Wallet analysis

2026-06-26T15:24:26+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.5
score
FE 0xfe4c…3b6e crypto 183 markets active 6d ago coverage 22d
BOTnot copyable crypto specialistFresh edge⚠ High turnover
✗ bot/MM pace (137 trades/day) — uncopyable
Total PnL +$62,231 (+29%) realized +$62,231 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +74% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt +28% what you keep after slip
Net edge+28%after slip
Net WR60%break-even
Win rate61%111W / 72L
Whale WR54%big bets
Drawdown16%max
Avg bet$1,175per market
Trades / day136.9pace
Kalshi-fit100%portable
Net worth$1now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days$0
7 days+$24,748
14 days+$23,387
30 days+$57,061
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 100% +$57,061
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
uncopyable — bot pace (137 trades/day)
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +60%
net ROI/market (all)+57.1%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 83 +101.2% +82.0% 58% 58% +16.2%
≤30d 183 +73.6% +57.1% 61% 60% +13.9%
≤90d 183 +73.6% +57.1% 61% 60% +13.9%
all 183 +73.6% +57.1% 61% 60% +13.9%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover136.9 tr/day
realistic slip~15%
edge survives to20%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal +57.1% 60% +13.9%
10% +42.1% 58% +3.0%
15% ← realistic here +28.3% 57% -6.9%
20% +15.8% 55% -16.1%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 3% · top 2 5% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +27% fresh edge ✓
Fragile wins
1% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +74% · $-wt +27% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 54% (≥$1,422) neutral
Persistence
early +58% → late +89% edge persists early→late
Add-ons / DCA
12.7 add-ons/market averages down — deposit killer
Win / loss size
+$1,224 vs −$1,094 · ×1.12 wins ≈ losses
Profit factor
×1.72 per $1 lost it wins $1.72
Copy size
≥ $700 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

22d coverage
Net worth$1
Realized+$62,231
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)61%
Wins / losses111 / 72
Whale WR (big bets)54%
Open positions0
Markets (closed)183 / 183
History coverage22d
Avg bet$1,175
Trades / day136.9
Drawdown16%
Kalshi-fit100%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 183 Trades
no open positions (65 resolved losses — in realized PnL)
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 8:40PM-8:45PM ET Jun 21 $797 −$648 -81%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 8:30PM-8:45PM ET Jun 21 $300 −$39 -13%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 8:35PM-8:40PM ET Jun 21 $515 +$525 +102%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 8:30PM-8:35PM ET Jun 21 $654 +$486 +74%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 8:25PM-8:30PM ET Jun 21 $509 +$421 +83%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 8:15PM-8:30PM ET Jun 21 $413 +$837 +202%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 8:15PM-8:20PM ET Jun 21 $1,392 −$1,392 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 8:20PM-8:25PM ET Jun 21 $150 +$118 +79%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 8:10PM-8:15PM ET Jun 21 $1,226 +$972 +79%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 8:00PM-8:15PM ET Jun 21 $508 −$483 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 7:55PM-8:00PM ET Jun 20 $2,476 −$2,394 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 7:50PM-7:55PM ET Jun 20 $1,460 +$2,649 +181%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 7:40PM-7:45PM ET Jun 20 $1,401 +$2,044 +146%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 7:45PM-7:50PM ET Jun 20 $708 −$682 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 7:30PM-7:45PM ET Jun 20 $416 +$113 +27%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 7:30PM-7:35PM ET Jun 20 $759 +$1,190 +157%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 7:35PM-7:40PM ET Jun 20 $648 −$626 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 7:25PM-7:30PM ET Jun 20 $355 −$340 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 7:10PM-7:15PM ET Jun 20 $562 −$161 -29%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 7:05PM-7:10PM ET Jun 20 $1,571 +$1,668 +106%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 7:00PM-7:05PM ET Jun 20 $1,364 +$982 +72%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 6:45PM-6:50PM ET Jun 20 $795 +$699 +88%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 6:50PM-6:55PM ET Jun 20 $2,015 −$1,960 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 6:40PM-6:45PM ET Jun 20 $275 +$210 +76%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 6:30PM-6:45PM ET Jun 20 $525 −$497 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 6:35PM-6:40PM ET Jun 20 $796 −$505 -64%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 6:30PM-6:35PM ET Jun 20 $159 +$232 +146%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 6:25PM-6:30PM ET Jun 20 $894 +$1,629 +182%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 6:15PM-6:30PM ET Jun 20 $1,369 +$2,409 +176%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 6:20PM-6:25PM ET Jun 20 $1,012 +$1,074 +106%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 6:10PM-6:15PM ET Jun 20 $916 +$1,273 +139%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 6:15PM-6:20PM ET Jun 20 $413 −$211 -51%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 6:05PM-6:10PM ET Jun 20 $778 +$1,451 +187%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 6:00PM-6:05PM ET Jun 20 $258 +$748 +290%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 5:25PM-5:30PM ET Jun 20 $885 −$845 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 5:20PM-5:25PM ET Jun 20 $817 +$1,281 +157%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 5:15PM-5:20PM ET Jun 20 $1,883 −$1,814 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 5:05PM-5:10PM ET Jun 20 $848 +$705 +83%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 5:00PM-5:05PM ET Jun 20 $541 +$711 +131%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 4:55PM-5:00PM ET Jun 20 $1,239 +$1,013 +82%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 11:55PM-12:00AM ET Jun 20 $995 +$1,388 +140%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 11:45PM-12:00AM ET Jun 20 $812 −$782 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 11:50PM-11:55PM ET Jun 20 $1,401 −$926 -66%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 11:45PM-11:50PM ET Jun 20 $1,291 +$1,759 +136%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 11:40PM-11:45PM ET Jun 20 $700 +$1,691 +242%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 11:30PM-11:45PM ET Jun 20 $143 −$18 -12%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 11:35PM-11:40PM ET Jun 20 $1,017 −$979 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 11:30PM-11:35PM ET Jun 20 $1,052 +$1,532 +146%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 11:25PM-11:30PM ET Jun 20 $1,444 −$1,406 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 11:20PM-11:25PM ET Jun 20 $382 −$371 -97%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 8:40PM-8:45PM ET SELL Up 14¢ $112 5d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 8:30PM-8:45PM ET SELL Down 26¢ $4 5d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 8:30PM-8:45PM ET SELL Down 30¢ $257 5d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 8:40PM-8:45PM ET BUY Up 43¢ $528 5d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 8:40PM-8:45PM ET BUY Up 46¢ $263 5d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 8:40PM-8:45PM ET BUY Up 47¢ $6 5d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 8:30PM-8:45PM ET BUY Down 31¢ $298 5d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 8:30PM-8:45PM ET BUY Down 33¢ $0 5d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 8:30PM-8:45PM ET BUY Down 33¢ $2 5d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 8:35PM-8:40PM ET SELL Up 97¢ $1,040 5d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 8:35PM-8:40PM ET BUY Up 46¢ $515 5d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 8:30PM-8:35PM ET BUY Up 60¢ $30 5d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 8:30PM-8:35PM ET BUY Up 63¢ $33 5d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 8:30PM-8:35PM ET BUY Up 59¢ $9 5d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 8:30PM-8:35PM ET BUY Up 59¢ $3 5d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 8:30PM-8:35PM ET BUY Up 59¢ $8 5d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 8:30PM-8:35PM ET BUY Up 59¢ $19 5d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 8:30PM-8:35PM ET BUY Up 59¢ $15 5d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 8:30PM-8:35PM ET BUY Up 59¢ $35 5d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 8:30PM-8:35PM ET BUY Up 59¢ $24 5d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 8:30PM-8:35PM ET BUY Up 59¢ $6 5d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 8:30PM-8:35PM ET BUY Up 59¢ $4 5d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 8:30PM-8:35PM ET BUY Up 57¢ $213 5d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 8:30PM-8:35PM ET BUY Up 59¢ $18 5d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 8:30PM-8:35PM ET BUY Up 59¢ $12 5d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 8:30PM-8:35PM ET BUY Up 52¢ $215 5d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 8:30PM-8:35PM ET BUY Up 53¢ $8 5d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 8:30PM-8:35PM ET BUY Up 53¢ $3 5d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 8:15PM-8:30PM ET BUY Up 39¢ $10 5d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 8:15PM-8:30PM ET BUY Up 39¢ $3 5d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.73 · official $0.00 (match) · 3112 history records