Wallet analysis

2026-06-24T17:39:28+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

3.0
score
FE 0xfe5b…babf crypto 697 markets active 1h ago coverage 203d
TRAPdo not copy crypto specialistFading edge
✗ negative after realistic slippage
Total PnL +$883 (+8%) realized +$707 · open +$176
Gross ROI / mkt +1% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -13% what you keep after slip
Net edge-13%after slip
Net WR52%break-even
Win rate74%508W / 174L
Drawdown38%max
Avg bet$16per market
Trades / day6.2pace
Fees−$0est.
Kalshi-fit85%portable
Net worth$1,237now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$16
7 days+$118
14 days−$21
30 days−$9
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
other 53% +$802
crypto 19% +$84
politics 12% −$106
world 9% −$38
tech 5% +$19
economics 2% +$47
culture 0% +$9
finance 0% +$6
sports 0% +$5
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +52%
net ROI/market (all)-9.0%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 8 +13.3% +2.5% 88% 62% +12.3%
≤30d 37 -4.9% -14.0% 73% 51% -9.9%
≤90d 143 -3.8% -13.0% 72% 50% -3.3%
all 682 +0.6% -9.0% 74% 52% -3.7%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover6.2 tr/day
realistic slip~7%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -9.0% 52% -3.7%
10% -17.7% 36% -12.9%
15% -25.6% 23% -21.3%
20% -32.9% 13% -29.1%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 11% · top 2 15% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +7% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
30% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +1% · $-wt +6% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +7% → late -6% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
1.6 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$4 vs −$7 · ×0.52 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×1.51 per $1 lost it wins $1.51
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

