Wallet analysis

2026-06-19T21:05:14+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

1.0
score
FE 0xfe41…9d6c other 6 markets active 1h ago coverage 1d
RISKYcopy with care ⚠ Small sample
✗ too few resolved markets (<12) to judge✗ only 1d of captured history — unreliable✗ negative after realistic slippage
Total PnL −$66 (-30%) realized −$68 · open +$2
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -27% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -37% what you keep after slip
Net edge-37%after slip
Net WR33%break-even
Win rate67%2W / 1L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$37per market
Trades / day6.8pace
Fees−$1est.
Kalshi-fit50%portable
Net worth$42now

Equity curve

realized PnL
Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 1d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

Categories

share · PnL
other 63% −$62
sports 37% +$4
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
insufficient sample — too few resolved markets to judge
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +33%
net ROI/market (all)-34.3%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 3 -27.4% -34.3% 67% 33% -49.6%
≤30d 3 -27.4% -34.3% 67% 33% -49.6%
≤90d 3 -27.4% -34.3% 67% 33% -49.6%
all 3 -27.4% -34.3% 67% 33% -49.6%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover6.8 tr/day
realistic slip~7%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -34.3% 33% -49.6%
10% -40.6% 0% -54.4%
15% -46.3% 0% -58.8%
20% -51.6% 0% -62.8%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 62% · top 2 100% thin sample
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -44% too few recent
Fragile wins
50% wins margin < slip thin sample
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -27% · $-wt -44% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early —% → late —% no data
Add-ons / DCA
1.0 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$3 vs −$66 · ×0.05 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.09 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

1d coverage
Net worth$42
Realized−$68
Unrealized+$2
Win rate (resolved)67%
Wins / losses2 / 1
Est. fees paid−$1
Open positions1
Markets (closed)3 / 6
History coverage1d
Avg bet$37
Trades / day6.8
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit50%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 3 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will United States win on 2026-06-19? Yes 96¢ 100¢ $40 $42 +$2 (+4%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 1 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
United States vs. Australia: O/U 1.5 Jun 19 $36 +$4 +11%
Exact Score: United States 0 - 0 Australia? Jun 19 $33 +$2 +7%
Will Czechia win on 2026-06-18? Jun 18 $67 −$66 -99%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will United States win on 2026-06-19? BUY Yes 96¢ $40 59m
United States vs. Australia: O/U 1.5 SELL Over 100¢ $40 1h
United States vs. Australia: O/U 1.5 BUY Over 90¢ $36 1h
Exact Score: United States 0 - 0 Australia? SELL No 100¢ $35 1h
Exact Score: United States 0 - 0 Australia? BUY No 93¢ $33 2h
Spread: Brazil (-1.5) AND Spread: United States (-1.5) AND Türkiye vs. BUY 10¢ $33 2h
Spread: Brazil (-1.5) AND Scotland vs. Morocco: O/U 2.5 AND Will Unite BUY 10¢ $13 2h
Will Czechia win on 2026-06-18? BUY Yes 52¢ $67 29h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
≈ Vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $41.73 · official $86.63 · 8 history records