Wallet analysis

2026-06-17T06:47:50+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
FE 0xfe47…3198 crypto 307 markets active 1h ago coverage 114d
TRAPdo not copy crypto specialistFading edge
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died
Total PnL −$183 (-6%) realized −$182 · open −$1
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -10% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -22% what you keep after slip
Net edge-22%after slip
Net WR30%break-even
Win rate30%91W / 210L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$11per market
Trades / day4.1pace
Fees−$8est.
Kalshi-fit77%portable
Net worth$47now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$203
7 days+$146
14 days+$146
30 days−$278
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 76% −$256
other 16% +$122
sports 6% +$34
world 1% −$29
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +30%
net ROI/market (all)-18.8%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 83 +13.2% +2.5% 17% 17% -0.7%
≤30d 148 -27.7% -34.5% 12% 11% -36.7%
≤90d 162 -27.8% -34.6% 13% 12% -35.6%
all 301 -10.2% -18.8% 30% 30% -15.5%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover4.1 tr/day
realistic slip~7%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -18.8% 30% -15.5%
10% -26.5% 28% -23.5%
15% -33.6% 25% -30.9%
20% -40.1% 21% -37.7%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 13% · top 2 20% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -22% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
2% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -10% · $-wt -4% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +7% → late -27% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
1.3 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$16 vs −$7 · ×2.12 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×0.92 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

114d coverage
Net worth$47
Realized−$182
Unrealized−$1
Win rate (resolved)30%
Wins / losses91 / 210
Est. fees paid−$8
Open positions6
Markets (closed)301 / 307
History coverage114d
Avg bet$11
Trades / day4.1
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit77%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 6 History 301 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Exact Score: Portugal 2 - 1 DR Congo? Yes 10¢ 10¢ $15 $16 +$1 (+5%)
Exact Score: Portugal 3 - 0 DR Congo? Yes 13¢ 12¢ $10 $10 −$0 (-4%)
Exact Score: Portugal 1 - 1 DR Congo? Yes 9¢ 8¢ $8 $8 −$0 (-6%)
Exact Score: Portugal 3 - 2 DR Congo? Yes 2¢ 2¢ $5 $5 +$0 (+4%)
Exact Score: Portugal 3 - 1 DR Congo? Yes 9¢ 8¢ $5 $4 −$1 (-11%)
Exact Score: Portugal 2 - 2 DR Congo? Yes 3¢ 3¢ $5 $4 −$1 (-13%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 62 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Exact Score: Austria 3 - 1 Jordan? Jun 17 $15 +$16 +106%
Exact Score: Austria 2 - 2 Jordan? Jun 17 $15 +$3 +18%
Will Austria vs. Jordan end in a draw? Jun 17 $61 +$57 +94%
Exact Score: Austria 2 - 1 Jordan? Jun 17 $21 +$27 +134%
Exact Score: Austria 3 - 2 Jordan? Jun 17 $5 −$1 -18%
Exact Score: Austria 0 - 0 Jordan? Jun 17 $5 −$5 -97%
Exact Score: Austria 0 - 1 Jordan? Jun 17 $10 −$10 -97%
Exact Score: Austria 3 - 0 Jordan? Jun 17 $5 −$5 -97%
Exact Score: Argentina 3 - 0 Algeria? Jun 17 $10 +$90 +873%
Exact Score: Any Other Score? Jun 17 $25 −$25 -98%
Exact Score: Argentina 3 - 1 Algeria? Jun 17 $5 −$5 -97%
Exact Score: Argentina 2 - 1 Algeria? Jun 17 $18 −$18 -97%
Exact Score: Argentina 1 - 1 Algeria? Jun 16 $10 −$10 -97%
Exact Score: Argentina 2 - 0 Algeria? Jun 16 $21 −$20 -98%
Exact Score: France 3 - 1 Senegal? Jun 16 $5 +$57 +1116%
Exact Score: Iraq 1 - 2 Norway? Jun 16 $13 −$13 -97%
