Wallet analysis

2026-06-15T16:32:15+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

4.5
score
FE 0xfe3b…ae48 weather 486 markets active 1h ago coverage 90d
RISKYcopy with care weather specialistFresh edge⚠ High turnover
! high turnover
Total PnL +$1,401 (+20%) realized +$1,435 · open −$34
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +37% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt +14% what you keep after slip
Net edge+14%after slip
Net WR44%break-even
Win rate48%228W / 250L
Drawdown11%max
Avg bet$15per market
Trades / day10.5pace
Fees−$2est.
Kalshi-fit97%portable
Net worth$104now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$54
7 days+$139
14 days+$296
30 days+$485
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
weather 91% +$1,209
politics 4% −$31
other 3% +$31
world 1% +$40
sports 1% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
borderline — thin edge, slippage-sensitive
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +44%
net ROI/market (all)+23.7%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 37 +38.1% +25.0% 43% 41% +18.0%
≤30d 112 +44.1% +30.4% 43% 38% +21.3%
≤90d 478 +36.7% +23.7% 48% 44% +7.6%
all 478 +36.7% +23.7% 48% 44% +7.6%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover10.5 tr/day
realistic slip~9%
edge survives to15%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here +23.7% 44% +7.6%
10% +11.9% 40% -2.7%
15% +1.1% 35% -12.1%
20% -8.8% 30% -20.7%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 3% · top 2 5% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +19% fresh edge ✓
Fragile wins
7% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +37% · $-wt +19% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +28% → late +45% edge persists early→late
Add-ons / DCA
1.2 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$14 vs −$8 · ×1.84 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×1.68 per $1 lost it wins $1.68
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

