Wallet analysis

2026-06-28T08:47:24+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

4.5
score
FE 0xfe45…4b8f world 6 markets active 2h ago coverage 16d
RISKYcopy with care world specialist⚠ Small sample
✗ too few resolved markets (<12) to judge✗ negative after realistic slippage
Total PnL +$18 (+1%) realized +$18 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +2% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -8% what you keep after slip
Net edge-8%after slip
Net WR0%break-even
Win rate33%2W / 4L
Drawdown36%max
Avg bet$241per market
Trades / day0.9pace
Kalshi-fit83%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 16d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

Categories

share · PnL
world 84% −$3
other 16% +$19
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
insufficient sample — too few resolved markets to judge
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +0%
net ROI/market (all)-7.7%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 2 +2.4% -7.3% 50% 0% -7.3%
≤30d 6 +2.0% -7.7% 33% 0% -8.5%
≤90d 6 +2.0% -7.7% 33% 0% -8.5%
all 6 +2.0% -7.7% 33% 0% -8.5%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.9 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -7.7% 0% -8.5%
10% -16.6% 0% -17.3%
15% -24.6% 0% -25.3%
20% -32.0% 0% -32.6%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 83% · top 2 100% thin sample
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +1% too few recent
Fragile wins
100% wins margin < slip thin sample
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +2% · $-wt +1% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early —% → late —% no data
Add-ons / DCA
1.3 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$12 vs −$2 · ×4.76 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×3.17 per $1 lost it wins $3.17
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

16d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized+$18
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)33%
Wins / losses2 / 4
Open positions0
Markets (closed)6 / 6
History coverage16d
Avg bet$241
Trades / day0.9
Drawdown36%
Kalshi-fit83%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 6 Trades
no open positions
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Russia capture all of Huliaipole by June 30? Jun 28 $47 +$4 +9%
Lai Ching-te out as President of Taiwan by December 31, 2026? Jun 28 $46 −$2 -4%
Will Russia enter Krasnoiarske by July 31? Jun 19 $446 $0 +0%
Will Egypt sign the US x Iran memorandum of understanding? Jun 19 $446 −$5 -1%
Exact Score: Canada 0 - 1 Bosnia-Herzegovina? Jun 12 $231 +$19 +8%
Will Israel launch a ground operation in Iran by June 30, 2026? Jun 12 $233 −$1 -0%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 15 history records