Wallet analysis

2026-06-28T17:26:29+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

3.0
score
FE 0xfe41…e3bd politics 17 markets active 2h ago coverage 117d
TRAPdo not copy ⚠ Small sample
✗ negative after realistic slippage! limited sample (<25 closed)
Total PnL +$0 (+0%) realized +$0 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -0% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -10% what you keep after slip
Net edge-10%after slip
Net WR0%break-even
Win rate24%4W / 13L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$140per market
Trades / day0.4pace
Kalshi-fit71%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$1
7 days−$1
14 days−$1
30 days−$1
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
politics 39% −$1
other 28% $0
sports 11% +$1
crypto 11% $0
world 6% $0
economics 6% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +0%
net ROI/market (all)-9.6%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 2 -0.3% -9.8% 0% 0% -9.8%
≤30d 4 -0.1% -9.6% 25% 0% -9.6%
≤90d 12 -0.0% -9.6% 25% 0% -9.6%
all 17 -0.0% -9.6% 24% 0% -9.5%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.4 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -9.6% 0% -9.5%
10% -18.2% 0% -18.2%
15% -26.1% 0% -26.1%
20% -33.4% 0% -33.3%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 69% · top 2 84% thin sample
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -0% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
100% wins margin < slip thin sample
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -0% · $-wt -0% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -0% → late -0% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.4 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$0 vs −$0 · ×1.57 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×0.63 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

117d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized+$0
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)24%
Wins / losses4 / 13
Open positions0
Markets (closed)17 / 17
History coverage117d
Avg bet$140
Trades / day0.4
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit71%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 17 Trades
no open positions
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Greg Abbott win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Jun 28 $132 −$1 -0%
Will Pete Buttigieg win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Jun 25 $132 $0 -0%
Will Bitcoin reach $1,000,000 by December 31, 2026? Jun 10 $132 $0 +0%
Will 11 Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? Jun 08 $132 $0 -0%
Will Vivek Ramaswamy win the 2028 US Presidential Election? May 20 $132 $0 -0%
Will Joe Kent win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? May 18 $132 $0 -0%
Will Azerbaijan win Eurovision 2026? May 13 $132 $0 -0%
Will Bulgaria win Eurovision 2026? May 09 $132 $0 -0%
Will Croatia win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Apr 18 $133 $0 +0%
Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by April 15? Apr 15 $133 $0 +0%
Will Bitcoin reach $110,000 in April? Apr 12 $133 $0 +0%
Will Sergio Pérez be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Apr 05 $133 $0 +0%
Will Georgia win Eurovision 2026? Mar 26 $133 $0 -0%
Will Erika Kirk win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Mar 18 $133 $0 -0%
Will Kim Kardashian win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Mar 18 $133 $0 -0%
Will Galatasaray win the 2025–26 Champions League? Mar 14 $266 +$1 +0%
Will Sarah Huckabee Sanders win the 2028 Republican presidential nomin Mar 04 $133 $0 +0%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Greg Abbott win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $131 1h
Will Greg Abbott win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $132 16h
Will Pete Buttigieg win the 2028 US Presidential Election? SELL No 98¢ $132 3d
Will Pete Buttigieg win the 2028 US Presidential Election? BUY No 98¢ $132 4d
Will Bitcoin reach $1,000,000 by December 31, 2026? SELL No 99¢ $132 17d
Will Bitcoin reach $1,000,000 by December 31, 2026? BUY No 99¢ $102 18d
Will Bitcoin reach $1,000,000 by December 31, 2026? BUY No 99¢ $30 18d
Will 11 Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? SELL No 100¢ $132 20d
Will 11 Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? BUY No 100¢ $132 21d
Will Vivek Ramaswamy win the 2028 US Presidential Election? SELL No 99¢ $132 39d
Will Vivek Ramaswamy win the 2028 US Presidential Election? BUY No 99¢ $132 40d
Will Joe Kent win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $132 40d
Will Joe Kent win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $132 41d
Will Azerbaijan win Eurovision 2026? SELL No 100¢ $132 46d
Will Azerbaijan win Eurovision 2026? BUY No 100¢ $65 47d
Will Azerbaijan win Eurovision 2026? BUY No 100¢ $67 47d
Will Bulgaria win Eurovision 2026? SELL No 99¢ $132 50d
Will Bulgaria win Eurovision 2026? BUY No 99¢ $132 51d
Will Croatia win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL No 99¢ $133 71d
Will Croatia win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 99¢ $133 71d
Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by April 15? SELL No 100¢ $133 73d
Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by April 15? BUY No 100¢ $4 74d
Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by April 15? BUY No 100¢ $25 74d
Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by April 15? BUY No 100¢ $50 74d
Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by April 15? BUY No 100¢ $54 74d
Will Bitcoin reach $110,000 in April? SELL No 100¢ $133 77d
Will Bitcoin reach $110,000 in April? BUY No 100¢ $133 77d
Will Sergio Pérez be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? SELL No 100¢ $133 83d
Will Sergio Pérez be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? BUY No 100¢ $133 84d
Will Georgia win Eurovision 2026? SELL No 99¢ $133 94d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 52 history records