Exact Score: Iraq 2 - 2 Norway? Jun 16 $10 −$10 -97%
Exact Score: Iraq 1 - 1 Norway? Jun 16 $10 −$10 -97%
Exact Score: Iraq 0 - 2 Norway? Jun 16 $10 −$10 -98%
Will Iraq vs. Norway end in a draw? Jun 16 $15 −$15 -98%
Exact Score: France 3 - 0 Senegal? Jun 16 $5 +$4 +69%
Spread: Senegal (-1.5) Jun 16 $8 −$8 -97%
Exact Score: France 1 - 2 Senegal? Jun 16 $5 −$5 -97%
Exact Score: France 0 - 1 Senegal? Jun 16 $5 −$5 -97%
Exact Score: France 0 - 2 Senegal? Jun 16 $10 −$10 -97%
Exact Score: France 1 - 1 Senegal? Jun 16 $5 −$5 -97%
Exact Score: France 2 - 1 Senegal? Jun 16 $5 −$5 -97%
Exact Score: France 2 - 2 Senegal? Jun 16 $5 −$5 -97%
Exact Score: France 0 - 0 Senegal? Jun 16 $5 −$5 -97%
Exact Score: IR Iran 2 - 2 New Zealand? Jun 16 $10 +$1 +12%
Exact Score: IR Iran 1 - 3 New Zealand? Jun 16 $5 −$5 -98%
Exact Score: IR Iran 1 - 1 New Zealand? Jun 16 $5 −$5 -98%
Exact Score: Any Other Score? Jun 16 $5 −$5 -97%
Exact Score: IR Iran 0 - 2 New Zealand? Jun 16 $10 −$10 -97%
Exact Score: IR Iran 0 - 0 New Zealand? Jun 16 $5 −$5 -97%
Spread: New Zealand (-2.5) Jun 16 $5 −$2 -30%
Will Saudi Arabia vs. Uruguay end in a draw? Jun 16 $5 +$10 +194%
Exact Score: Saudi Arabia 1 - 1 Uruguay? Jun 16 $5 +$9 +185%
Exact Score: IR Iran 1 - 0 New Zealand? Jun 15 $5 −$5 -98%
Exact Score: Saudi Arabia 3 - 0 Uruguay? Jun 15 $5 −$5 -97%
Exact Score: Saudi Arabia 2 - 0 Uruguay? Jun 15 $10 −$10 -97%
Exact Score: Saudi Arabia 1 - 3 Uruguay? Jun 15 $5 −$5 -93%
Exact Score: Saudi Arabia 2 - 2 Uruguay? Jun 15 $5 $0 -1%
Exact Score: Saudi Arabia 2 - 1 Uruguay? Jun 15 $5 −$5 -97%
Exact Score: Saudi Arabia 1 - 2 Uruguay? Jun 15 $5 −$5 -97%
Exact Score: Saudi Arabia 1 - 0 Uruguay? Jun 15 $5 −$5 -97%
Exact Score: Saudi Arabia 0 - 0 Uruguay? Jun 15 $5 −$5 -97%
Will Saudi Arabia win on 2026-06-15? Jun 15 $5 −$5 -97%
Exact Score: Belgium 1 - 1 Egypt? Jun 15 $5 +$36 +703%
Spread: Belgium (-2.5) Jun 15 $5 −$5 -97%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Exact Score: Portugal 1 - 1 DR Congo? BUY Yes 9¢ $8 36m
Exact Score: Portugal 3 - 2 DR Congo? BUY Yes 2¢ $5 38m
Exact Score: Portugal 3 - 1 DR Congo? BUY Yes 9¢ $5 44m
Exact Score: Portugal 2 - 1 DR Congo? BUY Yes 10¢ $5 45m
Exact Score: Portugal 2 - 2 DR Congo? BUY Yes 3¢ $5 47m
Exact Score: Portugal 2 - 1 DR Congo? BUY Yes 10¢ $10 49m
Exact Score: Portugal 3 - 0 DR Congo? BUY Yes 13¢ $10 50m
Exact Score: Austria 3 - 1 Jordan? SELL Yes 21¢ $26 58m
Exact Score: Austria 2 - 2 Jordan? SELL Yes 11¢ $7 59m
Exact Score: Austria 3 - 1 Jordan? BUY Yes 8¢ $10 1h
Exact Score: Austria 2 - 2 Jordan? BUY Yes 14¢ $10 1h
Will Austria vs. Jordan end in a draw? SELL Yes 37¢ $119 1h
Will Austria vs. Jordan end in a draw? BUY Yes 18¢ $51 1h
Exact Score: Austria 2 - 1 Jordan? SELL Yes 27¢ $48 1h
Exact Score: Austria 2 - 2 Jordan? SELL Yes 8¢ $11 1h
Exact Score: Austria 3 - 2 Jordan? SELL Yes 2¢ $4 1h
Exact Score: Austria 3 - 1 Jordan? SELL Yes 10¢ $6 1h
Will Austria vs. Jordan end in a draw? BUY Yes 20¢ $10 3h
Exact Score: Austria 3 - 2 Jordan? BUY Yes 2¢ $5 3h
Exact Score: Austria 0 - 0 Jordan? BUY Yes 7¢ $5 3h
Exact Score: Austria 0 - 1 Jordan? BUY Yes 4¢ $5 3h
Exact Score: Austria 2 - 1 Jordan? BUY Yes 11¢ $10 3h
Exact Score: Austria 2 - 1 Jordan? BUY Yes 11¢ $10 3h
Exact Score: Austria 2 - 2 Jordan? BUY Yes 4¢ $5 3h
Exact Score: Austria 3 - 1 Jordan? BUY Yes 8¢ $5 3h
Exact Score: Austria 3 - 0 Jordan? BUY Yes 11¢ $5 3h
Exact Score: Austria 0 - 1 Jordan? BUY Yes 4¢ $5 3h
Exact Score: Argentina 3 - 0 Algeria? SELL Yes 100¢ $100 3h
Exact Score: Any Other Score? BUY Yes 13¢ $25 6h
Exact Score: Argentina 3 - 1 Algeria? BUY Yes 7¢ $5 6h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $46.89 · official $46.62 (match) · 772 history records