Wallet analysis

2026-06-17T21:43:51+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
FE 0xfe6a…4d84 crypto 544 markets active 1d ago coverage 25d
TRAPdo not copy crypto specialist⚠ High turnover
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died! high turnover
Total PnL −$513 (-6%) realized −$513 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -3% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -25% what you keep after slip
Net edge-25%after slip
Net WR69%break-even
Win rate70%382W / 162L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$17per market
Trades / day21.7pace
Kalshi-fit100%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$10
7 days+$7
14 days−$72
30 days−$621
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 100% −$621
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +69%
net ROI/market (all)-12.4%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 111 +1.2% -8.4% 65% 65% -9.1%
≤30d 544 -3.1% -12.4% 70% 69% -15.8%
≤90d 544 -3.1% -12.4% 70% 69% -15.8%
all 544 -3.1% -12.4% 70% 69% -15.8%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover21.7 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -12.4% 69% -15.8%
10% ← realistic here -20.8% 52% -23.9%
15% -28.4% 31% -31.2%
20% -35.4% 13% -38.0%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 2% · top 2 5% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -7% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
1% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -3% · $-wt -7% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -2% → late -4% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.0 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$5 vs −$17 · ×0.33 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.77 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

25d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized−$513
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)70%
Wins / losses382 / 162
Open positions0
Markets (closed)544 / 544
History coverage25d
Avg bet$17
Trades / day21.7
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit100%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 544 Trades
no open positions (157 resolved losses — in realized PnL)
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Ethereum Up or Down - June 16, 10:45AM-11:00AM ET Jun 16 $10 −$10 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 12:55AM-1:00AM ET Jun 16 $10 −$10 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 10:00PM-10:05PM ET Jun 16 $10 −$10 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 9:50PM-9:55PM ET Jun 16 $10 −$10 -95%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 15, 7:05PM-7:10PM ET Jun 15 $23 +$13 +56%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 15, 6:35PM-6:40PM ET Jun 15 $16 +$17 +110%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 4:00PM-4:05PM ET Jun 15 $10 +$14 +137%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 15, 3:50PM-3:55PM ET Jun 15 $23 +$12 +51%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 15, 12:00PM-12:15PM ET Jun 15 $15 +$10 +66%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 12:05PM-12:10PM ET Jun 15 $10 +$5 +52%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 15, 10:40AM-10:45AM ET Jun 15 $16 −$15 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 3:40AM-3:45AM ET Jun 15 $10 +$6 +62%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 12:50AM-12:55AM ET Jun 15 $16 −$15 -95%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 15, 12:40AM-12:45AM ET Jun 15 $10 +$8 +73%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 9:40PM-9:45PM ET Jun 15 $23 −$22 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 6:00PM-6:05PM ET Jun 14 $15 +$6 +40%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 5:50PM-5:55PM ET Jun 14 $10 +$3 +33%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 4:40PM-4:45PM ET Jun 14 $10 −$10 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 10:05PM-10:10PM ET Jun 14 $10 −$10 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 9:45PM-10:00PM ET Jun 14 $10 −$10 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 9:35PM-9:40PM ET Jun 14 $10 −$10 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 8:25PM-8:30PM ET Jun 14 $16 −$15 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 7:55PM-8:00PM ET Jun 14 $10 +$8 +74%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 7:35PM-7:40PM ET Jun 13 $10 −$10 -98%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 7:10PM-7:15PM ET Jun 13 $23 +$12 +50%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 6:20PM-6:25PM ET Jun 13 $15 +$9 +57%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 5:15PM-5:20PM ET Jun 13 $10 +$10 +97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 4:05PM-4:10PM ET Jun 13 $11 −$10 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 3:25PM-3:30PM ET Jun 13 $23 +$13 +55%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 13, 12:45PM-12:50PM ET Jun 13 $16 +$15 +96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 12:15PM-12:20PM ET Jun 13 $10 +$3 +33%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 11:55AM-12:00PM ET Jun 13 $23 +$21 +90%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 11:30AM-11:35AM ET Jun 13 $15 +$5 +34%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 9:15AM-9:20AM ET Jun 13 $10 +$3 +33%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 8:25AM-8:30AM ET Jun 13 $10 +$7 +68%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 8:20AM-8:25AM ET Jun 13 $15 +$8 +52%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 7:50AM-7:55AM ET Jun 13 $10 +$7 +65%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 7:35AM-7:40AM ET Jun 13 $15 −$15 -98%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 7:20AM-7:25AM ET Jun 13 $10 +$6 +55%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 6:25AM-6:30AM ET Jun 13 $23 −$22 -98%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 5:35AM-5:40AM ET Jun 13 $15 +$9 +60%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 5:25AM-5:30AM ET Jun 13 $10 +$8 +73%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 5:20AM-5:25AM ET Jun 13 $16 −$15 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 4:45AM-4:50AM ET Jun 13 $10 +$4 +34%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 3:55AM-4:00AM ET Jun 13 $10 −$10 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 3:40AM-3:45AM ET Jun 13 $10 −$10 -98%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 3:15AM-3:20AM ET Jun 13 $23 −$22 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 8:55PM-9:00PM ET Jun 13 $16 +$33 +210%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 8:20PM-8:25PM ET Jun 13 $10 +$4 +36%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 7:30PM-7:35PM ET Jun 12 $15 −$15 -98%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Ethereum Up or Down - June 16, 10:45AM-11:00AM ET BUY Down 44¢ $10 30h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 12:55AM-1:00AM ET BUY Up 37¢ $10 40h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 10:00PM-10:05PM ET BUY Up 29¢ $10 43h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 9:50PM-9:55PM ET BUY Down 29¢ $10 43h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 15, 7:05PM-7:10PM ET BUY Down 63¢ $23 46h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 15, 6:35PM-6:40PM ET BUY Up 46¢ $16 47h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 4:00PM-4:05PM ET BUY Down 41¢ $10 2d
Ethereum Up or Down - June 15, 3:50PM-3:55PM ET BUY Down 65¢ $23 2d
Ethereum Up or Down - June 15, 12:00PM-12:15PM ET BUY Down 59¢ $15 2d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 12:05PM-12:10PM ET BUY Up 64¢ $10 2d
Ethereum Up or Down - June 15, 10:40AM-10:45AM ET BUY Up 44¢ $16 2d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 3:40AM-3:45AM ET BUY Down 60¢ $10 2d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 12:50AM-12:55AM ET BUY Up 28¢ $16 2d
Ethereum Up or Down - June 15, 12:40AM-12:45AM ET BUY Down 56¢ $10 2d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 9:40PM-9:45PM ET BUY Down 55¢ $23 2d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 6:00PM-6:05PM ET BUY Down 70¢ $15 2d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 5:50PM-5:55PM ET BUY Up 74¢ $10 2d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 4:40PM-4:45PM ET BUY Up 55¢ $10 3d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 10:05PM-10:10PM ET BUY Up 32¢ $10 3d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 9:45PM-10:00PM ET BUY Up 59¢ $10 3d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 9:35PM-9:40PM ET BUY Up 54¢ $10 3d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 8:25PM-8:30PM ET BUY Up 27¢ $16 3d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 7:55PM-8:00PM ET BUY Up 56¢ $10 3d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 7:35PM-7:40PM ET BUY Up 69¢ $10 3d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 7:10PM-7:15PM ET BUY Up 65¢ $23 3d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 6:20PM-6:25PM ET BUY Up 62¢ $15 3d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 5:15PM-5:20PM ET BUY Up 49¢ $10 4d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 4:05PM-4:10PM ET BUY Down 15¢ $11 4d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 3:25PM-3:30PM ET BUY Down 63¢ $23 4d
Ethereum Up or Down - June 13, 12:45PM-12:50PM ET BUY Down 49¢ $16 4d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 943 history records