Wallet analysis

2026-06-19T23:59:26+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
FE 0xfe54…0281 other 53 markets active 2h ago coverage 134d
TRAPdo not copy
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died! concentrated profit (few bets)
Total PnL −$74 (-21%) realized −$44 · open −$30
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -30% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -37% what you keep after slip
Net edge-37%after slip
Net WR23%break-even
Win rate52%16W / 15L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$7per market
Trades / day0.6pace
Fees−$0est.
Kalshi-fit36%portable
Net worth$177now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$10
7 days−$20
14 days−$35
30 days−$35
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
other 75% −$55
world 15% −$10
politics 6% −$2
sports 4% −$10
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +23%
net ROI/market (all)-37.0%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 4 -48.5% -53.4% 25% 25% -68.3%
≤30d 8 -61.7% -65.4% 25% 12% -61.2%
≤90d 8 -61.7% -65.4% 25% 12% -61.2%
all 31 -30.4% -37.0% 52% 23% -38.5%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.6 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -37.0% 23% -38.5%
10% -43.1% 10% -44.3%
15% -48.6% 3% -49.7%
20% -53.6% 0% -54.7%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 43% · top 2 60% concentrated in a few bets
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -57% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
56% wins margin < slip thin win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -30% · $-wt -32% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -22% → late -38% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.2 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$1 vs −$4 · ×0.17 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.18 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

134d coverage
Net worth$177
Realized−$44
Unrealized−$30
Win rate (resolved)52%
Wins / losses16 / 15
Est. fees paid−$0
Open positions22
Markets (closed)31 / 53
History coverage134d
Avg bet$7
Trades / day0.6
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit36%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 22 History 31 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Ronaldo Cry at the World Cup? Yes 67¢ 66¢ $50 $49 −$1 (-2%)
Will Norway reach the 2026 FIFA World Cup final? Yes 10¢ 8¢ $21 $16 −$5 (-24%)
Will Portugal win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 8¢ 7¢ $15 $14 −$1 (-10%)
Will Japan win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 2¢ 1¢ $15 $12 −$3 (-17%)
Will Japan be eliminated in the Round of 16 of the World Cup? Yes 19¢ 19¢ $10 $10 +$0 (+0%)
Will Japan reach the Round of 16 at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 43¢ 42¢ $10 $10 −$0 (-3%)
Will Croatia win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 1¢ 1¢ $10 $7 −$3 (-28%)
Will Japan reach the 2026 FIFA World Cup final? Yes 8¢ 5¢ $10 $7 −$3 (-35%)
Will Morocco reach the Round of 16 at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 52¢ 55¢ $5 $5 +$0 (+4%)
Will Portugal reach the Round of 16 at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 69¢ 69¢ $5 $5 −$0 (-0%)
Will Portugal win Group K in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 47¢ 46¢ $5 $5 −$0 (-1%)
Will Japan win Group F in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 28¢ 28¢ $5 $5 −$0 (-2%)
Will Norway win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 2¢ 2¢ $5 $5 −$0 (-2%)
Will Norway win Group I in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 22¢ 22¢ $5 $5 −$0 (-2%)
Will Norway reach the Round of 16 at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 62¢ 60¢ $5 $5 −$0 (-2%)
Will Thomas Massie win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Yes 3¢ 1¢ $10 $5 −$5 (-53%)
Will Neymar play in the World Cup? No 12¢ 18¢ $3 $4 +$1 (+50%)
Will Ivory Coast reach the 2026 FIFA World Cup final? Yes 5¢ 2¢ $10 $3 −$7 (-66%)
Will Croatia reach the 2026 FIFA World Cup final? Yes 5¢ 2¢ $5 $3 −$2 (-47%)
Will Ivory Coast win Group E in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 21¢ 21¢ $1 $1 −$0 (-0%)
Will Ivory Coast reach the Round of 16 at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 41¢ 38¢ $1 $1 −$0 (-7%)
Will Senegal reach the Round of 16 at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 32¢ 29¢ $1 $1 −$0 (-9%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 9 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Bosnia and Herzegovina win on 2026-06-18? Jun 18 $10 −$10 -98%
