Wallet analysis

2026-06-17T08:58:01+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
FE 0xfe4c…3d14 crypto 1225 markets active 6d ago coverage 166d ⚠
TRAPdo not copy crypto specialist⚠ High turnover⚠ Covers last 165d only
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage! high turnover
Total PnL −$194 (-1%) realized −$194 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -1% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -17% what you keep after slip
Net edge-17%after slip
Net WR3%break-even
Win rate93%1142W / 83L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$14per market
Trades / day12.5pace
Kalshi-fit99%portable
Net worth$10now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days$0
7 days−$29
14 days−$206
30 days−$198
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 98% −$285
other 1% +$20
tech 0% +$1
sports 0% +$8
world 0% +$3
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +3%
net ROI/market (all)-10.2%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 346 -0.5% -9.9% 98% 1% -10.3%
≤30d 982 -2.0% -11.3% 96% 1% -11.2%
≤90d 1015 -1.8% -11.2% 96% 1% -11.0%
all 1225 -0.8% -10.2% 93% 3% -10.8%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover12.5 tr/day
realistic slip~9%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -10.2% 3% -10.8%
10% -18.8% 1% -19.4%
15% -26.7% 1% -27.2%
20% -33.9% 1% -34.3%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 5% · top 2 9% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -2% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
96% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -1% · $-wt -2% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -1% → late -0% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.6 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$0 vs −$9 · ×0.04 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.64 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

166d coverage
Net worth$10
Realized−$194
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)93%
Wins / losses1142 / 83
Open positions0
Markets (closed)1225 / 1225
History coverage166d ⚠
Avg bet$14
Trades / day12.5
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit99%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 1225 Trades
no open positions (13 resolved losses — in realized PnL)
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 2:50PM-2:55PM ET Jun 11 $10 −$10 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 2:45PM-2:50PM ET Jun 11 $10 $0 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 2:40PM-2:45PM ET Jun 11 $10 $0 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 2:35PM-2:40PM ET Jun 11 $10 $0 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 2:30PM-2:35PM ET Jun 11 $10 $0 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 2:20PM-2:25PM ET Jun 11 $10 $0 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 2:15PM-2:20PM ET Jun 11 $10 $0 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 2:10PM-2:15PM ET Jun 11 $10 $0 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 2:05PM-2:10PM ET Jun 11 $10 $0 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 1:55PM-2:00PM ET Jun 11 $10 $0 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 1:50PM-1:55PM ET Jun 11 $10 $0 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 1:40PM-1:45PM ET Jun 11 $10 $0 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 1:35PM-1:40PM ET Jun 11 $10 $0 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 1:30PM-1:35PM ET Jun 11 $20 −$10 -51%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 1:25PM-1:30PM ET Jun 11 $10 $0 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 1:20PM-1:25PM ET Jun 11 $10 $0 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 1:15PM-1:20PM ET Jun 11 $10 $0 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 1:10PM-1:15PM ET Jun 11 $10 $0 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 1:05PM-1:10PM ET Jun 11 $10 $0 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 1:00PM-1:05PM ET Jun 11 $10 $0 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 12:55PM-1:00PM ET Jun 11 $10 $0 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 12:45PM-12:50PM ET Jun 11 $10 $0 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 12:40PM-12:45PM ET Jun 11 $10 $0 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 12:35PM-12:40PM ET Jun 11 $10 $0 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 12:30PM-12:35PM ET Jun 11 $10 $0 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 12:25PM-12:30PM ET Jun 11 $10 $0 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 12:20PM-12:25PM ET Jun 11 $10 $0 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 12:15PM-12:20PM ET Jun 11 $10 $0 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 12:10PM-12:15PM ET Jun 11 $10 $0 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 12:05PM-12:10PM ET Jun 11 $10 $0 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 12:00PM-12:05PM ET Jun 11 $10 $0 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 11:55AM-12:00PM ET Jun 11 $10 $0 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 11:45AM-11:50AM ET Jun 11 $10 $0 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 11:40AM-11:45AM ET Jun 11 $10 $0 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 11:35AM-11:40AM ET Jun 11 $10 $0 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 11:25AM-11:30AM ET Jun 11 $10 $0 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 11:20AM-11:25AM ET Jun 11 $10 $0 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 11:15AM-11:20AM ET Jun 11 $10 $0 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 11:10AM-11:15AM ET Jun 11 $10 $0 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 11:05AM-11:10AM ET Jun 11 $10 $0 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 11:00AM-11:05AM ET Jun 11 $10 $0 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 10:50AM-10:55AM ET Jun 11 $10 $0 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 10:45AM-10:50AM ET Jun 11 $10 $0 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 10:40AM-10:45AM ET Jun 11 $10 $0 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 10:30AM-10:35AM ET Jun 11 $10 $0 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 10:25AM-10:30AM ET Jun 11 $10 $0 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 10:20AM-10:25AM ET Jun 11 $10 $0 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 10:10AM-10:15AM ET Jun 11 $10 $0 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 10:05AM-10:10AM ET Jun 11 $10 $0 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 9:55AM-10:00AM ET Jun 11 $10 $0 +1%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 2:50PM-2:55PM ET BUY Up 98¢ $10 5d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 2:45PM-2:50PM ET BUY Down 99¢ $10 5d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 2:40PM-2:45PM ET BUY Up 99¢ $10 5d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 2:35PM-2:40PM ET BUY Up 99¢ $10 5d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 2:30PM-2:35PM ET BUY Up 99¢ $10 5d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 2:20PM-2:25PM ET BUY Down 99¢ $10 5d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 2:15PM-2:20PM ET BUY Up 99¢ $10 5d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 2:10PM-2:15PM ET BUY Up 99¢ $10 5d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 2:05PM-2:10PM ET BUY Down 99¢ $10 5d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 1:55PM-2:00PM ET BUY Up 99¢ $10 5d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 1:50PM-1:55PM ET BUY Down 99¢ $10 5d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 1:40PM-1:45PM ET BUY Up 99¢ $10 5d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 1:35PM-1:40PM ET BUY Down 99¢ $10 5d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 1:30PM-1:35PM ET BUY Up 99¢ $10 5d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 1:30PM-1:35PM ET BUY Down 43¢ $10 5d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 1:25PM-1:30PM ET BUY Up 99¢ $10 5d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 1:20PM-1:25PM ET BUY Up 99¢ $10 5d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 1:15PM-1:20PM ET BUY Down 99¢ $1 5d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 1:15PM-1:20PM ET BUY Down 99¢ $9 5d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 1:10PM-1:15PM ET BUY Down 99¢ $10 5d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 1:05PM-1:10PM ET BUY Up 99¢ $10 5d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 1:00PM-1:05PM ET BUY Down 99¢ $10 5d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 12:55PM-1:00PM ET BUY Down 99¢ $7 5d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 12:55PM-1:00PM ET BUY Down 99¢ $3 5d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 12:45PM-12:50PM ET BUY Down 99¢ $10 5d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 12:40PM-12:45PM ET BUY Down 99¢ $10 5d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 12:35PM-12:40PM ET BUY Up 99¢ $10 5d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 12:30PM-12:35PM ET BUY Up 99¢ $10 5d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 12:25PM-12:30PM ET BUY Up 99¢ $10 5d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 12:20PM-12:25PM ET BUY Down 99¢ $10 5d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $10.00 · official $10.00 (match) · 3500 history records