Wallet analysis

2026-06-27T12:44:16+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
FE 0xfe4d…f0a0 crypto 65 markets active 2h ago coverage 81d
TRAPdo not copy crypto specialistFading edge
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ profit hinges on one bet (luck, not edge)
Total PnL +$704 (+26%) realized +$706 · open −$2
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -2% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -11% what you keep after slip
Net edge-11%after slip
Net WR24%break-even
Win rate30%19W / 44L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$42per market
Trades / day1.2pace
Kalshi-fit86%portable
Net worth$31now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$30
7 days+$14
14 days+$14
30 days+$14
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 90% +$157
other 6% +$8
politics 2% −$32
world 1% +$323
finance 1% −$20
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +24%
net ROI/market (all)-11.2%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 3 -16.1% -24.1% 33% 33% +1.8%
≤30d 3 -16.1% -24.1% 33% 33% +1.8%
≤90d 63 -1.9% -11.2% 30% 24% +4.8%
all 63 -1.9% -11.2% 30% 24% +4.8%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover1.2 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -11.2% 24% +4.8%
10% -19.7% 22% -5.2%
15% -27.5% 16% -14.4%
20% -34.6% 16% -22.8%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 52% · top 2 71% profit hinges on 1 bet — luck, not edge
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +17% fresh edge ✓
Fragile wins
21% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -2% · $-wt +17% edge needs big-bet sizing — not flat-copyable
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +58% → late -59% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
1.2 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$64 vs −$18 · ×3.6 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×1.56 per $1 lost it wins $1.56
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

81d coverage
Net worth$31
Realized+$706
Unrealized−$2
Win rate (resolved)30%
Wins / losses19 / 44
Open positions2
Markets (closed)63 / 65
History coverage81d
Avg bet$42
Trades / day1.2
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit86%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 2 History 63 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Norway win on 2026-06-30? Yes 49¢ 48¢ $30 $29 −$1 (-3%)
Will Norway win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 3¢ 2¢ $3 $2 −$1 (-21%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 39 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Curaçao win on 2026-06-25? Jun 25 $31 −$30 -97%
Will Norway win on 2026-06-26? Jun 23 $34 −$33 -98%
Will Norway win on 2026-06-22? Jun 23 $51 +$77 +152%
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of April? Apr 30 $5 −$5 -100%
Will the US confirm that aliens exist by April 30? Apr 30 $5 −$5 -95%
Will Trump say "MAGA" or "Make America Great Again" during Fox intervi Apr 15 $5 +$2 +32%
Will Trump say "Mine" during Fox interview on Wednesday? Apr 15 $5 +$1 +24%
Will Trump say "Hottest" during Fox interview on Wednesday? Apr 15 $5 +$5 +102%
Will Starmer say "Urgent" during the next Prime Minister's Questions e Apr 15 $5 −$5 -100%
Will Starmer say "U-Turn" during the next Prime Minister's Questions e Apr 15 $10 −$10 -100%
Will Starmer say "Thank you" 10+ times during the next Prime Minister' Apr 15 $5 −$5 -100%
Will Starmer say "Epstein" during the next Prime Minister's Questions Apr 15 $5 −$5 -100%
Will Trump say "Million" or "Billion" or "Trillion" 12+ times during F Apr 15 $5 −$5 -100%
Will Trump say "Tax" or "Tariff" 5+ times during Fox interview on Wedn Apr 15 $5 −$5 -100%
Will Trump say "Dow" or "S&P" during Fox interview on Wednesday? Apr 15 $5 −$5 -100%
Will Trump say "Greatest Military" during Fox interview on Wednesday? Apr 15 $5 −$5 -100%
Will Rory McIlroy win the 2026 Masters tournament? Apr 15 $10 +$7 +72%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 12, 4:45PM-4:50PM ET Apr 12 $20 −$19 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 11, 4:10PM-4:15PM ET Apr 11 $10 −$9 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 11, 4:05PM-4:10PM ET Apr 11 $1 −$1 -93%
Will Hao-Tong Li win the 2026 Masters tournament? Apr 11 $2 −$2 -100%
