Wallet analysis

2026-06-14T01:08:49+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

FE
0xfe61…e9c2
weather · 1545 markets active 0h ago
0.0score
−$1,134 -5%
TOTAL PnL · realized −$1,116 · open −$17
avoidriskycopy
✗ TRAP ⚠ High turnover
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Net worth$2,292
Realized−$1,116
Unrealized−$17
Win rate (resolved)57%
Wins / losses823 / 621
Est. fees paid−$4
Open positions217
Markets (closed)1444 / 1545
History coverage37d
Avg bet$14
Trades / day71.2
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit92%
Chart Positions 217 History 1444 Categories Trades Net edge Slippage
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$274
7 days−$295
14 days−$593
30 days−$874
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the June 2026 meeting? Yes 98¢ 99¢ $27 $28 +$0 (+1%)
Will Satoshi move any Bitcoin in 2026? No 93¢ 93¢ $21 $21 −$0 (-0%)
Will Ethereum dip to $800 by December 31, 2026? No 80¢ 84¢ $18 $19 +$1 (+4%)
Will the price of XRP be between $1.00 and $1.10 on June 14? No 85¢ 99¢ $15 $18 +$3 (+17%)
Will Ethereum reach $2,400 in June? No 99¢ 99¢ $18 $18 +$0 (+0%)
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $74,000 on June 19? No 98¢ 99¢ $17 $18 +$0 (+0%)
Will Ethereum reach $1,750 on June 13? No 99¢ 99¢ $18 $18 +$0 (+0%)
Will Ethereum dip to $1,650 on June 13? No 95¢ 97¢ $17 $17 +$0 (+2%)
Will Bitcoin reach $80,000 in June? No 98¢ 98¢ $17 $17 +$0 (+0%)
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $70,000 on June 18? No 97¢ 97¢ $17 $17 −$0 (-0%)
Will the price of XRP be between $1.20 and $1.30 on June 14? No 96¢ 99¢ $17 $17 +$1 (+3%)
Will the price of XRP be above $1.00 on June 19? Yes 95¢ 96¢ $17 $17 +$0 (+1%)
Will Bitcoin dip to $62,000 on June 13? No 99¢ 100¢ $17 $17 +$0 (+1%)
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $72,000 on June 16? No 99¢ 99¢ $17 $17 +$0 (+0%)
Will the price of Bitcoin be between $66,000 and $68,000 on June 14? No 99¢ 96¢ $18 $17 −$0 (-3%)
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $58,000 on June 19? Yes 98¢ 97¢ $17 $17 −$0 (-1%)
Will Bitcoin dip to $63,000 on June 13? No 77¢ 99¢ $13 $17 +$4 (+28%)
Will the price of XRP be between $1.20 and $1.30 on June 15? No 92¢ 94¢ $17 $17 +$0 (+3%)
Will the price of Ethereum be above $1,600 on June 15? Yes 93¢ 95¢ $16 $17 +$0 (+2%)
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $58,000 on June 18? Yes 94¢ 98¢ $16 $17 +$1 (+4%)
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $60,000 on June 19? Yes 91¢ 94¢ $16 $17 +$0 (+3%)
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $68,000 on June 16? No 98¢ 96¢ $17 $17 −$0 (-2%)
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $70,000 on June 19? No 96¢ 96¢ $17 $17 −$0 (-1%)
Will the price of XRP be between $1.00 and $1.10 on June 15? No 93¢ 92¢ $17 $17 −$0 (-1%)
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $70,000 on June 15? No 99¢ 100¢ $16 $16 +$0 (+1%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will the price of Bitcoin be between $76,000 and $78,000 on April 30? Jun 14 $5 −$5 -100%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $82,000 on May 6? Jun 14 $10 −$10 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Tokyo be 26°C on May 8? Jun 14 $14 −$14 -100%
Will Bitcoin reach $82,000 on May 5? Jun 14 $1 −$1 -100%
Will the price of Bitcoin be between $76,000 and $78,000 on May 6? Jun 14 $3 −$3 -100%
Will the price of Bitcoin be between $76,000 and $78,000 on April 28? Jun 14 $8 −$8 -100%
Will Lando Norris win the Sprint at the 2026 F1 Miami Grand Prix? Jun 14 $4 −$4 -100%
Will the next Prime Minister of Hungary be Péter Magyar? Jun 14 $2 −$2 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Jakarta be 35°C on April 28? Jun 14 $13 −$13 -100%
Will MegaETH launch a token by May 31, 2026? Jun 14 $2 −$2 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Kuala Lumpur be 33°C on May 6? Jun 14 $13 −$13 -100%
Will Bitcoin reach $84,000 on May 6? Jun 14 $3 −$3 -100%
Will the next Prime Minister of Hungary be Viktor Orbán? Jun 14 $3 −$3 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Toronto be 12°C on May 8? Jun 14 $14 −$14 -100%
Will Bitcoin reach $80,000 in April? Jun 14 $5 −$5 -100%
Israel x Hezbollah Ceasefire extended by April 26, 2026? Jun 14 $4 −$4 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Toronto be 13°C on April 29? Jun 14 $6 −$6 -100%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $80,000 on May 7? Jun 14 $9 −$9 -100%
Will Bitcoin reach $85,000 in May? Jun 14 $10 −$10 -100%
Will Bitcoin reach $82,000 May 4-10? Jun 14 $8 −$8 -100%
Will Bitcoin dip to $75,000 on April 29? Jun 14 $10 −$10 -100%
Ruben Rocha out as Governor of Sinaloa by May 31? Jun 14 $13 −$13 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Paris be 21°C on May 3? Jun 14 $6 −$6 -100%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $76,000 on May 3? Jun 14 $5 −$5 -100%
