Wallet analysis

2026-06-18T07:59:26+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
FE 0xfe5e…b9b4 crypto 396 markets active 1h ago coverage 730d
TRAPdo not copy crypto specialistFading edge
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage
Total PnL +$3 (+0%) realized +$4 · open −$1
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +2% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -8% what you keep after slip
Net edge-8%after slip
Net WR18%break-even
Win rate50%193W / 196L
Drawdown94%max
Avg bet$25per market
Trades / day1.1pace
Kalshi-fit73%portable
Net worth$106now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$0
7 days−$1
14 days−$1
30 days−$4
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 83% +$10
other 10% −$10
finance 4% $0
tech 2% $0
world 1% $0
politics 0% +$1
sports 0% $0
economics 0% $0
culture 0% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +18%
net ROI/market (all)-8.1%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 14 +0.4% -9.2% 29% 0% -9.7%
≤30d 58 -1.5% -10.9% 22% 2% -9.8%
≤90d 153 -3.0% -12.2% 32% 7% -9.9%
all 389 +1.6% -8.1% 50% 18% -9.5%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover1.1 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -8.1% 18% -9.5%
10% -16.9% 9% -18.2%
15% -24.9% 5% -26.1%
20% -32.3% 3% -33.3%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 17% · top 2 26% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -0% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
64% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +2% · $-wt +0% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +6% → late -3% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
1.3 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$0 vs −$0 · ×1.03 wins ≈ losses
Profit factor
×1.03 profit barely above losses
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

730d coverage
Net worth$106
Realized+$4
Unrealized−$1
Win rate (resolved)50%
Wins / losses193 / 196
Open positions7
Markets (closed)389 / 396
History coverage730d
Avg bet$25
Trades / day1.1
Drawdown94%
Kalshi-fit73%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 7 History 389 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Gold (GC) hit (HIGH) $9,000 by end of June? No 100¢ 100¢ $100 $100 −$0 (-0%)
Will China invade Taiwan by June 30, 2026? No 100¢ 100¢ $2 $2 −$0 (-0%)
Jimmy Lai released by June 30? No 99¢ 99¢ $1 $1 −$0 (-0%)
China x Japan military clash before 2027? No 92¢ 92¢ $1 $1 −$0 (-1%)
Will Qatar win Group B in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? No 98¢ 97¢ $1 $1 −$0 (-1%)
Will Cape Verde win Group H in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? No 99¢ 97¢ $1 $1 −$0 (-2%)
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by June 15? Yes 29¢ 0¢ $1 $0 −$1 (-99%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 10 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Jesus Christ return before 2027? Jun 18 $7 $0 -0%
Will Algeria win Group J in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 18 $1 $0 +5%
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 13? Jun 18 $1 $0 +1%
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $200 in June? Jun 17 $130 $0 -0%
Will Panama win Group L in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 16 $2 $0 -0%
Zendaya confirmed pregnant by June 30? Jun 13 $1 $0 -0%
Will Bitcoin reach $500,000 by December 31, 2026? Jun 13 $149 −$1 -0%
Will Korea Republic win on 2026-06-11? Jun 12 $1 $0 +3%
Will Jessica Pegula be the 2026 Women’s Wimbledon Winner? Jun 12 $1 $0 -1%
Will Madison Keys be the 2026 Women’s Wimbledon Winner? Jun 12 $1 $0 -1%
Will Belinda Bencic be the 2026 Women’s Wimbledon Winner? Jun 12 $1 $0 -1%
Will China blockade Taiwan by June 30? Jun 12 $2 $0 -0%
China x Taiwan military clash before 2027? Jun 12 $1 $0 +1%
Will Ethereum reach $3,000 in June? Jun 11 $100 $0 -0%
Iran agrees to end enrichment of uranium by June 30? Jun 10 $1 $0 -3%
Trump out as President by June 30? Jun 10 $1 $0 +0%
Hantavirus lab leak confirmed by June 30? Jun 10 $2 $0 -0%
Taylor Swift pregnant before marriage? Jun 10 $4 $0 -1%
Will Gold (GC) hit (HIGH) $10,000 by end of June? Jun 10 $20 $0 -0%
Will Microsoft be the largest company in the world by market cap on Ju Jun 10 $50 $0 -0%
Will Uzbekistan win Group K in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 06 $2 $0 -1%