90d coverage
Net worth$104
Realized+$1,435
Unrealized−$34
Win rate (resolved)48%
Wins / losses228 / 250
Est. fees paid−$2
Open positions8
Markets (closed)478 / 486
History coverage90d
Avg bet$15
Trades / day10.5
Drawdown11%
Kalshi-fit97%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 8 History 478 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Renan Santos win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? No 87¢ 87¢ $50 $50 −$0 (-0%)
Will the highest temperature in Austin be between 80-81°F on June 15? Yes 30¢ 66¢ $10 $22 +$12 (+120%)
Will Lula announce the nomination of an individual for Minister of the Supreme Federal Court of Brazil by December 31? No 18¢ 24¢ $10 $14 +$4 (+36%)
Will Türkiye win on 2026-06-19? Yes 48¢ 48¢ $10 $10 −$0 (-1%)
Will Neymar play in the World Cup? No 14¢ 14¢ $5 $5 −$0 (-4%)
World Cup: Largest Margin of Victory Record Broken? Yes 6¢ 4¢ $3 $2 −$1 (-25%)
Will Roberto Sánchez Palomino win the 2026 Peruvian presidential election? Yes 4¢ 1¢ $10 $2 −$8 (-83%)
Will the highest temperature in Sao Paulo be 18°C on June 15? Yes 71¢ 0¢ $40 $0 −$40 (-100%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 73 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will the highest temperature in Wellington be 13°C on June 16? Jun 15 $10 −$1 -5%
Will the highest temperature in Sao Paulo be 19°C on June 15? Jun 15 $51 +$8 +15%
Will the highest temperature in Wellington be 18°C on June 15? Jun 15 $5 −$5 -96%
Will the highest temperature in Chicago be between 68-69°F on June 14? Jun 14 $10 +$9 +82%
Will the highest temperature in Tokyo be 21°C on June 15? Jun 14 $15 −$15 -97%
Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 23°C on June 14? Jun 14 $10 −$1 -8%
Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 22°C on June 14? Jun 14 $4 +$51 +1278%
Will the highest temperature in Warsaw be 16°C on June 14? Jun 14 $20 −$2 -7%
Will the highest temperature in Toronto be 24°C on June 14? Jun 14 $10 +$20 +188%
Will the highest temperature in Toronto be 25°C on June 14? Jun 14 $10 −$5 -47%
Will the highest temperature in Toronto be 23°C on June 14? Jun 14 $10 +$4 +39%
Spread: Spurs (-5.5) Jun 14 $10 +$5 +49%
Will the highest temperature in Toronto be 22°C on June 14? Jun 14 $10 $0 -3%
Will the highest temperature in Warsaw be 14°C on June 14? Jun 14 $4 −$4 -96%
Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 24°C on June 14? Jun 14 $20 −$1 -6%
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-13? Jun 13 $10 +$6 +58%
Will the lowest temperature in Seoul be 21°C on June 14? Jun 13 $5 −$5 -97%
Will George Russell win the 2026 F1 Catalunya Grand Prix? Jun 13 $10 −$10 -99%
Will the highest temperature in Istanbul be 20°C on June 13? Jun 13 $20 +$13 +62%
Will the highest temperature in Amsterdam be 17°C on June 13? Jun 13 $20 −$3 -13%
Will the highest temperature in Amsterdam be 16°C on June 13? Jun 13 $5 −$2 -36%
Will the highest temperature in Munich be 14°C on June 12? Jun 12 $5 −$5 -96%
Will the highest temperature in Chongqing be 22°C on June 12? Jun 12 $10 +$20 +194%
Will the lowest temperature in Seoul be 18°C on June 12? Jun 12 $21 +$15 +74%
UFC Freedom 250: Ciryl Gane vs. Alex Pereira (Heavyweight, Main Card) Jun 12 $15 −$15 -99%
Will the lowest temperature in Seoul be 16°C on June 12? Jun 11 $10 +$4 +40%
Will the highest temperature in Sao Paulo be 21°C on June 11? Jun 11 $5 −$2 -41%
Will the highest temperature in Sao Paulo be 20°C on June 11? Jun 11 $20 +$8 +37%
Will the highest temperature in Sao Paulo be 19°C on June 11? Jun 11 $5 $0 -2%
Will the highest temperature in Sao Paulo be 25°C on June 10? Jun 10 $26 +$1 +3%
Will the highest temperature in Sao Paulo be 23°C on June 10? Jun 10 $2 −$1 -55%
Will the highest temperature in Taipei be 24°C on June 10? Jun 09 $5 −$5 -96%
Will the highest temperature in Taipei be 23°C on June 10? Jun 09 $1 −$1 -95%
Will the highest temperature in Taipei be 26°C on June 9? Jun 09 $10 +$30 +290%
Will the highest temperature in Tokyo be 22°C on June 9? Jun 09 $10 +$11 +104%
Will the highest temperature in Buenos Aires be 13°C on June 8? Jun 08 $21 +$22 +109%
Will the highest temperature in Wellington be 13°C on June 9? Jun 08 $20 −$5 -24%
Will the highest temperature in Wuhan be 21°C on June 8? Jun 08 $10 $0 +3%
Will Kimi Antonelli be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Jun 07 $10 +$8 +74%
Will the highest temperature in Chongqing be 18°C on June 8? Jun 07 $16 −$15 -97%
Will the highest temperature in Buenos Aires be 16°C on June 7? Jun 07 $20 −$4 -18%
Will the highest temperature in Chengdu be 25°C on June 7? Jun 07 $16 +$39 +253%
Will the highest temperature in Chongqing be 26°C on June 7? Jun 07 $41 +$32 +78%
Will the highest temperature in Buenos Aires be 15°C on June 7? Jun 07 $10 −$10 -96%
Will the highest temperature in Shenzhen be 27°C on June 7? Jun 07 $3 −$3 -95%
Will the highest temperature in Shenzhen be 26°C on June 7? Jun 07 $1 −$1 -95%
Will the highest temperature in Shenzhen be 25°C on June 7? Jun 07 $1 −$1 -95%
Will the highest temperature in Wellington be 14°C on June 7? Jun 06 $10 −$1 -11%
Will the highest temperature in Sao Paulo be 24°C on June 7? Jun 06 $20 −$2 -9%
Will the highest temperature in Sao Paulo be 22°C on June 7? Jun 06 $5 −$2 -42%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will the highest temperature in Wellington be 13°C on June 16? SELL Yes 25¢ $10 1h
Will the highest temperature in Wellington be 13°C on June 16? BUY Yes 24¢ $10 1h
Will the highest temperature in Sao Paulo be 19°C on June 15? SELL Yes 96¢ $49 3h
Will the highest temperature in Sao Paulo be 19°C on June 15? BUY Yes 78¢ $40 11h
Will the highest temperature in Austin be between 80-81°F on June 15? BUY Yes 30¢ $10 12h
Will the highest temperature in Sao Paulo be 18°C on June 15? BUY Yes 71¢ $41 13h
Will the highest temperature in Sao Paulo be 19°C on June 15? SELL Yes 25¢ $10 13h
Will the highest temperature in Sao Paulo be 19°C on June 15? BUY Yes 25¢ $10 13h
Will the highest temperature in Wellington be 18°C on June 15? BUY Yes 13¢ $5 16h
Will the highest temperature in Chicago be between 68-69°F on June 14? SELL Yes 61¢ $19 23h
World Cup: Largest Margin of Victory Record Broken? BUY Yes 6¢ $3 23h
Will the highest temperature in Chicago be between 68-69°F on June 14? BUY Yes 32¢ $10 26h
Will the highest temperature in Tokyo be 21°C on June 15? BUY Yes 34¢ $15 26h
Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 23°C on June 14? SELL Yes 23¢ $10 35h
Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 22°C on June 14? SELL Yes 55¢ $3 35h
Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 22°C on June 14? SELL Yes 55¢ $16 35h
Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 22°C on June 14? SELL Yes 56¢ $36 35h
Will Türkiye win on 2026-06-19? BUY Yes 48¢ $10 36h
Will the highest temperature in Warsaw be 16°C on June 14? SELL No 55¢ $19 36h
Will the highest temperature in Toronto be 24°C on June 14? SELL Yes 83¢ $30 36h
Will the highest temperature in Toronto be 25°C on June 14? SELL Yes 10¢ $5 36h
Will the highest temperature in Toronto be 25°C on June 14? BUY Yes 17¢ $10 36h
Will the highest temperature in Toronto be 23°C on June 14? SELL Yes 35¢ $14 37h
Will the highest temperature in Toronto be 24°C on June 14? BUY Yes 27¢ $10 37h
Spread: Spurs (-5.5) SELL Knicks 76¢ $15 37h
Will the highest temperature in Toronto be 22°C on June 14? SELL Yes 22¢ $10 39h
Spread: Spurs (-5.5) BUY Knicks 50¢ $10 39h
Will the highest temperature in Warsaw be 14°C on June 14? BUY Yes 10¢ $4 40h
Will the highest temperature in Warsaw be 16°C on June 14? BUY No 57¢ $20 40h
Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 24°C on June 14? SELL No 59¢ $19 40h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $104.26 · official $104.26 (match) · 1041 history records