Wallet analysis

2026-06-17T04:43:37+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

3.0
score
FE 0xfe43…8f09 sports 212 markets active 1h ago coverage 120d
TRAPdo not copy sports specialist
✗ negative after realistic slippage
Total PnL −$157 (-1%) realized −$156 · open −$1
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -3% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -12% what you keep after slip
Net edge-12%after slip
Net WR66%break-even
Win rate66%140W / 71L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$122per market
Trades / day2.4pace
Fees−$91est.
Kalshi-fit58%portable
Net worth$66now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$219
7 days−$10
14 days+$476
30 days+$382
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 64% −$226
other 36% −$17
crypto 0% +$79
world 0% −$80
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +66%
net ROI/market (all)-12.1%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 14 +10.1% -0.4% 57% 57% -10.5%
≤30d 45 +7.0% -3.2% 67% 67% -3.0%
≤90d 167 -1.4% -10.7% 67% 67% -10.3%
all 211 -2.8% -12.1% 66% 66% -10.4%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover2.4 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -12.1% 66% -10.4%
10% -20.5% 54% -18.9%
15% -28.2% 30% -26.8%
20% -35.2% 13% -33.9%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 3% · top 2 5% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -1% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
0% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -3% · $-wt -1% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -2% → late -4% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.3 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$47 vs −$96 · ×0.49 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.96 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

