Wallet analysis

2026-06-17T19:44:14+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
FE 0xfe3f…abe7 crypto 587 markets active 0h ago coverage 116d
TRAPdo not copy crypto specialist
✗ negative after realistic slippage
Total PnL −$1,602 (-17%) realized −$1,602 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -24% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -34% what you keep after slip
Net edge-34%after slip
Net WR17%break-even
Win rate17%99W / 488L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$16per market
Trades / day7.1pace
Kalshi-fit99%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$397
7 days+$344
14 days+$344
30 days+$344
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 89% −$860
sports 6% −$340
world 2% −$170
other 2% −$63
politics 1% −$56
culture 1% −$17
finance 0% −$10
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +17%
net ROI/market (all)-31.6%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 74 +2.5% -7.3% 16% 16% +2.4%
≤30d 74 +2.5% -7.3% 16% 16% +2.4%
≤90d 100 -19.4% -27.1% 13% 13% -11.4%
all 587 -24.4% -31.6% 17% 17% -24.2%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover7.1 tr/day
realistic slip~7%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -31.6% 17% -24.2%
10% -38.2% 17% -31.5%
15% -44.1% 16% -38.1%
20% -49.6% 16% -44.2%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 12% · top 2 19% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -2% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
1% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -24% · $-wt -17% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -21% → late -28% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.2 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$59 vs −$15 · ×3.91 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×0.79 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

116d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized−$1,602
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)17%
Wins / losses99 / 488
Open positions0
Markets (closed)587 / 587
History coverage116d
Avg bet$16
Trades / day7.1
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit99%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 587 Trades
no open positions (452 resolved losses — in realized PnL)
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 3:35PM-3:40PM ET Jun 17 $53 +$162 +308%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 3:30PM-3:35PM ET Jun 17 $53 −$50 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 3:25PM-3:30PM ET Jun 17 $53 +$442 +831%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 3:20PM-3:25PM ET Jun 17 $53 −$50 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 3:15PM-3:20PM ET Jun 17 $53 −$50 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 3:10PM-3:15PM ET Jun 17 $79 −$25 -32%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 3:00PM-3:05PM ET Jun 17 $53 +$201 +381%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 2:55PM-3:00PM ET Jun 17 $63 −$60 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 2:50PM-2:55PM ET Jun 17 $53 −$50 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 2:45PM-2:50PM ET Jun 17 $37 −$35 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 2:25PM-2:30PM ET Jun 17 $53 +$277 +522%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 2:15PM-2:20PM ET Jun 17 $26 −$25 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 2:10PM-2:15PM ET Jun 17 $11 −$10 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 9:25PM-9:30PM ET Jun 16 $77 −$72 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 9:20PM-9:25PM ET Jun 16 $53 −$50 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 9:10PM-9:15PM ET Jun 16 $53 −$50 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 9:05PM-9:10PM ET Jun 16 $53 −$50 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 9:00PM-9:05PM ET Jun 16 $27 −$25 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 8:55PM-9:00PM ET Jun 16 $53 −$50 -94%
Will New Zealand win on 2026-06-15? Jun 16 $51 −$50 -98%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 8:40PM-8:45PM ET Jun 16 $53 −$50 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 8:35PM-8:40PM ET Jun 16 $27 −$25 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 8:30PM-8:35PM ET Jun 16 $53 −$50 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 8:25PM-8:30PM ET Jun 16 $27 −$25 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 7:55PM-8:00PM ET Jun 15 $27 −$25 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 7:50PM-7:55PM ET Jun 15 $53 −$50 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 7:45PM-7:50PM ET Jun 15 $27 −$25 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 7:10PM-7:15PM ET Jun 15 $52 −$48 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 7:05PM-7:10PM ET Jun 15 $27 −$25 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 7:00PM-7:05PM ET Jun 15 $26 −$25 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 6:50PM-6:55PM ET Jun 15 $26 −$25 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 6:45PM-6:50PM ET Jun 15 $53 −$50 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 6:35PM-6:40PM ET Jun 15 $41 −$38 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 6:30PM-6:35PM ET Jun 15 $27 +$221 +831%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 6:25PM-6:30PM ET Jun 15 $27 −$25 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 6:20PM-6:25PM ET Jun 15 $53 −$50 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 6:15PM-6:20PM ET Jun 15 $27 −$25 -94%
Will Saudi Arabia win on 2026-06-15? Jun 15 $51 −$50 -98%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 6:10PM-6:15PM ET Jun 15 $53 −$25 -47%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 6:05PM-6:10PM ET Jun 15 $53 +$674 +1272%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 6:00PM-6:05PM ET Jun 15 $27 −$25 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 5:55PM-6:00PM ET Jun 15 $53 −$50 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 5:50PM-5:55PM ET Jun 15 $27 −$25 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 5:45PM-5:50PM ET Jun 15 $27 −$25 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 5:40PM-5:45PM ET Jun 15 $26 −$25 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 5:35PM-5:40PM ET Jun 15 $26 +$91 +346%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 5:30PM-5:35PM ET Jun 15 $26 −$25 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 5:25PM-5:30PM ET Jun 15 $37 −$35 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 5:20PM-5:25PM ET Jun 15 $26 −$25 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 5:15PM-5:20PM ET Jun 15 $26 −$25 -95%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 3:35PM-3:40PM ET SELL Down 99¢ $215 4m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 3:35PM-3:40PM ET BUY Down 23¢ $53 6m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 3:30PM-3:35PM ET BUY Up 22¢ $53 9m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 3:25PM-3:30PM ET SELL Down 99¢ $495 13m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 3:25PM-3:30PM ET BUY Down 10¢ $53 17m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 3:20PM-3:25PM ET BUY Up 20¢ $53 23m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 3:15PM-3:20PM ET BUY Up 14¢ $53 27m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 3:10PM-3:15PM ET BUY Down 3¢ $27 30m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 3:10PM-3:15PM ET SELL Up 96¢ $225 30m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 3:10PM-3:15PM ET BUY Up 21¢ $53 31m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 3:00PM-3:05PM ET SELL Down 99¢ $254 39m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 3:00PM-3:05PM ET BUY Down 19¢ $53 42m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 2:55PM-3:00PM ET BUY Up 8¢ $11 47m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 2:55PM-3:00PM ET BUY Up 19¢ $53 48m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 2:50PM-2:55PM ET BUY Up 13¢ $53 49m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 2:45PM-2:50PM ET BUY Up 3¢ $11 55m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 2:45PM-2:50PM ET BUY Up 19¢ $26 57m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 2:25PM-2:30PM ET SELL Up 99¢ $330 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 2:25PM-2:30PM ET BUY Up 15¢ $53 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 2:15PM-2:20PM ET BUY Down 22¢ $26 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 2:10PM-2:15PM ET BUY Up 4¢ $11 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 9:25PM-9:30PM ET BUY Down 6¢ $50 42h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 9:25PM-9:30PM ET BUY Down 15¢ $26 42h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 9:20PM-9:25PM ET BUY Down 8¢ $53 42h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 9:10PM-9:15PM ET BUY Up 6¢ $53 42h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 9:05PM-9:10PM ET BUY Up 4¢ $53 42h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 9:00PM-9:05PM ET BUY Down 7¢ $27 42h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 8:55PM-9:00PM ET BUY Up 3¢ $27 42h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 8:55PM-9:00PM ET BUY Up 4¢ $27 42h
Will New Zealand win on 2026-06-15? BUY Yes 21¢ $51 42h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 935 history records