Will "Crazy" be said 15+ times during the first episode of the Joe Rog Apr 11 $5 −$5 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 9, 4:00PM-4:05PM ET Apr 09 $300 +$634 +211%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 9, 3:55PM-4:00PM ET Apr 09 $102 −$96 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 9, 3:50PM-3:55PM ET Apr 09 $1 −$1 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 9, 3:35PM-3:40PM ET Apr 09 $100 −$95 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 9, 3:30PM-3:35PM ET Apr 09 $50 −$47 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 9, 3:25PM-3:30PM ET Apr 09 $50 −$48 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 9, 3:20PM-3:25PM ET Apr 09 $50 −$47 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 9, 3:15PM-3:20PM ET Apr 09 $150 −$47 -31%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 9, 3:10PM-3:15PM ET Apr 09 $67 −$63 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 9, 3:00PM-3:05PM ET Apr 09 $486 $0 -0%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 9, 2:00PM-2:05PM ET Apr 09 $15 −$14 -93%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 9, 1:55PM-2:00PM ET Apr 09 $23 −$22 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 9, 1:50PM-1:55PM ET Apr 09 $15 −$14 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 9, 1:45PM-1:50PM ET Apr 09 $20 −$5 -24%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 9, 1:40PM-1:45PM ET Apr 09 $15 +$22 +149%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 9, 1:35PM-1:40PM ET Apr 09 $14 −$13 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 9, 1:30PM-1:35PM ET Apr 09 $15 −$14 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 9, 11:40AM-11:45AM ET Apr 09 $5 −$5 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 9, 11:35AM-11:40AM ET Apr 09 $6 −$6 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 9, 11:25AM-11:30AM ET Apr 09 $4 −$4 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 9, 11:00AM-11:05AM ET Apr 09 $10 −$10 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 9, 10:55AM-11:00AM ET Apr 09 $10 +$2 +21%
US x Iran ceasefire by April 15? Apr 07 $20 +$94 +471%
US x Iran ceasefire by April 7? Apr 07 $10 +$233 +2334%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 7, 1:35PM-1:40PM ET Apr 07 $1 −$1 -93%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 7, 12:10PM-12:15PM ET Apr 07 $2 −$2 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 7, 12:05PM-12:10PM ET Apr 07 $3 −$3 -93%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 7, 12:00PM-12:05PM ET Apr 07 $1 −$1 -93%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Norway win on 2026-06-30? BUY Yes 49¢ $30 1h
Will Curaçao win on 2026-06-25? BUY Yes 6¢ $31 42h
Will Norway win on 2026-06-26? BUY Yes 19¢ $20 3d
Will Norway win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 3¢ $3 3d
Will Norway win on 2026-06-26? BUY Yes 19¢ $13 3d
Will Norway win on 2026-06-22? BUY Yes 39¢ $51 4d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of April? SELL Yes 0¢ $0 57d
Will the US confirm that aliens exist by April 30? SELL Yes 0¢ $0 57d
Will the US confirm that aliens exist by April 30? BUY Yes 2¢ $5 69d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of April? BUY Yes 27¢ $5 69d
Will Trump say "MAGA" or "Make America Great Again" during Fox intervi SELL No 66¢ $7 72d
Will Trump say "Mine" during Fox interview on Wednesday? SELL No 46¢ $6 72d
Will Trump say "Hottest" during Fox interview on Wednesday? SELL No 91¢ $10 72d
Will Starmer say "Urgent" during the next Prime Minister's Questions e BUY Yes 27¢ $5 73d
Will Starmer say "U-Turn" during the next Prime Minister's Questions e BUY No 57¢ $10 73d
Will Starmer say "Thank you" 10+ times during the next Prime Minister' BUY Yes 12¢ $5 73d
Will Starmer say "Epstein" during the next Prime Minister's Questions BUY Yes 11¢ $5 73d
Will Trump say "Million" or "Billion" or "Trillion" 12+ times during F BUY No 42¢ $5 73d
Will Trump say "MAGA" or "Make America Great Again" during Fox intervi BUY No 50¢ $5 73d
Will Trump say "Hottest" during Fox interview on Wednesday? BUY No 45¢ $5 73d
Will Trump say "Tax" or "Tariff" 5+ times during Fox interview on Wedn BUY No 27¢ $5 73d
Will Trump say "Dow" or "S&P" during Fox interview on Wednesday? BUY No 33¢ $5 73d
Will Trump say "Greatest Military" during Fox interview on Wednesday? BUY No 28¢ $5 73d
Will Trump say "Mine" during Fox interview on Wednesday? BUY No 37¢ $5 73d
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 12, 4:45PM-4:50PM ET BUY Up 26¢ $20 75d
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 11, 4:10PM-4:15PM ET BUY Up 29¢ $10 76d
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 11, 4:05PM-4:10PM ET BUY Down 5¢ $1 76d
Will Rory McIlroy win the 2026 Masters tournament? BUY Yes 58¢ $10 76d
Will Hao-Tong Li win the 2026 Masters tournament? BUY Yes 5¢ $2 76d
Will "Crazy" be said 15+ times during the first episode of the Joe Rog BUY No 15¢ $5 76d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $31.45 · official $31.45 (match) · 106 history records