Will Haiti win Group C in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 06 $2 $0 -0%
Will Bitcoin reach $100,000 in June? Jun 06 $150 $0 -0%
Will Saudi Aramco be the largest company in the world by market cap on Jun 05 $60 $0 -0%
Will Solana reach $160 in June? Jun 05 $50 $0 -0%
Will China invade Taiwan by September 30, 2026? Jun 04 $2 $0 -1%
Will Tesla be the second-largest company in the world by market cap on Jun 04 $2 $0 -0%
Will Ethereum reach $8,000 by December 31, 2026? Jun 04 $49 −$1 -1%
China x India military clash by December 31, 2026? Jun 02 $1 $0 -27%
Xi Jinping divorce before 2027? Jun 02 $2 $0 -0%
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of May? Jun 02 $2 $0 -0%
Will Ethereum reach $3,400 in May? Jun 01 $100 $0 +0%
Will Alphabet be the largest company in the world by market cap on May May 30 $2 $0 -0%
Will Apple be the largest company in the world by market cap on May 31 May 30 $15 $0 -0%
Will Ethereum reach $2,800 in May? May 30 $10 $0 -0%
Will Bitcoin reach $100,000 in May? May 30 $50 $0 -0%
Will the Democratic Republic of Congo win Group K in the 2026 FIFA Wor May 28 $1 $0 -1%
Will the Iran ceasefire continue through May 24? May 28 $1 $0 +2%
Will the Iranian regime fall by June 30? May 28 $4 $0 -0%
Will XRP reach $3.00 in May? May 28 $35 $0 -0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $80,000 on May 26? May 26 $20 $0 +0%
Bitcoin Up or Down on May 26? May 26 $1 $0 +22%
Will Jordan win Group J in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? May 26 $1 $0 -0%
Will the price of Solana be above $100 on May 22? May 26 $0 $0 +0%
Will Norway win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? May 26 $1 $0 -1%
Will Belgium win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? May 26 $2 $0 -0%
Will Switzerland win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? May 26 $2 $0 -0%
Will Gold (XAUUSD) hit (HIGH) $5,400 in May? May 26 $10 $0 -0%
Will Ethereum reach $3,600 in May? May 26 $30 $0 -0%
Will the price of Ethereum be above $2,300 on May 22? May 22 $20 $0 +0%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Jimmy Lai released by June 30? BUY No 99¢ $1 1h
Will China invade Taiwan by June 30, 2026? BUY No 100¢ $2 1h
China x Japan military clash before 2027? BUY No 92¢ $1 1h
Will Gold (GC) hit (HIGH) $9,000 by end of June? BUY No 100¢ $100 1h
Will Jesus Christ return before 2027? SELL No 98¢ $1 1h
Will China invade Taiwan by June 30, 2026? SELL No 100¢ $1 1h
Will Algeria win Group J in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL No 98¢ $1 1h
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $200 in June? SELL No 100¢ $100 19h
Will Jesus Christ return before 2027? BUY No 98¢ $1 2d
Will China invade Taiwan by June 30, 2026? BUY No 100¢ $1 2d
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 13? BUY No 99¢ $1 2d
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $200 in June? BUY No 100¢ $100 2d
Will Panama win Group L in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL No 97¢ $2 2d
Zendaya confirmed pregnant by June 30? SELL No 99¢ $1 5d
Will Bitcoin reach $500,000 by December 31, 2026? SELL No 98¢ $98 5d
Zendaya confirmed pregnant by June 30? BUY No 99¢ $1 6d
Will Panama win Group L in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 97¢ $2 6d
Will Qatar win Group B in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 98¢ $1 6d
Will Cape Verde win Group H in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 99¢ $1 6d
Will Korea Republic win on 2026-06-11? BUY Yes 97¢ $1 6d
Will Bitcoin reach $500,000 by December 31, 2026? BUY No 99¢ $99 6d
Will Jessica Pegula be the 2026 Women’s Wimbledon Winner? SELL No 98¢ $1 6d
Will Madison Keys be the 2026 Women’s Wimbledon Winner? SELL No 98¢ $1 6d
Will Belinda Bencic be the 2026 Women’s Wimbledon Winner? SELL No 99¢ $1 6d
Will China blockade Taiwan by June 30? SELL No 99¢ $1 6d
Will China invade Taiwan by June 30, 2026? SELL No 99¢ $1 6d
China x Taiwan military clash before 2027? SELL No 91¢ $1 6d
Will Ethereum reach $3,000 in June? SELL No 100¢ $100 6d
China x Taiwan military clash before 2027? BUY No 90¢ $1 8d
Will China blockade Taiwan by June 30? BUY No 99¢ $1 8d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $106.13 · official $106.13 (match) · 982 history records