Wallet analysis

2026-06-26T05:54:11+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
FE 0xfe3c…dfd2 weather 790 markets active 13h ago coverage 29d
BOTnot copyable weather specialist⚠ High turnover
✗ bot/MM pace (67 trades/day) — uncopyable✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage
Total PnL +$318 (+1%) realized +$318 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +0% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -23% what you keep after slip
Net edge-23%after slip
Net WR2%break-even
Win rate96%759W / 31L
Drawdown18%max
Avg bet$62per market
Trades / day67.2pace
Fees−$3est.
Kalshi-fit99%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$15
7 days+$26
14 days+$14
30 days+$297
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
weather 96% +$309
sports 4% −$10
other 0% −$3
crypto 0% $0
politics 0% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
uncopyable — bot pace (67 trades/day)
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +2%
net ROI/market (all)-9.0%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 99 +0.8% -8.8% 97% 3% -9.1%
≤30d 790 +0.5% -9.0% 96% 2% -9.0%
≤90d 790 +0.5% -9.0% 96% 2% -9.0%
all 790 +0.5% -9.0% 96% 2% -9.0%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover67.2 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -9.0% 2% -9.0%
10% ← realistic here -17.8% 0% -17.7%
15% -25.7% 0% -25.6%
20% -33.0% 0% -32.9%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 3% · top 2 6% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +1% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
98% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +1% · $-wt +1% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +1% → late +0% edge persists early→late
Add-ons / DCA
2.3 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$1 vs −$6 · ×0.11 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×2.68 per $1 lost it wins $2.68
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

29d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized+$318
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)96%
Wins / losses759 / 31
Est. fees paid−$3
Open positions0
Markets (closed)790 / 790
History coverage29d
Avg bet$62
Trades / day67.2
Drawdown18%
Kalshi-fit99%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 790 Trades
no open positions (1 resolved losses — in realized PnL)
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will the highest temperature in Sao Paulo be 18°C on June 25? Jun 26 $80 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Sao Paulo be 19°C on June 25? Jun 26 $100 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Sao Paulo be 20°C or higher on June 25 Jun 26 $100 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Sao Paulo be 17°C on June 25? Jun 26 $60 $0 +1%
Will the highest temperature in Buenos Aires be 10°C on June 25? Jun 26 $59 +$1 +1%
Will the highest temperature in Buenos Aires be 17°C or higher on June Jun 26 $100 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in London be 34°C on June 25? Jun 25 $40 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in London be 35°C on June 25? Jun 25 $51 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in London be 33°C on June 25? Jun 25 $27 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Amsterdam be 34°C on June 25? Jun 25 $60 $0 +1%
Will the highest temperature in Amsterdam be 33°C on June 25? Jun 25 $47 $0 +1%
Will the highest temperature in Amsterdam be 28°C or below on June 25? Jun 25 $57 +$1 +1%
Will the highest temperature in Amsterdam be 35°C on June 25? Jun 25 $40 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Amsterdam be 36°C on June 25? Jun 25 $20 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Milan be 39°C on June 25? Jun 25 $10 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Milan be 38°C on June 25? Jun 25 $19 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Madrid be 35°C on June 25? Jun 25 $40 $0 +1%
Will the highest temperature in Madrid be 36°C on June 25? Jun 25 $21 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Madrid be 39°C or higher on June 25? Jun 25 $83 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Tel Aviv be 33°C on June 25? Jun 25 $33 $0 +1%
Will the highest temperature in Istanbul be 31°C on June 25? Jun 25 $60 $0 +1%
Will the highest temperature in Istanbul be 32°C or higher on June 25? Jun 25 $60 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Ankara be 32°C on June 25? Jun 25 $40 $0 +1%
Will the highest temperature in Ankara be 33°C on June 25? Jun 25 $60 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Helsinki be 24°C or higher on June 25? Jun 25 $60 $0 +1%
