Wallet analysis

2026-06-17T07:03:16+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
FE 0xfe3a…4d11 world 13 markets active 7d ago coverage 102d
RISKYcopy with care world specialist⚠ Small sample
✗ too few resolved markets (<12) to judge✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died
Total PnL −$29 (-22%) realized −$21 · open −$8
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -52% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -56% what you keep after slip
Net edge-56%after slip
Net WR27%break-even
Win rate36%4W / 7L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$10per market
Trades / day0.1pace
Kalshi-fit100%portable
Net worth$84now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days$0
7 days−$2
14 days−$3
30 days−$3
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
politics 69% −$8
world 19% −$12
sports 11% −$9
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
insufficient sample — too few resolved markets to judge
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +27%
net ROI/market (all)-56.4%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 1 -100.0% -100.0% 0% 0% -100.0%
≤30d 4 -43.2% -48.6% 50% 50% -32.3%
≤90d 11 -51.9% -56.4% 36% 27% -55.2%
all 11 -51.9% -56.4% 36% 27% -55.2%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.1 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -56.4% 27% -55.2%
10% -60.6% 9% -59.5%
15% -64.4% 9% -63.4%
20% -67.9% 9% -67.0%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 66% · top 2 86% thin sample
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -50% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
25% wins margin < slip thin sample
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -52% · $-wt -50% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early —% → late —% no data
Add-ons / DCA
1.0 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$1 vs −$4 · ×0.33 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.19 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

102d coverage
Net worth$84
Realized−$21
Unrealized−$8
Win rate (resolved)36%
Wins / losses4 / 7
Open positions2
Markets (closed)11 / 13
History coverage102d
Avg bet$10
Trades / day0.1
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit100%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 2 History 11 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will the Democratic Party control the Senate after the 2026 Midterm elections? Yes 48¢ 42¢ $58 $51 −$7 (-11%)
2026 Balance of Power: R Senate, D House Yes 37¢ 36¢ $35 $33 −$1 (-4%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 4 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 12? Jun 10 $2 −$2 -100%
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by May 30? Jun 05 $3 $0 +11%
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by May 31, 2026? Jun 05 $6 +$1 +16%
Iran closes its airspace by June 8? Jun 05 $2 −$2 -100%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 15, 2026? May 11 $3 −$3 -100%
Israel military action against Yemen by April 15, 2026? May 11 $4 $0 +10%
Devils vs. Blues Apr 15 $3 −$3 -100%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by April 22, 2026? Apr 15 $6 −$6 -100%
Hurricanes vs. Maple Leafs Apr 10 $5 −$5 -100%
Blue Jackets vs. Canadiens Apr 10 $3 +$3 +92%
Pistons vs. Cavaliers Mar 26 $4 −$4 -100%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 12? BUY Yes 6¢ $2 6d
Iran closes its airspace by June 8? BUY No 95¢ $2 11d
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by May 30? BUY No 90¢ $3 19d
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by May 31, 2026? BUY No 86¢ $6 27d
US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 15, 2026? BUY Yes 5¢ $3 36d
US x Iran permanent peace deal by April 22, 2026? BUY Yes 26¢ $6 62d
Israel military action against Yemen by April 15, 2026? BUY No 91¢ $4 67d
Blue Jackets vs. Canadiens BUY Canadiens 52¢ $3 82d
Hurricanes vs. Maple Leafs BUY Maple Leafs 35¢ $5 88d
Will the Democratic Party control the Senate after the 2026 Midterm el BUY Yes 48¢ $58 95d
2026 Balance of Power: R Senate, D House BUY Yes 37¢ $35 98d
Pistons vs. Cavaliers BUY Pistons 56¢ $4 105d
Devils vs. Blues BUY Blues 50¢ $3 108d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $84.33 · official $84.33 (match) · 120 history records