trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?
| timeframe | markets | gross ROI | NET ROI | gross WR | NET WR | net PnL (wtd) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| ≤7d | 9 | -0.1% | -9.7% | 0% | 0% | -9.7% |
| ≤30d | 9 | -0.1% | -9.7% | 0% | 0% | -9.7% |
| ≤90d | 9 | -0.1% | -9.7% | 0% | 0% | -9.7% |
| all | 39 | -15.8% | -23.8% | 28% | 28% | -13.6% |
| copier slippage | NET ROI | NET WR | net PnL (wtd) |
|---|---|---|---|
| 5% ideal ← realistic here | -23.8% | 28% | -13.6% |
| 10% | -31.1% | 28% | -21.9% |
| 15% | -37.8% | 28% | -29.4% |
| 20% | -43.9% | 28% | -36.3% |
| Market | outcome | entry | now | invested | value | unrealized PnL |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Will Tim Walz win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? | No | 99¢ | 99¢ | $530 | $530 | −$0 (-0%) |
| Will Graham Platner win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? | No | 99¢ | 99¢ | $210 | $210 | −$0 (-0%) |
| Will Kim Kardashian win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? | No | 99¢ | 99¢ | $160 | $160 | −$0 (-0%) |
| Market | when | invested | PnL | ROI |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Will Gabriel Bortoleto be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? | Jun 17 | $150 | $0 | -0% |
| Will Valtteri Bottas be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? | Jun 17 | $210 | $0 | -0% |
| Will Arvid Lindblad be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? | Jun 17 | $540 | −$1 | -0% |
| Will François Bayrou win the 2027 French presidential election? | Jun 16 | $160 | $0 | -0% |
| Will Clémence Guetté win the 2027 French presidential election? | Jun 16 | $230 | $0 | -0% |
| Will Olivier Faure win the 2027 French presidential election? | Jun 16 | $510 | −$1 | -0% |
| Will Kim Kardashian win the 2028 US Presidential Election? | Jun 16 | $160 | $0 | -0% |
| Will Pete Hegseth win the 2028 US Presidential Election? | Jun 16 | $240 | $0 | -0% |
| Will Tim Walz win the 2028 US Presidential Election? | Jun 16 | $500 | −$1 | -0% |
| Suns vs. Mavericks | Nov 12 | $7 | −$7 | -100% |
| Hornets vs. Pelicans | Nov 04 | $12 | −$12 | -100% |
| LoL: Anyone's Legend vs T1 (BO5) | Nov 03 | $7 | +$8 | +108% |
| Hurricanes vs. Golden Knights | Oct 20 | $25 | −$25 | -100% |
| Brewers vs. Dodgers | Oct 20 | $21 | +$12 | +56% |
| Capitals vs. Rangers | Oct 16 | $8 | +$7 | +96% |
| Orioles vs. Yankees | Sep 26 | $11 | −$11 | -100% |
| Astros vs. Athletics | Sep 26 | $9 | +$8 | +89% |
| Rays vs. Orioles | Sep 25 | $10 | +$10 | +100% |
| Cubs vs. Pirates | Sep 23 | $2 | +$2 | +82% |
| Pirates vs. Orioles | Sep 15 | $2 | +$2 | +75% |
| Boise State vs. South Florida | Aug 28 | $4 | −$4 | -100% |
| Falcons vs. Cowboys | Aug 22 | $13 | −$13 | -100% |
| Pirates vs. Brewers | Aug 13 | $15 | −$15 | -100% |
| Twins vs. Yankees | Aug 12 | $19 | +$11 | +56% |
| Will Maria Konnikova win the 2025 National Heads-Up Poker Championship | Aug 07 | $1 | −$1 | -100% |
| Twins vs. Tigers | Aug 06 | $6 | +$4 | +61% |
| Diamondbacks vs. Tigers | Aug 04 | $6 | +$5 | +79% |
| Panthers vs. Hurricanes | May 19 | $4 | −$4 | -100% |
| Will Marcel Ciolacu win the 2024 Romanian Presidential election? | May 12 | $1 | −$1 | -100% |
| Will the New York Rangers win the 2025 President’s Trophy? | May 12 | $1 | −$1 | -100% |
| Will the Anaheim Ducks win the 2025 President’s Trophy? | May 12 | $1 | −$1 | -100% |
| Will Czechia win Eurovision 2025? | May 08 | $6 | $0 | -1% |
| Will the Oklahoma City Thunder win the 2025 NBA Finals? | Apr 17 | $8 | $0 | -2% |
| Will Bayern Munich win the UEFA Champions League? | Apr 09 | $5 | $0 | -1% |
| Will Pierre Poilievre be the next Canadian Prime Minister? | Apr 07 | $4 | $0 | +0% |
| Kings vs. Trail Blazers | Feb 07 | $103 | −$103 | -100% |
| Heat vs. 76ers | Feb 06 | $103 | −$103 | -100% |
| Mavericks vs. 76ers | Feb 05 | $118 | +$101 | +85% |
| Pacers vs. Bucks | Dec 18 | $10 | −$10 | -100% |