Wallet analysis

2026-06-17T07:44:34+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
FE 0xfe5d…b869 crypto 113 markets active 2d ago coverage 7d
TRAPdo not copy crypto specialist⚠ High turnover
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died! high turnover
Total PnL −$120 (-8%) realized −$120 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -9% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -30% what you keep after slip
Net edge-30%after slip
Net WR42%break-even
Win rate47%53W / 60L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$13per market
Trades / day25.1pace
Kalshi-fit100%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 7d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 100% −$162
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +42%
net ROI/market (all)-17.8%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 68 -17.3% -25.1% 41% 37% -24.6%
≤30d 113 -9.2% -17.8% 47% 42% -19.9%
≤90d 113 -9.2% -17.8% 47% 42% -19.9%
all 113 -9.2% -17.8% 47% 42% -19.9%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover25.1 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -17.8% 42% -19.9%
10% ← realistic here -25.7% 41% -27.5%
15% -32.9% 39% -34.5%
20% -39.5% 35% -41.0%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 11% · top 2 18% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -11% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
9% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -9% · $-wt -11% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -5% → late -13% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.1 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$11 vs −$13 · ×0.89 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.79 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

7d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized−$120
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)47%
Wins / losses53 / 60
Open positions0
Markets (closed)113 / 113
History coverage7d
Avg bet$13
Trades / day25.1
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit100%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 113 Trades
no open positions (56 resolved losses — in realized PnL)
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 7:40AM-7:45AM ET Jun 15 $1 +$1 +80%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 11:35PM-11:40PM ET Jun 15 $1 −$1 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 2:40PM-2:45PM ET Jun 11 $1 −$1 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 12:05PM-12:10PM ET Jun 10 $10 −$10 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 12:00PM-12:05PM ET Jun 10 $84 −$80 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 11:55AM-12:00PM ET Jun 10 $63 −$60 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 11:50AM-11:55AM ET Jun 10 $41 −$40 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 11:40AM-11:45AM ET Jun 10 $21 +$21 +101%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 11:45AM-11:50AM ET Jun 10 $21 −$20 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 11:35AM-11:40AM ET Jun 10 $21 −$20 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 11:10AM-11:15AM ET Jun 10 $10 +$9 +90%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 11:20AM-11:25AM ET Jun 10 $10 +$10 +93%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 11:30AM-11:35AM ET Jun 10 $10 −$10 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 11:25AM-11:30AM ET Jun 10 $10 −$10 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 11:15AM-11:20AM ET Jun 10 $10 −$10 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 10:50AM-10:55AM ET Jun 10 $10 +$11 +105%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 11:05AM-11:10AM ET Jun 10 $11 +$4 +37%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 11:00AM-11:05AM ET Jun 10 $21 +$17 +84%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 10:55AM-11:00AM ET Jun 10 $10 −$10 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 10:30AM-10:35AM ET Jun 10 $10 +$9 +90%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 10:35AM-10:40AM ET Jun 10 $10 +$10 +101%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 10:45AM-10:50AM ET Jun 10 $10 −$10 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 10:40AM-10:45AM ET Jun 10 $10 −$10 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 10:25AM-10:30AM ET Jun 10 $10 −$10 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 10:15AM-10:20AM ET Jun 10 $21 +$2 +8%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 10:00AM-10:05AM ET Jun 10 $42 +$70 +166%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 9:55AM-10:00AM ET Jun 10 $21 −$20 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 9:50AM-9:55AM ET Jun 10 $21 −$20 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 9:35AM-9:40AM ET Jun 10 $21 −$20 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 9:30AM-9:35AM ET Jun 10 $21 −$20 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 9:25AM-9:30AM ET Jun 10 $5 −$5 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 9:10AM-9:15AM ET Jun 10 $21 +$16 +79%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 9:20AM-9:25AM ET Jun 10 $21 +$24 +116%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 9:00AM-9:05AM ET Jun 10 $21 +$28 +134%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 8:55AM-9:00AM ET Jun 10 $21 +$23 +110%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 9:05AM-9:10AM ET Jun 10 $21 +$2 +10%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 8:50AM-8:55AM ET Jun 10 $21 −$20 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 8:45AM-8:50AM ET Jun 10 $4 −$4 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 8:40AM-8:45AM ET Jun 10 $21 −$20 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 8:35AM-8:40AM ET Jun 10 $21 +$29 +137%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 8:30AM-8:35AM ET Jun 10 $21 −$20 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 8:25AM-8:30AM ET Jun 10 $21 −$20 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 8:15AM-8:20AM ET Jun 10 $28 −$6 -20%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 8:10AM-8:15AM ET Jun 10 $10 −$2 -22%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 8:05AM-8:10AM ET Jun 10 $21 +$22 +105%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 8:00AM-8:05AM ET Jun 10 $21 +$42 +199%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 7:55AM-8:00AM ET Jun 10 $21 −$20 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 7:50AM-7:55AM ET Jun 10 $21 −$20 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 7:40AM-7:45AM ET Jun 10 $21 −$20 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 7:35AM-7:40AM ET Jun 10 $10 +$10 +99%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 7:40AM-7:45AM ET SELL Down 99¢ $2 43h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 7:40AM-7:45AM ET BUY Down 53¢ $1 44h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 11:35PM-11:40PM ET BUY Up 48¢ $1 2d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 2:40PM-2:45PM ET BUY Down 48¢ $1 5d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 12:05PM-12:10PM ET BUY Up 50¢ $10 6d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 12:00PM-12:05PM ET BUY Up 26¢ $21 6d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 12:00PM-12:05PM ET BUY Up 30¢ $21 6d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 12:00PM-12:05PM ET BUY Up 30¢ $21 6d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 12:00PM-12:05PM ET BUY Up 46¢ $21 6d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 11:55AM-12:00PM ET BUY Up 16¢ $21 6d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 11:55AM-12:00PM ET BUY Up 48¢ $21 6d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 11:55AM-12:00PM ET BUY Up 48¢ $21 6d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 11:50AM-11:55AM ET BUY Down 50¢ $21 6d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 11:50AM-11:55AM ET BUY Down 50¢ $21 6d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 11:45AM-11:50AM ET BUY Up 51¢ $21 6d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 11:40AM-11:45AM ET BUY Up 48¢ $21 6d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 11:35AM-11:40AM ET BUY Up 50¢ $21 6d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 11:30AM-11:35AM ET BUY Down 52¢ $10 6d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 11:25AM-11:30AM ET BUY Up 46¢ $10 6d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 11:20AM-11:25AM ET BUY Up 50¢ $10 6d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 11:15AM-11:20AM ET BUY Down 48¢ $10 6d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 11:10AM-11:15AM ET BUY Down 51¢ $10 6d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 11:05AM-11:10AM ET SELL Up 17¢ $15 6d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 11:05AM-11:10AM ET BUY Up 11¢ $11 6d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 11:00AM-11:05AM ET SELL Down 99¢ $38 6d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 11:00AM-11:05AM ET BUY Down 52¢ $21 6d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 10:55AM-11:00AM ET BUY Down 36¢ $10 6d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 10:50AM-10:55AM ET BUY Down 47¢ $10 6d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 10:45AM-10:50AM ET BUY Up 49¢ $10 6d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 10:40AM-10:45AM ET BUY Down 49¢ $10 6d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 185 history records