Wallet analysis

2026-06-23T22:10:53+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

4.5
score
FE 0xfe55…352a other 10 markets active 2h ago coverage 520d
RISKYcopy with care ⚠ Small sampleP/L from Polymarket (history capped)
✗ too few resolved markets (<12) to judge✗ on-chain reconstruction ≠ official P&L (longshot/capped history)✗ profits on perfect fills only — loses on real
Total PnL −$596 (-11%) realized −$4,356 · open +$3,760
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +11% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt +1% what you keep after slip
Net edge+1%after slip
Net WR67%break-even
Win rate67%6W / 3L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$550per market
Trades / day0.0pace
Fees−$17est.
Kalshi-fit70%portable
Net worth$4,760now

Equity curve

realized PnL
Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 520d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

Categories

share · PnL
other 46% +$4,885
sports 31% −$1,717
crypto 18% −$74
politics 3% −$36
tech 2% +$72
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
insufficient sample — too few resolved markets to judge
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +67%
net ROI/market (all)+0.8%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 2 -20.3% -27.9% 50% 50% +15.3%
≤30d 3 -46.8% -51.9% 33% 33% -51.1%
≤90d 3 -46.8% -51.9% 33% 33% -51.1%
all 9 +11.4% +0.8% 67% 67% -22.2%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.0 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to5%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here +0.8% 67% -22.2%
10% -8.8% 56% -29.7%
15% -17.7% 56% -36.5%
20% -25.7% 56% -42.7%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 43% · top 2 80% thin sample
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -46% too few recent
Fragile wins
0% wins margin < slip thin sample
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +11% · $-wt -14% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early —% → late —% no data
Add-ons / DCA
1.2 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$235 vs −$680 · ×0.35 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.69 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $300 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

520d coverage
Net worth$4,760
Realized−$4,356
Unrealized+$3,760
Win rate (resolved)67%
Wins / losses6 / 3
Est. fees paid−$17
Open positions1
Markets (closed)9 / 10
History coverage520d
Avg bet$550
Trades / day0.0
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit70%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 9 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will England win on 2026-06-23? No 21¢ 100¢ $1,000 $4,760 +$3,760 (+376%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will United States win on 2026-06-19? Jun 19 $1,011 +$602 +60%
Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-14? Jun 17 $254 −$254 -100%
Knicks vs. Spurs Jun 12 $1,717 −$1,717 -100%
Super Bowl LIX Winner Feb 11 $503 +$524 +104%
Will Trump say "Kamala" during his inauguration speech? Jan 20 $100 −$69 -69%
Will Trump say "god" 4+ times during his inauguration speech? Jan 20 $50 +$33 +66%
Will Trump say "AI" or "Artificial Intelligence" during his inaugurati Jan 20 $100 +$72 +72%
Will Trump say "crypto" or "Bitcoin" during his inauguration speech? Jan 20 $200 +$115 +58%
Will Trump say "doge" or "Dogecoin" during his inauguration speech? Jan 20 $540 +$65 +12%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will England win on 2026-06-23? BUY No 21¢ $1,024 1h
Will United States win on 2026-06-19? BUY Yes 62¢ $1,011 4d
Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-14? BUY Yes 46¢ $254 9d
Knicks vs. Spurs BUY Spurs 67¢ $1,717 19d
Super Bowl LIX Winner BUY Eagles 49¢ $503 499d
Will Trump say "doge" or "Dogecoin" during his inauguration speech? BUY No 89¢ $540 520d
Will Trump say "crypto" or "Bitcoin" during his inauguration speech? BUY No 63¢ $100 520d
Will Trump say "Kamala" during his inauguration speech? BUY Yes 22¢ $75 520d
Will Trump say "AI" or "Artificial Intelligence" during his inaugurati BUY No 58¢ $100 520d
Will Trump say "crypto" or "Bitcoin" during his inauguration speech? BUY No 64¢ $100 520d
Will Trump say "god" 4+ times during his inauguration speech? BUY Yes 60¢ $50 520d
Will Trump say "Kamala" during his inauguration speech? BUY No 81¢ $25 520d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $4,759.52 · official $4,759.52 (match) · 22 history records