Wallet analysis

2026-06-14T13:01:04+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

FE
0xfe41…e151
crypto · 973 markets active 0h ago
0.0score
+$65 +0%
TOTAL PnL · realized −$52 · open −$26
avoidriskycopy
✗ TRAP crypto specialistFresh edge⚠ High turnover
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Net worth$110
Realized−$52
Unrealized−$26
Win rate (resolved)59%
Wins / losses573 / 395
Open positions5
Markets (closed)968 / 973
History coverage173d
Avg bet$17
Trades / day9.9
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit99%
Chart Positions 5 History 968 Categories Trades Net edge Slippage
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$23
7 days+$177
14 days+$239
30 days+$234
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
China x Taiwan military clash before 2027? No 82¢ 90¢ $82 $90 +$8 (+10%)
Will China invade Taiwan by end of 2026? Yes 13¢ 6¢ $30 $14 −$16 (-53%)
Will China’s 2026 annual GDP growth (Y/Y) be between 4.0% and 5.0%? Yes 75¢ 78¢ $4 $5 +$0 (+3%)
Will 2 Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? Yes 27¢ 3¢ $10 $1 −$9 (-90%)
Will 3 Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? Yes 27¢ 2¢ $10 $1 −$9 (-93%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 8, 6:15AM-6:30AM ET Up 42¢ 0¢ $8 $0 −$8 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 7:15PM-7:30PM ET Up 45¢ 0¢ $4 $0 −$4 (-100%)
Ethereum Up or Down - May 27, 4:45AM-5:00AM ET Up 25¢ 0¢ $1 $0 −$1 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 9, 10:30AM-10:45AM ET Down 47¢ 0¢ $1 $0 −$1 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 6, 6:25AM-6:30AM ET Down 51¢ 0¢ $1 $0 −$1 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 16, 7:00PM-7:15PM ET Down 56¢ 0¢ $2 $0 −$2 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 13, 10:00AM-10:15AM ET Down 50¢ 0¢ $1 $0 −$1 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 21, 10:00AM-10:15AM ET Up 68¢ 0¢ $1 $0 −$1 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 15, 10:30AM-10:45AM ET Down 55¢ 0¢ $1 $0 −$1 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 1, 3:00AM-3:15AM ET Up 38¢ 0¢ $2 $0 −$2 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 20, 6:30AM-6:45AM ET Up 47¢ 0¢ $1 $0 −$1 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 8, 10:15PM-10:30PM ET Down 55¢ 0¢ $16 $0 −$16 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 27, 4:00AM-4:15AM ET Up 60¢ 0¢ $6 $0 −$6 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 31, 4:00AM-4:15AM ET Down 47¢ 0¢ $3 $0 −$3 (-100%)
Ethereum Up or Down - May 15, 10:30AM-10:45AM ET Down 52¢ 0¢ $1 $0 −$1 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 12:15AM-12:30AM ET Up 45¢ 0¢ $8 $0 −$8 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 31, 2:30AM-2:45AM ET Down 10¢ 0¢ $1 $0 −$1 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 10, 9:15PM-9:30PM ET Down 51¢ 0¢ $1 $0 −$1 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 8, 2:30AM-2:45AM ET Up 45¢ 0¢ $7 $0 −$7 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 23, 12:15AM-12:30AM ET Up 30¢ 0¢ $1 $0 −$1 (-100%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 8:45AM-9:00AM ET Jun 14 $20 +$7 +34%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 8:30AM-8:45AM ET Jun 14 $8 −$8 -99%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 8:15AM-8:30AM ET Jun 14 $5 −$5 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 8:00AM-8:15AM ET Jun 14 $7 −$7 -98%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 7:45AM-8:00AM ET Jun 14 $138 +$5 +4%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 7:30AM-7:45AM ET Jun 14 $5 +$4 +83%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 7:15AM-7:30AM ET Jun 14 $124 −$9 -7%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 7:00AM-7:15AM ET Jun 14 $3 +$7 +233%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 6:45AM-7:00AM ET Jun 14 $5 +$3 +57%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 6:30AM-6:45AM ET Jun 14 $131 +$18 +14%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 6:15AM-6:20AM ET Jun 14 $8 −$8 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 6:10AM-6:15AM ET Jun 14 $25 +$3 +12%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 5:00AM-5:15AM ET Jun 14 $6 +$4 +54%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 4:45AM-5:00AM ET Jun 14 $26 −$7 -28%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 4:30AM-4:45AM ET Jun 14 $3 −$3 -97%
Will Australia win on 2026-06-14? Jun 14 $6 +$6 +96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 4:00AM-4:15AM ET Jun 14 $3 +$7 +233%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 3:45AM-4:00AM ET Jun 14 $3 +$2 +93%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 2:45AM-3:00AM ET Jun 14 $6 −$5 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 2:15AM-2:30AM ET Jun 14 $10 +$4 +46%
