Wallet analysis

2026-06-22T01:51:15+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.5
score
FE 0xfe54…41d6 sports 5 markets active 18h ago coverage 544d
RISKYcopy with care sports specialist⚠ Small sample
✗ too few resolved markets (<12) to judge✗ negative after realistic slippage
Total PnL +$25,151 (+82%) realized +$25,151 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -48% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -58% what you keep after slip
Net edge-58%after slip
Net WR20%break-even
Win rate20%1W / 4L
Drawdown11%max
Avg bet$6,141per market
Trades / day0.2pace
Fees−$415est.
Kalshi-fit80%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 544d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 100% +$24,893
other 0% −$129
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
insufficient sample — too few resolved markets to judge
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +20%
net ROI/market (all)-53.1%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 1 +99.5% +80.5% 100% 100% +80.5%
≤30d 1 +99.5% +80.5% 100% 100% +80.5%
≤90d 1 +99.5% +80.5% 100% 100% +80.5%
all 5 -48.2% -53.1% 20% 20% +63.5%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.2 tr/day
realistic slip~10%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -53.1% 20% +63.5%
10% ← realistic here -57.6% 20% +47.9%
15% -61.7% 20% +33.6%
20% -65.4% 20% +20.5%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 100% · top 2 100% thin sample
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +100% too few recent
Fragile wins
0% wins margin < slip thin sample
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -48% · $-wt +81% edge needs big-bet sizing — not flat-copyable
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early —% → late —% no data
Add-ons / DCA
16.2 add-ons/market averages down — deposit killer
Win / loss size
+$27,597 vs −$708 · ×38.97 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×9.74 per $1 lost it wins $9.74
Copy size
≥ $700 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

544d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized+$25,151
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)20%
Wins / losses1 / 4
Est. fees paid−$415
Open positions0
Markets (closed)5 / 5
History coverage544d
Avg bet$6,141
Trades / day0.2
Drawdown11%
Kalshi-fit80%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 5 Trades
no open positions (3 resolved losses — in realized PnL)
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Cincinnati Reds vs. New York Yankees Jun 22 $27,737 +$27,597 +100%
Will Josh Allen win NFL MVP for the 2024-25 season? Jan 02 $1,433 −$1,400 -98%
Will another player win NFL MVP for the 2024-2025 season? Jan 02 $168 −$68 -40%
Will Joe Burrow win NFL MVP for the 2024-25 season? Jan 02 $1,236 −$1,236 -100%
Will the Bengals win Super Bowl 2025? Dec 29 $129 −$129 -100%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Cincinnati Reds vs. New York Yankees BUY Cincinnati Reds 50¢ $33 18h
Cincinnati Reds vs. New York Yankees BUY Cincinnati Reds 50¢ $9,936 18h
Cincinnati Reds vs. New York Yankees BUY Cincinnati Reds 50¢ $7,613 18h
Cincinnati Reds vs. New York Yankees BUY Cincinnati Reds 49¢ $5,076 18h
Cincinnati Reds vs. New York Yankees BUY Cincinnati Reds 48¢ $5,077 18h
Will Josh Allen win NFL MVP for the 2024-25 season? BUY No 28¢ $28 536d
Will Josh Allen win NFL MVP for the 2024-25 season? BUY No 25¢ $180 536d
Will another player win NFL MVP for the 2024-2025 season? SELL Yes 2¢ $37 536d
Will Joe Burrow win NFL MVP for the 2024-25 season? BUY Yes 5¢ $10 536d
Will Joe Burrow win NFL MVP for the 2024-25 season? BUY Yes 5¢ $12 536d
Will Joe Burrow win NFL MVP for the 2024-25 season? BUY Yes 4¢ $7 536d
Will Joe Burrow win NFL MVP for the 2024-25 season? BUY Yes 4¢ $20 536d
Will Josh Allen win NFL MVP for the 2024-25 season? BUY No 23¢ $54 536d
Will Joe Burrow win NFL MVP for the 2024-25 season? BUY Yes 5¢ $40 538d
Will Joe Burrow win NFL MVP for the 2024-25 season? BUY Yes 5¢ $40 538d
Will Josh Allen win NFL MVP for the 2024-25 season? BUY No 27¢ $52 538d
Will Joe Burrow win NFL MVP for the 2024-25 season? BUY Yes 4¢ $40 538d
Will Joe Burrow win NFL MVP for the 2024-25 season? BUY Yes 3¢ $10 538d
Will another player win NFL MVP for the 2024-2025 season? SELL Yes 2¢ $1 538d
Will another player win NFL MVP for the 2024-2025 season? SELL Yes 3¢ $35 538d
Will another player win NFL MVP for the 2024-2025 season? SELL Yes 3¢ $0 538d
Will the Bengals win Super Bowl 2025? BUY Yes 2¢ $21 539d
Will the Bengals win Super Bowl 2025? BUY Yes 1¢ $69 539d
Will the Bengals win Super Bowl 2025? BUY Yes 1¢ $39 539d
Will Joe Burrow win NFL MVP for the 2024-25 season? BUY Yes 8¢ $15 539d
Will Josh Allen win NFL MVP for the 2024-25 season? BUY No 46¢ $25 539d
Will Joe Burrow win NFL MVP for the 2024-25 season? BUY Yes 7¢ $114 539d
Will Josh Allen win NFL MVP for the 2024-25 season? BUY No 45¢ $9 539d
Will Josh Allen win NFL MVP for the 2024-25 season? BUY No 44¢ $9 539d
Will Josh Allen win NFL MVP for the 2024-25 season? BUY No 34¢ $186 539d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 94 history records