120d coverage
Net worth$66
Realized−$156
Unrealized−$1
Win rate (resolved)66%
Wins / losses140 / 71
Est. fees paid−$91
Open positions1
Markets (closed)211 / 212
History coverage120d
Avg bet$122
Trades / day2.4
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit58%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 211 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will England win on 2026-06-17? No 44¢ 44¢ $67 $66 −$1 (-1%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 66 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-16? Jun 17 $138 −$136 -98%
Will Belgium win on 2026-06-15? Jun 16 $54 +$79 +146%
Will France win on 2026-06-16? Jun 16 $87 −$85 -98%
Will Sweden win on 2026-06-14? Jun 15 $97 −$77 -79%
Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-14? Jun 14 $92 +$79 +86%
Netherlands vs. Japan: Both Teams to Score Jun 14 $70 −$69 -98%
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-13? Jun 14 $60 +$80 +134%
Brazil to score first vs. Morocco? Jun 14 $16 +$25 +158%
Will Canada win on 2026-06-12? Jun 12 $72 +$79 +109%
Will Bosnia and Herzegovina win on 2026-06-12? Jun 12 $12 +$3 +23%
LoL: Forsaken vs Karmine Corp Blue (BO3) - EMEA Masters Group B Jun 12 $204 +$56 +27%
Will Mexico vs. South Africa end in a draw? Jun 11 $19 −$19 -98%
Will Mexico win on 2026-06-11? Jun 11 $39 −$39 -98%
Valorant: Dragon Ranger Gaming vs XLG Gaming (BO3) - VCT Masters Londo Jun 11 $37 +$14 +38%
Counter-Strike: TYLOO vs Legacy (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 2 Jun 09 $335 +$120 +36%
Will Peru vs. Spain end in a draw? Jun 09 $205 +$27 +13%
Spurs vs. Knicks Jun 08 $22 −$22 -99%
LoL: Top Esports vs Team WE (BO5) - LPL Playoffs Jun 08 $97 +$39 +40%
Call of Duty: FaZe Vegas vs Vancouver Surge (BO5) - Call of Duty Leagu Jun 08 $326 +$56 +17%
Counter-Strike: Astralis vs GamerLegion (BO1) - IEM Cologne Major Stag Jun 06 $181 +$162 +90%
Valorant: XLG Gaming vs NRG (BO3) - VCT Masters London Group Stage Jun 06 $311 +$112 +36%
Call of Duty: Riyadh Falcons vs Carolina Royal Ravens (BO5) - Call of Jun 05 $70 +$45 +65%
Counter-Strike: largadosypelados vs RED Canids Academy (BO3) - Gamers Jun 05 $128 −$127 -99%
Counter-Strike: Lavked vs MANA eSports (BO3) - European Pro League Ser Jun 05 $68 +$27 +40%
Counter-Strike: Gaimin Gladiators vs Heroic (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Jun 03 $186 +$34 +18%
Roland Garros ATP: Jakub Mensik vs Joao Fonseca Jun 03 $7 +$13 +188%
Valorant: Evil Geniuses Academy vs ROSE (BO3) - VCL North America: Sta Jun 02 $138 +$22 +16%
Valorant: Dynamo Esports vs Alliance Guardians (BO3) - VCL North Ameri Jun 02 $205 +$199 +97%
Will CA Mineiro win on 2026-05-31? May 31 $161 −$160 -99%
Will Tigres de la UANL win on 2026-05-30? May 31 $130 +$40 +31%
LoL: Team Secret Whales vs Deep Cross Gaming (BO5) - LCP Playoffs May 31 $205 +$50 +24%
Will Brazil win on 2026-05-31? May 31 $2 −$2 -97%
Will EC Vitória win on 2026-05-30? May 31 $15 +$3 +23%
LoL: Karmine Corp vs Natus Vincere (BO5) - LEC Playoffs May 31 $203 +$69 +34%
Will Shanghai Shenhua FC win on 2026-05-30? May 30 $133 +$63 +48%
LoL: GAM Esports vs Deep Cross Gaming (BO5) - LCP Playoffs May 30 $209 −$207 -99%
Counter-Strike: KOLESIE vs GenOne (BO3) - Thunderpick World Championsh May 28 $131 +$149 +114%
Will Independiente del Valle win on 2026-05-27? May 27 $177 −$175 -99%
Valorant: FlyQuest vs Alliance Guardians (BO3) - VCL North America: St May 27 $154 +$31 +20%
Rocket League: NRG Esports vs FURIA Esports (BO7) - RLCS Major Paris P May 22 $210 −$208 -99%
Rocket League: Wildcard vs FUT Esports (BO5) - RLCS Major Paris Group May 21 $170 +$85 +50%
Rocket League: Ninjas in Pyjamas vs Shopify Rebellion (BO5) - RLCS Maj May 21 $55 −$54 -98%
Will AFC Bournemouth win on 2026-05-19? May 20 $35 +$8 +24%
Will Dalian Yingbo FC win on 2026-05-19? May 19 $23 +$12 +50%
Will CA Boca Juniors vs. Cruzeiro EC end in a draw? May 19 $19 −$19 -99%
Valorant: MIBR vs 100 Thieves (BO3) - VCT Americas Stage 1 Playoffs May 17 $123 −$121 -99%
LoL: JD Gaming vs Invictus Gaming (BO3) - LPL Group Ascend May 17 $162 +$67 +42%
LoL: GTZ Esports vs Francesinhas (BO1) - LPLOL Regular Season May 15 $13 −$13 -98%
Valorant: G2 Esports vs 100 Thieves (BO3) - VCT Americas Stage 1 Playo May 15 $174 +$91 +52%
LoL: GTZ Esports vs ZeroZone Gaming (BO1) - LPLOL Regular Season May 14 $20 −$15 -74%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will England win on 2026-06-17? BUY No 44¢ $68 1h
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-16? BUY No 36¢ $138 4h
Will France win on 2026-06-16? BUY No 34¢ $38 27h
Will France win on 2026-06-16? BUY No 34¢ $48 28h
Will Sweden win on 2026-06-14? BUY Yes 76¢ $15 2d
Will Belgium win on 2026-06-15? BUY No 40¢ $54 2d
Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-14? SELL No 100¢ $171 2d
Netherlands vs. Japan: Both Teams to Score BUY No 46¢ $2 2d
Netherlands vs. Japan: Both Teams to Score BUY No 46¢ $10 2d
Netherlands vs. Japan: Both Teams to Score BUY No 46¢ $58 2d
Will Sweden win on 2026-06-14? BUY No 50¢ $82 2d
Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-14? BUY No 53¢ $92 2d
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-13? BUY No 42¢ $42 3d
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-13? BUY No 42¢ $18 3d
Brazil to score first vs. Morocco? BUY No 38¢ $16 3d
Will Bosnia and Herzegovina win on 2026-06-12? BUY No 81¢ $12 4d
LoL: Forsaken vs Karmine Corp Blue (BO3) - EMEA Masters Group B BUY Karmine Corp Blue 78¢ $204 4d
Will Canada win on 2026-06-12? BUY No 47¢ $72 4d
Will Mexico vs. South Africa end in a draw? BUY Yes 21¢ $19 5d
Will Mexico win on 2026-06-11? BUY No 31¢ $39 5d
Valorant: Dragon Ranger Gaming vs XLG Gaming (BO3) - VCT Masters Londo BUY XLG Gaming 72¢ $37 7d
Counter-Strike: TYLOO vs Legacy (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 2 BUY Legacy 73¢ $335 7d
Will Peru vs. Spain end in a draw? BUY No 88¢ $205 8d
Spurs vs. Knicks BUY Knicks 54¢ $22 8d
LoL: Top Esports vs Team WE (BO5) - LPL Playoffs BUY Top Esports 71¢ $97 10d
Call of Duty: FaZe Vegas vs Vancouver Surge (BO5) - Call of Duty Leagu BUY FaZe Vegas 85¢ $167 10d
Call of Duty: FaZe Vegas vs Vancouver Surge (BO5) - Call of Duty Leagu BUY FaZe Vegas 85¢ $160 10d
Counter-Strike: Astralis vs GamerLegion (BO1) - IEM Cologne Major Stag BUY Astralis 52¢ $45 11d
Counter-Strike: Astralis vs GamerLegion (BO1) - IEM Cologne Major Stag BUY Astralis 52¢ $136 11d
Counter-Strike: largadosypelados vs RED Canids Academy (BO3) - Gamers BUY largadosypelados 74¢ $64 11d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $66.33 · official $66.33 (match) · 420 history records