Wallet analysis

2026-06-23T07:44:11+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
FE 0xfe5f…df46 world 45 markets active 0h ago coverage 531d
TRAPdo not copy world specialist
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage
Total PnL −$19 (-1%) realized −$19 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -11% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -19% what you keep after slip
Net edge-19%after slip
Net WR2%break-even
Win rate31%14W / 31L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$55per market
Trades / day0.3pace
Fees−$2est.
Kalshi-fit78%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days$0
7 days−$1
14 days−$2
30 days−$1
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
world 37% −$2
other 27% −$4
sports 23% −$3
politics 12% −$3
finance 1% $0
weather 0% −$8
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +2%
net ROI/market (all)-19.3%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 8 -0.2% -9.7% 12% 0% -9.9%
≤30d 22 -0.2% -9.7% 32% 0% -9.7%
≤90d 38 -5.1% -14.2% 32% 3% -9.8%
all 45 -10.8% -19.3% 31% 2% -10.2%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.3 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -19.3% 2% -10.2%
10% -27.0% 0% -18.8%
15% -34.1% 0% -26.7%
20% -40.5% 0% -33.8%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 26% · top 2 42% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -0% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
86% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -11% · $-wt -1% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -22% → late -0% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.9 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$0 vs −$1 · ×0.22 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.17 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

531d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized−$19
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)31%
Wins / losses14 / 31
Est. fees paid−$2
Open positions0
Markets (closed)45 / 45
History coverage531d
Avg bet$55
Trades / day0.3
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit78%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 45 Trades
no open positions (1 resolved losses — in realized PnL)
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Israel withdraws from Lebanon by June 30, 2026? Jun 23 $36 $0 +0%
Israeli parliament dissolved by June 30? Jun 23 $36 $0 +0%
Will Russia capture all of Stepnohirsk by September 30, 2026? Jun 21 $2 $0 +0%
Mojtaba Khamenei seen in public by July 31? Jun 20 $9 $0 +4%
Will 80 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by June 30, 2026 Jun 19 $21 −$1 -5%
Will Avigdor Lieberman be the next Prime Minister of Israel? Jun 19 $41 $0 -0%
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by June 30, 2026? Jun 17 $1 $0 +0%
Will Benjamin Netanyahu be the next Prime Minister of Israel? Jun 17 $34 $0 +0%
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31? Jun 14 $134 −$1 -0%
Israel x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? Jun 09 $38 $0 -0%
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by July 31? Jun 08 $36 $0 -0%
Will Alberta join the US? Jun 08 $37 $0 +0%
US strike on Cuba by December 31? Jun 01 $22 $0 +0%
Ukraine agrees not to join NATO by June 30? May 31 $46 $0 +0%
Israel closes its airspace by May 31? May 29 $38 $0 +0%
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by December 31, 2026? May 29 $66 −$1 -1%
US-Iran nuclear deal by June 30? May 28 $65 $0 +1%
US obtains Iranian enriched uranium by May 31? May 26 $31 $0 +0%
Will Trump agree to Iranian transit fees in the Strait of Hormuz by Ma May 26 $68 $0 +1%
Iran agrees to surrender enriched uranium stockpile by May 31, 2026? May 25 $30 $0 +1%
US-Iran nuclear deal by May 31? May 24 $7 −$1 -7%
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra May 24 $12 $0 +3%
Will the Iranian regime fall by June 30? May 23 $31 $0 +1%
Iran closes its airspace by June 30? May 19 $31 $0 +0%
Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by May 31? May 19 $101 $0 +0%