Will Japan win on 2026-06-14? Jun 14 $10 −$10 -98%
Will Ivory Coast win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 14 $5 $0 -6%
Will USA reach the 2026 FIFA World Cup final? Jun 14 $5 +$1 +12%
Will Bosnia and Herzegovina win on 2026-06-12? Jun 11 $5 −$5 -98%
Will Korea Republic vs. Czechia end in a draw? Jun 11 $5 −$5 -98%
Will Mexico vs. South Africa end in a draw? Jun 11 $5 −$5 -98%
Will Portugal reach the 2026 FIFA World Cup final? Jun 11 $15 $0 +0%
Will Marco Rubio win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Mar 06 $10 +$5 +45%
Will Barcelona win the 2025–26 La Liga? Mar 06 $2 +$1 +31%
Will Manchester United finish in the top 4 of the EPL 2025–26 standing Mar 06 $2 $0 +12%
Starmer out by June 30, 2026? Mar 06 $2 $0 +7%
Will Ted Cruz win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Mar 06 $2 −$1 -36%
Will TheUnitedStrand get a haircut by 2025-26 season end? Mar 06 $2 −$1 -57%
Starmer out by March 31, 2026? Mar 06 $5 −$4 -83%
Will Manchester United finish in 3rd place in the 2025-26 English Prem Mar 06 $1 $0 -35%
Will Manchester United FC win on 2026-03-04? Feb 24 $1 −$1 -100%
Will US or Israel strike Iran by February 28, 2026? Feb 21 $20 +$2 +9%
US strikes Iran by February 13, 2026? Feb 14 $3 $0 +12%
Will Jesus Christ return before 2027? Feb 12 $2 $0 +0%
Will Russia capture Lyman by March 31, 2026? Feb 10 $1 $0 +5%
Will Russia capture all of Stepnohirsk by February 28, 2026? Feb 10 $1 $0 +14%
Will Iran close the Strait of Hormuz by March 31? Feb 10 $1 $0 +2%
US strikes Iran by March 31, 2026? Feb 08 $8 −$8 -100%
Starmer out by February 28, 2026? Feb 08 $1 $0 +1%
US strikes Iran by February 7, 2026? Feb 08 $3 $0 +5%
Will the next official US-Iran meeting be in Oman? Feb 07 $6 +$2 +30%
US strikes Iran by February 6, 2026? Feb 07 $1 $0 +2%
Will Witkoff meet with Iranian officials by February 28? Feb 05 $5 −$1 -12%
US x Iran nuclear talks resume by March 31? Feb 05 $1 −$1 -100%
US strikes Iran by February 28, 2026? Feb 05 $5 −$5 -100%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Japan win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 1¢ $10 1h
Will Portugal win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 7¢ $10 1h
Will Norway win Group I in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 22¢ $5 1h
Will Portugal win Group K in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 47¢ $5 1h
Will Japan win Group F in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 28¢ $5 1h
Will Japan be eliminated in the Round of 16 of the World Cup? BUY Yes 19¢ $10 1h
Will Ronaldo Cry at the World Cup? BUY Yes 67¢ $50 1h
Will Portugal reach the Round of 16 at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 69¢ $5 1h
Will Norway reach the Round of 16 at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 62¢ $5 1h
Will Morocco reach the Round of 16 at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 52¢ $5 1h
Will Japan reach the Round of 16 at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 43¢ $10 1h
Will Ivory Coast reach the Round of 16 at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 41¢ $1 1h
Will Senegal reach the Round of 16 at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 32¢ $1 1h
Will Ivory Coast win Group E in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 21¢ $1 1h
Will Bosnia and Herzegovina win on 2026-06-18? BUY Yes 15¢ $5 32h
Will Bosnia and Herzegovina win on 2026-06-18? BUY Yes 15¢ $5 32h
Will Japan win on 2026-06-14? BUY Yes 21¢ $5 5d
Will Ivory Coast win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL Yes 0¢ $5 5d
Will Japan win on 2026-06-14? BUY Yes 24¢ $5 5d
Will USA reach the 2026 FIFA World Cup final? SELL Yes 6¢ $6 5d
Will Bosnia and Herzegovina win on 2026-06-12? BUY Yes 21¢ $5 8d
Will Korea Republic vs. Czechia end in a draw? BUY Yes 32¢ $5 8d
Will Mexico vs. South Africa end in a draw? BUY Yes 22¢ $5 8d
Will Portugal reach the 2026 FIFA World Cup final? SELL Yes 20¢ $15 8d
Will Norway reach the 2026 FIFA World Cup final? BUY Yes 10¢ $16 25d
Will Japan reach the 2026 FIFA World Cup final? BUY Yes 8¢ $10 25d
Will Neymar play in the World Cup? BUY No 12¢ $2 25d
Will Neymar play in the World Cup? BUY No 12¢ $1 25d
Will Ivory Coast win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 0¢ $5 25d
Will Croatia win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 1¢ $10 25d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $176.89 · official $176.95 (match) · 133 history records