28 +$6 +22%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Overwatch: Team Liquid vs LuneX Gaming (BO3) - OCS North America Stage BUY LuneX Gaming 13¢ $15 1h
Overwatch: Team Liquid vs LuneX Gaming (BO3) - OCS North America Stage SELL LuneX Gaming $14 1h
Overwatch: Team Liquid vs LuneX Gaming (BO3) - OCS North America Stage BUY LuneX Gaming 45¢ $18 1h
Overwatch: Team Liquid vs LuneX Gaming (BO3) - OCS North America Stage BUY LuneX Gaming 33¢ $83 1h
Overwatch: Team Liquid vs LuneX Gaming (BO3) - OCS North America Stage SELL Team Liquid 70¢ $18 1h
Overwatch: Team Liquid vs LuneX Gaming (BO3) - OCS North America Stage SELL Team Liquid 70¢ $84 1h
Overwatch: Team Liquid vs LuneX Gaming (BO3) - OCS North America Stage BUY Team Liquid 68¢ $100 1h
Counter-Strike: Marsborne vs Iowa Stormboar - Map 2 Winner BUY Iowa Stormboar 70¢ $17 2h
Counter-Strike: Marsborne vs Iowa Stormboar - Map 2 Winner BUY Iowa Stormboar 82¢ $50 2h
LoL: LYON vs Team Liquid - Game 3 Winner SELL LYON 100¢ $104 2h
Counter-Strike: Marsborne vs Iowa Stormboar - Map 1 Winner SELL Marsborne 99¢ $63 2h
Call of Duty: Riyadh Falcons vs Carolina Royal Ravens (BO5) - Call of BUY Carolina Royal Ravens 42¢ $49 2h
LoL: LYON vs Team Liquid - Game 3 Winner BUY LYON 69¢ $25 2h
LoL: LYON vs Team Liquid - Game 3 Winner BUY LYON 74¢ $50 2h
Counter-Strike: Marsborne vs Iowa Stormboar - Map 1 Winner BUY Marsborne 79¢ $50 3h
Call of Duty: Riyadh Falcons vs Carolina Royal Ravens (BO5) - Call of BUY Carolina Royal Ravens 48¢ $51 3h
Call of Duty: Riyadh Falcons vs Carolina Royal Ravens (BO5) - Call of BUY Carolina Royal Ravens 51¢ $20 3h
Exact Score: Netherlands 2 - 2 Japan? SELL Yes 91¢ $111 3h
Netherlands vs. Japan: Netherlands O/U 2.5 SELL Over $1 3h
Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-14? SELL Yes $4 3h
Exact Score: Netherlands 2 - 2 Japan? BUY Yes 82¢ $101 3h
Netherlands vs. Japan: O/U 3.5 SELL Over 99¢ $68 3h
Netherlands vs. Japan: O/U 3.5 BUY Over 58¢ $41 4h
Netherlands vs. Japan: Netherlands O/U 2.5 BUY Over 42¢ $20 4h
Netherlands vs. Japan: Netherlands O/U 1.5 SELL Over 99¢ $39 4h
Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-14? BUY Yes 38¢ $20 4h
Netherlands vs. Japan: Both Teams to Score SELL Yes 99¢ $26 4h
Netherlands vs. Japan: Netherlands O/U 1.5 BUY Over 51¢ $20 4h
Netherlands vs. Japan: Both Teams to Score BUY Yes 45¢ $12 4h
Netherlands to score first vs. Japan? SELL Yes 99¢ $38 4h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.23 · official $0.28 (match) · 67 history records