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of May? May 16 $3 $0 -4%
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by May 31, 2026? May 16 $39 $0 +0%
Greece x Turkey military engagement by June 30? May 15 $33 $0 +0%
Will Călin Georgescu win the Romanian presidential election? Apr 27 $0 $0 -100%
Will Brazil win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Apr 27 $286 $0 +0%
Will France win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Apr 26 $48 $0 -1%
Will the Los Angeles Lakers win the 2026 NBA Finals? Apr 26 $263 −$3 -1%
Will Joao Fonseca win the 2026 Men's French Open? Apr 26 $7 +$1 +14%
Will the Carolina Panthers win the 2027 NFL league championship? Apr 25 $308 $0 +0%
Will Lorenzo Musetti win the 2026 Men's French Open? Apr 25 $214 $0 -0%
Will Rafael López Aliaga win the 2026 Peruvian presidential election? Apr 24 $264 −$2 -1%
Will Portugal win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Apr 23 $1 $0 +1%
Will Jon Ossoff win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Apr 23 $19 −$1 -5%
Will PAOK win on 2025-02-13? Mar 05 $5 −$5 -100%
Will the highest temperature in NYC be between 36-37°F on January 30? Feb 03 $4 −$4 -100%
Will Călin Georgescu win the Romanian Presidential election by 10% or Jan 31 $1 $0 +0%
Iggy Azalea vs. Profits Jan 22 $3 $0 -1%
Trump positive favorability on inauguration day? Jan 21 $6 +$1 +10%
Trump deportation executive order on Day 1? Jan 20 $1 $0 +0%
Will the December 2024 temperature increase be between 1.25-1.29°C? Jan 11 $4 −$4 -100%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Israel withdraws from Lebanon by June 30, 2026? SELL No 99¢ $36 29m
Israel withdraws from Lebanon by June 30, 2026? BUY No 99¢ $36 1h
Israeli parliament dissolved by June 30? SELL No 81¢ $36 5h
Israeli parliament dissolved by June 30? BUY No 81¢ $36 7h
Will Russia capture all of Stepnohirsk by September 30, 2026? SELL Yes 10¢ $2 2d
Will Russia capture all of Stepnohirsk by September 30, 2026? BUY Yes 10¢ $2 2d
Mojtaba Khamenei seen in public by July 31? SELL Yes 26¢ $9 3d
Mojtaba Khamenei seen in public by July 31? BUY Yes 25¢ $9 3d
Will 80 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by June 30, 2026 SELL Yes 8¢ $3 3d
Will 80 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by June 30, 2026 BUY Yes 11¢ $4 3d
Will Avigdor Lieberman be the next Prime Minister of Israel? SELL No 95¢ $37 3d
Will Avigdor Lieberman be the next Prime Minister of Israel? BUY No 95¢ $37 3d
Will 80 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by June 30, 2026 SELL Yes 19¢ $1 4d
Will 80 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by June 30, 2026 SELL Yes 19¢ $9 4d
Will 80 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by June 30, 2026 SELL Yes 19¢ $8 4d
Will 80 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by June 30, 2026 BUY Yes 19¢ $17 4d
Will Avigdor Lieberman be the next Prime Minister of Israel? SELL Yes 4¢ $0 4d
Will Avigdor Lieberman be the next Prime Minister of Israel? SELL Yes 4¢ $0 4d
Will Avigdor Lieberman be the next Prime Minister of Israel? SELL Yes 4¢ $1 4d
Will Avigdor Lieberman be the next Prime Minister of Israel? BUY Yes 5¢ $2 5d
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by June 30, 2026? SELL Yes 4¢ $1 5d
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by June 30, 2026? BUY Yes 4¢ $1 5d
Will Benjamin Netanyahu be the next Prime Minister of Israel? SELL No 69¢ $16 6d
Will Benjamin Netanyahu be the next Prime Minister of Israel? SELL No 69¢ $18 6d
Will Benjamin Netanyahu be the next Prime Minister of Israel? BUY No 69¢ $34 6d
Will Avigdor Lieberman be the next Prime Minister of Israel? SELL Yes 5¢ $2 7d
Will Avigdor Lieberman be the next Prime Minister of Israel? BUY Yes 4¢ $2 7d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31? SELL No 45¢ $34 8d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31? BUY No 45¢ $11 9d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31? BUY No 45¢ $23 9d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 182 history records