Will the highest temperature in Helsinki be 20°C on June 25? Jun 25 $82 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Moscow be 15°C or below on June 25? Jun 25 $304 +$1 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Jeddah be 35°C on June 25? Jun 25 $58 +$2 +4%
Will the highest temperature in Kuala Lumpur be 34°C on June 25? Jun 25 $60 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Kuala Lumpur be 35°C on June 25? Jun 25 $31 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Wuhan be 33°C on June 25? Jun 25 $60 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Chengdu be 30°C on June 25? Jun 25 $60 $0 +1%
Will the highest temperature in Moscow be 21°C on June 25? Jun 25 $49 $0 +1%
Will the highest temperature in Wuhan be 32°C on June 25? Jun 25 $60 −$1 -1%
Will the highest temperature in Dallas be between 88-89°F on June 24? Jun 25 $499 +$1 +0%
Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 78-79°F on Ju Jun 25 $493 +$1 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Miami be between 90-91°F on June 24? Jun 24 $27 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Denver be between 76-77°F on June 23? Jun 24 $9 $0 +1%
Will the highest temperature in Dallas be between 88-89°F on June 23? Jun 24 $50 $0 +1%
Will the highest temperature in Atlanta be between 78-79°F on June 23? Jun 24 $16 $0 +1%
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 35°C on June 23? Jun 24 $40 $0 +1%
Will the highest temperature in London be 38°C on June 23? Jun 23 $11 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in London be 35°C on June 23? Jun 23 $20 $0 +1%
Will the highest temperature in London be 39°C on June 23? Jun 23 $60 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in London be 37°C on June 23? Jun 23 $30 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Amsterdam be 33°C on June 23? Jun 23 $57 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Amsterdam be 26°C or below on June 23? Jun 23 $113 +$2 +1%
Will the highest temperature in Amsterdam be 32°C on June 23? Jun 23 $80 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Milan be 37°C on June 23? Jun 23 $60 $0 +1%
Will the highest temperature in Milan be 38°C on June 23? Jun 23 $90 $0 +0%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will the highest temperature in Buenos Aires be 17°C or higher on June BUY No 100¢ $9 12h
Will the highest temperature in Buenos Aires be 17°C or higher on June BUY No 100¢ $15 12h
Will the highest temperature in Buenos Aires be 17°C or higher on June BUY No 100¢ $10 12h
Will the highest temperature in Buenos Aires be 17°C or higher on June BUY No 100¢ $27 12h
Will the highest temperature in Buenos Aires be 17°C or higher on June BUY No 100¢ $6 12h
Will the highest temperature in Buenos Aires be 17°C or higher on June BUY No 100¢ $10 12h
Will the highest temperature in Buenos Aires be 17°C or higher on June BUY No 100¢ $8 12h
Will the highest temperature in London be 33°C on June 25? BUY No 100¢ $27 13h
Will the highest temperature in Amsterdam be 33°C on June 25? BUY No 99¢ $5 14h
Will the highest temperature in Amsterdam be 33°C on June 25? BUY No 99¢ $14 14h
Will the highest temperature in Amsterdam be 33°C on June 25? BUY No 99¢ $18 14h
Will the highest temperature in Amsterdam be 33°C on June 25? BUY No 99¢ $5 14h
Will the highest temperature in Amsterdam be 33°C on June 25? BUY No 99¢ $5 14h
Will the highest temperature in Buenos Aires be 17°C or higher on June BUY No 100¢ $5 15h
Will the highest temperature in Buenos Aires be 17°C or higher on June BUY No 100¢ $5 15h
Will the highest temperature in Moscow be 21°C on June 25? SELL No 99¢ $8 15h
Will the highest temperature in Moscow be 21°C on June 25? SELL No 99¢ $35 15h
Will the highest temperature in Moscow be 21°C on June 25? SELL No 99¢ $7 15h
Will the highest temperature in Buenos Aires be 17°C or higher on June BUY No 100¢ $5 15h
Will the highest temperature in Sao Paulo be 19°C on June 25? BUY No 100¢ $0 15h
Will the highest temperature in Sao Paulo be 20°C or higher on June 25 BUY No 100¢ $0 15h
Will the highest temperature in Sao Paulo be 17°C on June 25? BUY No 99¢ $8 15h
Will the highest temperature in Sao Paulo be 20°C or higher on June 25 BUY No 100¢ $5 15h
Will the highest temperature in Sao Paulo be 19°C on June 25? BUY No 100¢ $5 15h
Will the highest temperature in Sao Paulo be 17°C on June 25? BUY No 99¢ $5 15h
Will the highest temperature in Sao Paulo be 20°C or higher on June 25 BUY No 100¢ $8 15h
Will the highest temperature in Sao Paulo be 19°C on June 25? BUY No 100¢ $6 15h
Will the highest temperature in Sao Paulo be 19°C on June 25? BUY No 100¢ $8 15h
Will the highest temperature in Sao Paulo be 20°C or higher on June 25 BUY No 100¢ $6 15h
Will the highest temperature in Sao Paulo be 18°C on June 25? BUY No 100¢ $6 15h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 2676 history records