Will Scotland win on 2026-06-13? Jun 14 $5 +$1 +32%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 1:15AM-1:30AM ET Jun 14 $4 +$1 +18%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 1:30AM-1:45AM ET Jun 14 $4 −$4 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 1:00AM-1:15AM ET Jun 14 $6 +$2 +43%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 12:45AM-1:00AM ET Jun 14 $6 +$4 +54%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 12:30AM-12:45AM ET Jun 14 $10 +$9 +84%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 12:15AM-12:30AM ET Jun 14 $8 −$8 -98%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 11:00PM-11:15PM ET Jun 14 $110 +$5 +5%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 10:15PM-10:30PM ET Jun 14 $4 +$5 +122%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 7:45PM-8:00PM ET Jun 14 $29 +$17 +58%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 7:30PM-7:45PM ET Jun 13 $9 −$8 -98%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 7:15PM-7:30PM ET Jun 13 $6 $0 -7%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 7:00PM-7:15PM ET Jun 13 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 10:15AM-10:30AM ET Jun 13 $137 +$5 +4%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 9:45AM-10:00AM ET Jun 13 $23 +$4 +18%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 10:00AM-10:15AM ET Jun 13 $5 −$5 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 9:30AM-9:45AM ET Jun 13 $207 −$4 -2%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 9:15AM-9:30AM ET Jun 13 $6 +$9 +155%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 9:00AM-9:15AM ET Jun 13 $124 −$1 -1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 8:45AM-9:00AM ET Jun 13 $9 −$9 -98%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 7:30AM-7:45AM ET Jun 13 $50 +$6 +12%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 6:30AM-6:45AM ET Jun 13 $25 +$5 +22%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 6:00AM-6:15AM ET Jun 13 $3 −$2 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 5:30AM-5:45AM ET Jun 13 $12 −$11 -98%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 5:00AM-5:15AM ET Jun 13 $8 −$8 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 4:45AM-5:00AM ET Jun 13 $3 −$3 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 4:15AM-4:30AM ET Jun 13 $5 +$4 +86%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 4:00AM-4:15AM ET Jun 13 $30 +$3 +8%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 3:45AM-4:00AM ET Jun 13 $5 −$5 -100%
Will United States win on 2026-06-12? Jun 13 $2 +$3 +105%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
crypto 91% −$32
world 7% +$1
politics 1% +$6
economics 1% −$11
other 0% −$27
tech 0% −$15
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 8:45AM-9:00AM ET BUY Down 73¢ $20 10m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 8:30AM-8:45AM ET BUY Up 35¢ $1 29m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 8:30AM-8:45AM ET BUY Up 35¢ $5 29m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 8:30AM-8:45AM ET BUY Up 47¢ $3 29m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 8:15AM-8:30AM ET BUY Up 60¢ $5 41m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 8:00AM-8:15AM ET BUY Up 35¢ $2 54m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 8:00AM-8:15AM ET BUY Up 50¢ $5 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 7:45AM-8:00AM ET BUY Down 99¢ $57 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 7:45AM-8:00AM ET BUY Down 99¢ $77 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 7:45AM-8:00AM ET BUY Down 55¢ $4 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 7:30AM-7:45AM ET BUY Up 53¢ $5 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 7:15AM-7:30AM ET SELL Up 99¢ $111 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 7:15AM-7:30AM ET BUY Up 98¢ $110 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 7:15AM-7:30AM ET BUY Down 45¢ $2 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 7:15AM-7:30AM ET BUY Down 45¢ $2 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 7:15AM-7:30AM ET BUY Down 67¢ $5 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 7:15AM-7:30AM ET SELL Up 40¢ $4 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 7:00AM-7:15AM ET BUY Up 30¢ $3 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 7:15AM-7:30AM ET BUY Up 48¢ $5 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 6:45AM-7:00AM ET BUY Down 62¢ $5 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 6:30AM-6:45AM ET BUY Up 87¢ $131 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 6:15AM-6:20AM ET BUY Down 30¢ $0 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 6:15AM-6:20AM ET BUY Down 30¢ $3 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 6:15AM-6:20AM ET BUY Down 62¢ $5 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 6:10AM-6:15AM ET BUY Down 89¢ $25 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 5:00AM-5:15AM ET BUY Down 65¢ $6 3h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 4:45AM-5:00AM ET SELL Up 27¢ $7 4h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 4:45AM-5:00AM ET SELL Up 15¢ $5 4h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 4:45AM-5:00AM ET BUY Up 18¢ $11 4h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 4:45AM-5:00AM ET SELL Up 44¢ $6 4h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +48%
net ROI/market (all)-7.2%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 197 +3.3% -6.5% 59% 52% -6.1%
≤30d 696 +7.3% -3.0% 60% 50% -7.6%
≤90d 963 +2.8% -7.0% 59% 48% -9.7%
all 968 +2.6% -7.2% 59% 48% -9.8%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.
turnover9.9 tr/day
realistic slip~9%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -7.2% 48% -9.8%
10% -16.1% 40% -18.5%
15% -24.2% 33% -26.3%
20% -31.6% 28% -33.6%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $110.43 · official $110.44 (match) · 2683 history records