Will Bitcoin reach $80,000 in May? Jun 14 $4 −$4 -100%
Will Tamilaga Vettri Kazhagam (TVK) win the most seats in the 2026 Tam Jun 14 $6 −$6 -100%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $78,000 on May 2? Jun 14 $15 −$15 -100%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $78,000 on May 8? Jun 14 $10 −$10 -100%
Will Bitcoin dip to $77,000 on May 3? Jun 14 $0 $0 -100%
Will Bitcoin dip to $80,000 on May 6? Jun 14 $3 −$3 -100%
Will the All India Anna Dravida Munnetra Kazhagam (ADMK) win the most Jun 14 $1 −$1 -100%
Will the Bharatiya Janata Party (BJP) win the most seats in the 2026 W Jun 14 $7 −$7 -100%
Will there be 8 or more earthquakes of magnitude 7.0 or higher worldwi Jun 14 $2 −$2 -100%
Will MegaETH launch a token by June 30, 2026? Jun 14 $1 −$1 -100%
Will the price of Bitcoin be between $76,000 and $78,000 on May 1? Jun 14 $21 −$21 -100%
Will Bitcoin dip to $78,000 on May 2? Jun 14 $1 −$1 -100%
Will FC Bayern München win on 2026-04-28? Jun 14 $2 −$2 -100%
Will the price of Bitcoin be between $76,000 and $78,000 on May 3? Jun 14 $14 −$14 -100%
Billions FDV above $100M one day after launch? Jun 14 $4 −$4 -100%
Will Bitcoin dip to $76,000 April 27-May 3? Jun 14 $9 −$9 -100%
Will Thomas Massie be the Republican nominee for KY-04? Jun 14 $7 −$7 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Helsinki be 21°C on May 2? Jun 14 $11 −$11 -100%
Billions FDV above $200M one day after launch? Jun 14 $8 −$8 -100%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 15, 2026? Jun 14 $1 −$1 -100%
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by May 5, 2026? Jun 14 $3 −$3 -100%
Will the All India Trinamool Congress (AITC) win the most seats in the Jun 14 $7 −$7 -100%
Iran closes its airspace by May 8? Jun 14 $3 −$3 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down on May 3? Jun 14 $12 −$12 -100%
Will Bitcoin reach $82,500 in April? Jun 14 $4 −$4 -100%
FC Bayern München vs. Paris Saint-Germain FC: Both Teams to Score Jun 14 $3 −$3 -100%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
crypto 60% −$466
weather 20% −$249
other 8% −$23
world 4% −$61
politics 3% −$2
tech 2% −$8
sports 2% +$11
finance 1% +$4
economics 0% −$8
culture 0% −$1
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
USDE depeg by December 31? BUY No 92¢ $12 27m
Will the price of Ethereum be above $1,900 on June 19? BUY No 95¢ $1 29m
Will the price of XRP be between $1.00 and $1.10 on June 15? BUY No 93¢ $17 58m
Will Ethereum dip to $1,650 on June 13? BUY No 95¢ $17 1h
Will Ethereum dip to $1,650 on June 13? SELL Yes 5¢ $1 1h
Will the price of XRP be above $1.00 on June 19? BUY Yes 95¢ $17 1h
Will Bitcoin reach $65,000 on June 13? BUY Yes 44¢ $8 3h
Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by July 31? BUY No 96¢ $13 4h
Will the U.S. invade Greenland in 2026? BUY No 95¢ $12 4h
Will Bitcoin dip to $60,000 on June 13? BUY No 99¢ $10 5h
Bitcoin Up or Down on June 14? BUY Up 51¢ $10 5h
Bitcoin Up or Down on June 14? SELL Down 56¢ $10 6h
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $60,000 on June 19? BUY Yes 91¢ $16 7h
Will US announce location or date of US and Iran deal signing by June BUY Yes 99¢ $14 7h
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 13? BUY No 89¢ $12 8h
Will Ethereum dip to $1,650 on June 13? BUY Yes 21¢ $0 8h
Will Ethereum dip to $1,650 on June 13? BUY Yes 21¢ $4 8h
Will Ethereum reach $2,400 in June? BUY No 99¢ $18 8h
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 13? SELL Yes 36¢ $5 8h
Will the price of Ethereum be above $1,600 on June 15? BUY Yes 93¢ $17 8h
Will Bitcoin reach $80,000 in June? BUY No 98¢ $17 8h
Bitcoin Up or Down on June 14? BUY Down 60¢ $11 8h
Dota 2: Ilbirs eSports vs Noir Esports (BO3) - European Pro League Gro SELL Ilbirs eSports 41¢ $3 8h
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $64,000 on June 14? BUY No 47¢ $9 8h
Will Trump speak to Emmanuel Macron in June? BUY Yes 99¢ $14 9h
Solana Up or Down on June 13? BUY Up 99¢ $18 9h
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 14 SELL No 66¢ $9 9h
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $60,000 on June 19? BUY Yes 91¢ $0 10h
US x Iran permanent peace deal by July 31, 2026? SELL No 36¢ $5 10h
Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by June 24? BUY No 98¢ $13 10h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +25%
net ROI/market (all)-15.3%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 389 -12.4% -20.7% 56% 25% -18.8%
≤30d 1145 -8.2% -16.9% 58% 22% -14.6%
≤90d 1444 -6.4% -15.3% 57% 25% -14.6%
all 1444 -6.4% -15.3% 57% 25% -14.6%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.
turnover71.2 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -15.3% 25% -14.6%
10% ← realistic here -23.4% 12% -22.8%
15% -30.8% 7% -30.3%
20% -37.6% 4% -37.1%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $2,291.83 · official $2,289.42 (match) · 3500 history records