203d coverage
Net worth$1,237
Realized+$707
Unrealized+$176
Win rate (resolved)74%
Wins / losses508 / 174
Est. fees paid−$0
Open positions15
Markets (closed)682 / 697
History coverage203d
Avg bet$16
Trades / day6.2
Drawdown38%
Kalshi-fit85%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 15 History 682 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Trump orders federal review of AI model releases by June 30? No 65¢ 81¢ $373 $463 +$90 (+24%)
Tamas Sulyok out as President of Hungary by June 30? No 92¢ 94¢ $345 $351 +$6 (+2%)
World Cup: Most Player Goals Record Broken? No 93¢ 93¢ $103 $103 +$0 (+0%)
Steve Bannon exonerated by June 30? No 47¢ 87¢ $56 $103 +$47 (+84%)
Kash Patel out by December 31? No 40¢ 56¢ $25 $34 +$10 (+40%)
Will Aristotle self-certify sports event contracts by June 30, 2026? No 56¢ 74¢ $20 $26 +$6 (+31%)
Will Bitcoin dip to $55,000 in June? No 83¢ 74¢ $26 $23 −$3 (-11%)
Will Russia capture Dovha Balka by June 30? No 81¢ 91¢ $20 $23 +$3 (+13%)
Jerome Powell out from Fed Board by December 31? No 55¢ 62¢ $20 $22 +$2 (+12%)
Will Russia capture Kostyantynivka by June 30? No 74¢ 79¢ $20 $21 +$1 (+7%)
Will Elon Musk go on Joe Rogan before June 30? No 47¢ 95¢ $10 $20 +$10 (+100%)
Will Russia capture all of Rodynske again by June 30? No 60¢ 95¢ $10 $16 +$6 (+59%)
Will ForecastEx self-certify sports event contracts by June 30, 2026? No 75¢ 91¢ $13 $16 +$3 (+20%)
Will Ronaldo Cry at the World Cup? No 35¢ 32¢ $10 $9 −$1 (-7%)
Will Bitcoin dip to $57,500 in June? No 58¢ 39¢ $10 $7 −$3 (-34%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 19 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Ebola case in the US by June 30? Jun 24 $30 +$6 +19%
Will SpaceX's valuation hit (HIGH) $3.0T by June 30? Jun 24 $93 +$10 +11%
Will xQc beat Forsen's Minecraft speedrun record by June 30, 2026? Jun 22 $265 +$80 +30%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 5:35PM-5:40PM ET Jun 19 $2 $0 +5%
Will United States win on 2026-06-19? Jun 19 $11 +$7 +62%
Will United States vs. Australia end in a draw? Jun 19 $3 −$1 -44%
Will Robert Kenyon win the 2026 Makerfield by-election? Jun 19 $68 +$16 +23%
Will Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva win the 2026 Brazilian presidential ele Jun 18 $15 $0 +0%
Rodrigo Paz out as President of Bolivia by June 30, 2026? Jun 16 $44 +$4 +8%
Will Russia capture Rai-Oleksandrivka by June 30? Jun 16 $25 +$2 +9%
Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (HIGH) $110 by end of June? Jun 15 $20 +$6 +32%
Will Keiko Fujimori win the 2026 Peruvian presidential election? Jun 15 $177 −$171 -96%
Will Google have the best AI model at the end of June 2026? Jun 15 $10 −$6 -63%
Katy Perry and Justin Trudeau engaged by end of 2026? Jun 15 $20 −$4 -20%
Will Bitcoin dip to $52,500 in June? Jun 13 $41 +$8 +19%
Miguel Díaz-Canel out as President of Cuba by June 30? Jun 11 $190 +$23 +12%
Will Nithya Raman win the 2026 Los Angeles mayoral election? Jun 07 $167 −$54 -32%
Will Netanyahu be pardoned by June 30? Jun 07 $161 +$12 +8%
Will the next model released by xAI debut at a score of at least 1460? Jun 06 $20 +$10 +49%
Iran closes its airspace by June 15? Jun 05 $13 +$1 +8%
Will Spencer Pratt win the 2026 Los Angeles mayoral election? Jun 04 $40 +$5 +12%
Israel announces Lebanon ceasefire extension by June 7? Jun 03 $32 −$32 -100%
Kash Patel out by June 30? Jun 03 $10 +$4 +39%
Miguel Díaz-Canel out as leader of Cuba by December 31? Jun 02 $15 +$3 +22%
Will xQc beat Forsen's Minecraft speedrun record by May 31, 2026? Jun 01 $202 +$66 +32%
Will Claude 5 be released by June 30, 2026? Jun 01 $21 −$21 -99%
Iran closes its airspace by June 30? Jun 01 $15 −$15 -100%
Nothing Ever Happens: May Jun 01 $192 +$59 +31%
Critical Discord Incident by May 31? May 31 $23 +$5 +20%
US x Cuba diplomatic meeting by May 31? May 29 $45 −$45 -100%
Kash Patel out by May 31? May 29 $20 +$5 +23%
Iran closes its airspace by May 27? May 26 $10 +$1 +13%
Iran closes its airspace by May 31? May 26 $35 +$7 +21%
XRP Up or Down - May 25, 6:15PM-6:20PM ET May 25 $1 +$1 +52%
XRP Up or Down - May 25, 6:05PM-6:10PM ET May 25 $2 $0 +5%
XRP Up or Down - May 25, 6:10PM-6:15PM ET May 25 $1 −$1 -96%
XRP Up or Down - May 25, 6:00PM-6:05PM ET May 25 $2 $0 +7%
Iran closes its airspace by May 24? May 25 $20 +$7 +35%
Will there be exactly 0 earthquakes of magnitude 6.5 or higher worldwi May 25 $10 −$10 -98%
US x Cuba diplomatic meeting by June 30? May 25 $10 −$10 -100%
Will the Iran ceasefire continue through May 24? May 25 $71 +$16 +22%
Iran coup attempt by June 30? May 23 $50 +$2 +3%
Will the Iran ceasefire continue through June 30? May 20 $10 −$10 -100%
Will the Iran ceasefire continue through June 15? May 20 $10 −$10 -100%
Will the Iran ceasefire continue through June 7? May 20 $10 −$10 -100%
Will the Iran ceasefire continue through May 31? May 20 $20 −$20 -100%
Zendaya confirmed pregnant by June 30? May 20 $190 −$1 -0%
Will the Iran ceasefire continue through May 27? May 20 $10 −$10 -100%
Will Annie January (Starlight) die in "The Boys: Season 5"? May 20 $101 +$15 +15%
Will Drake officially release Iceman by May 15, 2026? May 13 $10 $0 +2%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Bitcoin dip to $55,000 in June? BUY No 83¢ $26 1h
Will Bitcoin dip to $57,500 in June? BUY No 58¢ $10 1h
Ebola case in the US by June 30? SELL No 95¢ $36 1h
World Cup: Most Player Goals Record Broken? BUY No 93¢ $103 3h
Will SpaceX's valuation hit (HIGH) $3.0T by June 30? SELL No 99¢ $103 3h
Tamas Sulyok out as President of Hungary by June 30? BUY No 92¢ $346 2d
Will xQc beat Forsen's Minecraft speedrun record by June 30, 2026? SELL No 99¢ $346 2d
Will SpaceX's valuation hit (HIGH) $3.0T by June 30? BUY No 90¢ $19 4d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 5:35PM-5:40PM ET BUY Down 99¢ $1 4d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 5:35PM-5:40PM ET BUY Down 91¢ $1 4d
Will United States win on 2026-06-19? SELL Yes 100¢ $18 4d
Will United States vs. Australia end in a draw? SELL Yes 13¢ $2 4d
Will SpaceX's valuation hit (HIGH) $3.0T by June 30? BUY No 89¢ $74 5d
Will Ronaldo Cry at the World Cup? BUY No 35¢ $10 5d
Will United States vs. Australia end in a draw? BUY Yes 22¢ $3 6d
Will United States win on 2026-06-19? BUY Yes 61¢ $11 6d
Will Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva win the 2026 Brazilian presidential ele SELL Yes 49¢ $15 6d
Will Robert Kenyon win the 2026 Makerfield by-election? BUY No 81¢ $48 7d
Rodrigo Paz out as President of Bolivia by June 30, 2026? SELL No 96¢ $48 7d
Trump orders federal review of AI model releases by June 30? BUY No 73¢ $27 8d
Will Russia capture Rai-Oleksandrivka by June 30? SELL No 97¢ $27 8d
Trump orders federal review of AI model releases by June 30? BUY No 73¢ $27 8d
Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (HIGH) $110 by end of June? SELL No 98¢ $27 8d
Trump orders federal review of AI model releases by June 30? BUY No 67¢ $26 9d
Will Keiko Fujimori win the 2026 Peruvian presidential election? SELL No $6 9d
Will Google have the best AI model at the end of June 2026? SELL Yes $4 9d
Katy Perry and Justin Trudeau engaged by end of 2026? SELL No 63¢ $16 9d
Trump orders federal review of AI model releases by June 30? BUY No 67¢ $21 10d
Will Bitcoin dip to $55,000 in June? SELL No 90¢ $21 10d
Trump orders federal review of AI model releases by June 30? BUY No 66¢ $49 10d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $1,236.65 · official $1,236.65 (match) · 1929 history records